Francoeur Tests Criteria For Rookie of the Year

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The New York Sun

Baseball’s Rookie of the Year award is a strange celebration. On the one hand, its tribute is obvious: singling out that player who has performed the best against more experienced competition.


On the other hand, a quick glance at history confirms that there’s very little that’s evaluative or predictive about it. While the honor has gone to such big league mainstays as Mark McGwire, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, and Albert Pujols, baseball has equally honored Pat Listach, Bob Hamelin, Ben Grieve, and Todd Hollandsworth, all fringe players who happened to get their best seasons out of the way first.


One problem unique to the Rookie of the Year award is that it often honors players who haven’t played very much. Rookies don’t always break camp with the big club, and so a start-to-finish performance is rare. Consequently, awards celebrating three great months in the major leagues are frequently handed out – a sample size small enough to qualify as a fluke.


Such is the dilemma in this year’s NL Rookie of the Year race, which consists of a handful of players with an average of about 275 plate appearances on the season. Atlanta’s Jeff Francoeur likely has the award all but wrapped up as we head down the home stretch, but lurking beneath his surprising debut season are a number of indicators that imply his sophomore campaign will be more Hollandsworth than Pujols.


Let’s start with the positives. Since being called up on July 6, Francoeur has put together a batting line of .325 AVG/.363 OBA/.618 SLG, with a Value Over Replacement Player (VORP, which measures the number of runs a player has contributed over what a freely available player – like Bubba Crosby – would produce in the same number of at-bats) rating of 23.3. Francoeur doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so ranking him among his fellow rookies is a bit problematic, but his batting average is the best among rookies with significant playing time.


On the less tangible front, Francoeur’s surprising production has helped the Braves distance themselves from a tight NL East pack and put them on a smooth road to their 14th straight division title – always a plus for the voting panels. He’s also tied for the NL lead in outfield assists with 11, five of which saw him gun down a runner at home plate. All of this has been achieved in less than half a season.


Now comes the caution. Francoeur doesn’t control the strike zone. Of his eight walks this year, three have been intentional, meaning he’s worked the count on his own just five times in 204 trips to the plate. This free-swinging approach has allowed him to see just 3.42 pitches per plate appearance, which would rank 68th in the NL if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Swinging at everything is not a formula for long-term succes. Controlling the strike zone is an important step in the development of a young player, and Francoeur just doesn’t have that ability yet. It won’t long before pitchers begin exploiting that weakness.


Francoeur’s career minor league batting average entering this season was .285, and he was only hitting .275/.322/.487 in Double-A before he was called up; his major league .325 average is likely headed downward, since players rarely learn to hit at the major-league level.


He’s also on pace to have just 247 at-bats this year, equals about 49% of a full season. So the question becomes: Is “Rookie of the Year” synonymous with “Rookie of the Whole Year” or “Rookie of Most of the Year?” In other words, should baseball honor someone who, for whatever reason, has gone to work less than half the time?


The answer is pretty clearly “yes,” unless one is prepared to argue that the mark of a good player is to produce fewer runs over a longer period of time. Players such as Houston centerfielder Willy Taveras (VORP of 11.8), Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (18.5), Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks (19.1), Nationals outfielder Ryan Church (18.1), and Rockies infielders Garrett Atkins (15.0) and Clint Barmes (16.6) all have an edge in playing time.


Francoeur has been worth more runs, though, and the question now is whether there’s enough time for him to regress to a level that better reflects his “true” ability. He’s only hit .250/.300/.556 in September, meaning the opposition may already have begun exploiting his weaknesses. If his production slips any more, Weeks or Howard are the likeliest candidates to overtake the lead in the voting. Both have been adding to their resumes during Francoeur’s recent slippage; Howard has slugged .692 so far this month and has hit five of his 16 home runs, while Weeks has hit .300/.389/.467 since September 1. Neither player has the feel-good story or the national exposure that Francoeur enjoys, though.


As an award that recognizes success, however brief that success is and regardless of whether it’s sustainable, Francoeur is a deserving candidate for this year as he has technically been the most productive rookie. But, as Yankee fans and Mets fans can attest after seeing Shane Spencer and Benny Agbayani tear up New York during their rookie seasons, a hot few months aren’t indicative of long-term career success. Francoeur still has a lot of developing to do, award or no award.



Mr. Erhardt writes for Baseball Prospectus.For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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