Ainge’s Challenge: Rebuild & Contend Simultaneously
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For the last two seasons, the Boston Celtics have achieved that rare double double of making the playoffs while rebuilding their team. This year the early returns aren’t so rosy. The Celtics, who play the Knicks on Sudayay, were 5-8 before meeting the 76ers last night – and the Eastern Conference has gotten tougher than it was in past years. Should the Celtics choose between the seemingly divergent paths of contending now and contending in the future?
When the Celtics’ team president, Danny Ainge, took the job in 2003, he announced that he would make the roster younger and more athletic. It seemed like public relations blather, but Ainge lived up to his word. Not only did he move veterans like Antoine Walker, Eric Williams, and Tony Battie, he acquired Ricky Davis and a boatload of draft picks that turned into promising power forward Al Jefferson and guards Delonte West and Tony Allen. Ainge also kept his eye on the standings, and picked up Gary Payton and reacquired Walker to make playoff pushes.
This off-season was a mixed bag for Ainge. His draft picks – teenage sharpshooter Gerald Green, Providence forward Ryan Gomes, and point guard Orien Greene – all addressed needs, but his foray into the free-agent market was a disaster. He used the Celtics’ midlevel exception money on former Nets power forward Brian Scalabrine, who through 13 games this year is averaging a paltry 2.0 points and 0.9 rebounds in 9.2 minutes per game. Better young big men, notably Stromile Swift and Steven Hunter, could have been had for a similar price, and the “Veal” almost certainly could have been signed for less.
This year’s Celtics roster reflects the conflict between the team’s long-term and short-term objectives. Davis, superstar swingman Paul Pierce, center Mark Blount, and power forward Raef Lafrentz are in their primes. West, meanwhile, is getting on-the-job training at point guard, and Jefferson, reserve forward Justin Reed, and center Kendrick Perkins are still early into the upward arcs of their career. The situation seems easily resolved: Dump the veterans, play the youngsters even more, and aim to compete in two years.
Such a strategy would be consistent with Ainge’s stated aims. But a closer look at the stats suggests that the Celtics may be able to continue nurturing their dual goals.
The major difference between this year’s Celtics and last season’s model is on defense. Last season, the Celts finished 14th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions; this year, they rank 25th at 108.0.There are two major culprits. For one, shooting guard Allen, who excelled on the defensive end last season, has been out all season with a knee injury that will sideline him until mid-December at the earliest. More importantly, the Celtics’ point guards have been dismal this year.
In 2004-05, Payton started at the point for the Celts. While the 36-year-old Glove was only a shadow of his former All-Star self, he provided the team with competent offense and defense. This year, according to the Web site www.82games.com, the Celtics are getting a combined Player Efficiency Rating of 10.7 from point guards West, Dan Dickau, and Greene. (PER is a metric devised by John Hollinger to measure a player’s overall per-minute statistical contributions, where a 15.0 rating is league average.) Conversely, opposing point guards have amassed a PER of 19.0 against the Celtics.
To put it another way, the Celtics are allowing opposing point guards to put up per-game averages of 23.2 points, 9.1 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 47.7% shooting. The Celtics’ net PER of -8.3 at point guard is in contrast to net positives at shooting guard (5.9) and small forward (4.2).The scores at power forward (-2.6) and center (-5.5), argue for more playing time for Perkins and Jefferson, but it is clear that problems at the point are at the heart of the Celtics’ woes.
Fixing this problem should be Ainge’s immediate goal; if he succeeds, it could save the team’s season. Boston seems committed to finding out if the 22-year-old West can grow into the role, but coach Doc Rivers needs a better player than Dickau or Greene to help out during West’s audition. The most obvious choice is Speedy Claxton. The 27-year-old has averaged 13.2 points and 4.6 assists in 26.9 minutes a game this season with the Hornets, but is taking a back seat to red-hot rookie Chris Paul. The Mavericks’ Darrell Armstrong and free agent Frank Williams could also provide a cheap solution.
There’s another reason for Ainge to resist nuking the roster: It rarely works. The post-Jordan Bulls, the pre-Nowitzki Mavericks, and the present-day Hawks are examples of teams that tried to load up on young players and salary-cap room. Chicago and Dallas eventually began winning, but both teams endured six years of wandering in lottery-bound wilderness chewing through coaches and front-office execs before finding relevancy again.
Due to cap considerations, the Celtics would be hard-pressed to find takers for Blount, Davis, or LaFrentz. Though they were rumored to be putting Pierce on the block after his technical fouls nearly cost the Celtics Game 6 of their playoff series against Indiana last season, teams trading superstars tend to get routed in the deals – just look at how the Raptors and Lakers have fared since dealing Vince Carter and Shaquille O’Neal, respectively.
While the Celtics’ situation looks like one that calls for drastic action, a minor tweak should enable them to continue contending as they ease Jefferson, Allen, Green, et al. into larger roles. By next year or 2006-07, the team could have admirable roster depth based on a group of late-prime vets and young players starting to achieve their potential. If Ainge can resist the urge to make major trades this season, he could rewrite the book on franchise rebuilding.