“I think Danny Ainge needs to fire his brain doctor.”

Those were an NBA scout’s first comments to me after hearing about the trade the Celtics’ general manager made on Thursday. In the deal, Boston agreed to send guard Ricky Davis, center Mark Blount, forward Justin Reed, and guard Marcus Banks to Minnesota for forward Wally Szcerbiak and center Michael Olowokandi.

Ainge’s “brain doctor” in this case is consultant John Niednagel, who has created a cottage industry around the idea that how players’ brains are wired determines how they react during games. It was his input that resulted in the Celtics’ five-year, $15 million offer to former Net forward Brian Scalabrine this summer. Niednagel said that Scalabrine’s “brain type” of ISTP (introverted, sensing, thinking, perceiving) was something he had in common with Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and John Stockton.

While Ainge was the one who pulled the trigger on the deal, don’t discount the brain doctor’s influence. “You can take Red Auerbach, Jerry West … all those guys that judge talent. I’d take Jon Niednagel,” Ainge famously said a few years ago, and he meant it, prying Niednagel (who isn’t really a doctor) from the Nuggets soon after taking over in Boston.

Unfortunately, “talented” was the one adjective missing from Scalabrine’s profile, which probably explains why this move worked out about as well as Shaq’s rap career. Scalabrine is averaging 2.0 points per game on 35.5% shooting for the Celtics this year, numbers that don’t surprise anybody who followed the Nets. Apparently, nobody in Boston ever asked Niednagel why, if Scalabrine’s brain was such an indicator of success, did he never enjoy any in four years with New Jersey?

Boston’s latest move involved a similar set of mystifying calculations, and one has to wonder how much Ainge was listening to Dr. Brain before he pulled the trigger. The Celtics seemed desperate to unload Blount’s contract – the six-year, $40 million deal Ainge mistakenly signed him to after an obvious fluke year two years ago – but in the trade they took back an even worse deal in the five-year, $40 million package still owed to Szczerbiak.

The trade brought two other commodities for the Celtics, if you can call them that – the lethargic Olowokandi, whose contract may be bought out in the coming days, and a future first-round pick that won’t be exercised until at least 2008. Thus, the trade essentially boils down to the four players Boston gave up for Szczerbiak and his bad contract.

Yes, Szczerbiak is a better player than Blount, but to pick him up the Celtics had to drop three young players with interesting futures.

Far and away the best of them is Davis, a solid, athletic guard with a reasonable contract who, having just turned 26, is still improving. Davis, who’s averaging 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.1 assists this season, doesn’t have Wally World’s pure stroke, but when he brings his ‘A’ game, he’s a far better defender – and with increased maturity, he’s brought that game a lot more this year.

Banks is also potentially useful, although perhaps not to the Timberwolves. There’s a decent chance the erratic Banks will eventually become a solid point guard thanks to his superb quickness. But he won’t get much of a chance in Minnesota – the T’wolves already have Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson on the roster. As a result, look for Banks to change teams again, which is allowable under the collective bargaining agreement as long as it’s a one-for-one deal. An exchange for Seattle’s Ronald Murray is a particularly hot rumor at the moment. At any rate, Banks and Reed are both free agents after the season, so they weren’t going to hold value for either team for much longer.

Still, if Minnesota can parlay Banks into a useful player, that’s another level on which they win this trade. They’re already ahead in two important areas. First, there’s Blount. He’s not the second coming of Patrick Ewing (or even of Pat Cummings), but given the dismal state of Minnesota’s centers, he’s still a big improvement. Minnesota was badly undersized in the middle, especially once they concluded Olowokandi was 73 inches of wasted space. Thus, the addition of a “real” center (Blount is 7-feet, 250 pounds), no matter how mediocre, should ease the physical burden on wiry superstar Kevin Garnett.

Second, there’s Davis vs. Szczerbiak. Followers of my work might be surprised to see me favor Davis in this analysis, because Szczerbiak is unquestionably having a better year. Through Saturday’s games, Szczerbiak’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating, my measure of a player’s per-minute statistical production) of 18.71 ranked 10th among NBA small forwards, while Davis’s 16.27 mark put him 16th.

But in this case, three other items stand out in Davis’s favor. The first, as I mentioned above, is defense. Szczerbiak has played more of it this season than in years past, but he’s still a below average defender who must be assigned to a nonscorer. Davis, on the other hand, is quick enough to defend an opponent’s top scorer, even if his effort level varies. The second item in Davis’s favor is durability. He’s missed a total of six games in the past five seasons, while Szczerbiak missed huge chunks of the 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons with foot problems. Davis’s youth also gives him an advantage in this regard — younger players tend to be injured less, and he’s 30 months younger than Wally World.

Finally, there’s the time horizon. Yes, Wally has been better this year, but if we stretch the analysis out a couple of years, his advantage shrinks. Additionally, the T’wolves dumped Szczerbiak when his stock was at its peak. This will likely be the best year of Szczerbiak’s career, if his follows a typical arc, while Davis’s best is yet to come. Add in the fact that Minnesota solved its center problem and could still get something of value for Banks, and it’s easy to see how they come out ahead.

Looking at the brain doctor’s previous client list, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Before hooking up with Ainge, Niednagel consulted with Minnesota’s Kevin McHale, Denver’s Kiki Vandeweghe, and former Orlando GM John Gabriel – none of whom have been awash in success. Then there’s his only NFL client – former San Francisco GM Terry Donahue. If you’re a Niners, fan, though, you probably call him something else. With Niednagel’s help, Donahue dragged the 49ers into the depths of football history.

At least Celtics fans can’t claim the trade ruined a good team. Despite having a superstar forward in Paul Pierce and several other promising players, the reeling Celtics are only 18-26,which has them off the fringes of playoff contention even in the lowly East. For that, they can thank Ainge – and indirectly, the so-called doctor who is advising him.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.