A Ghost of Baghdad’s Past Returns: Why Team Trump Is Fuming Over Nouri al-Maliki’s Nomination To Be Prime Minister of Iraq

President Trump is threatening to end all support to Iraq if Nouri al-Maliki returns as prime minister, setting up a high-stakes confrontation between the United States and a once-crucial Middle Eastern ally. Within hours of his threat, hundreds of protesters gathered near the American embassy in Baghdad, chanting support for the former leader and burning images of Trump and American flags.The collision represents more than political theater. Mr. Maliki was nominated late last month by the Coordination Framework, Iraq’s dominant coalition of Shiite parties, despite urgent warnings from Washington that his return could plunge the country back into the sectarian violence and corruption that defined his disastrous 2006-2014 tenure. Last week, the 75-year-old politician responded defiantly to Mr. Trump’s warning, condemning what he called Washington’s blatant interference in Iraqi sovereignty and vowing to continue his candidacy.“President Trump’s threat reflects the administration’s readiness to use more serious pressure against the Iraqi government to reduce Iranian influence or, in this case, to produce a new government that is more favorable to US interests,” the director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Victoria Taylor, tells The New York Sun.“The U.S. continues to hold significant influence in Iraq, not only in the political space, but also economically. The threat of possible sanctions or closing Iraq’s account at the Fed are significant points of leverage,” she says.For American policymakers watching Iraq teeter between competing spheres of influence, Mr. Maliki’s comeback represents a nightmare scenario they thought they had escaped. His nomination forces the Trump administration to decide whether the United States will maintain its investments in a country where nearly 4,500 American troops died and hundreds of billions of dollars were spent, or whether Washington will finally walk away from a nation increasingly controlled by Tehran’s proxies in the region.The Man Who Lost MosulMr. Maliki is the only Iraqi prime minister to have served two full terms since the 2003 American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Initially embraced by the Bush administration as a potential stabilizing force, his time in power instead became synonymous with the unraveling of American hopes for a democratic, unified Iraq.During the June 2014 northern Iraq offensive, an ISIS force of approximately 1,500 militants defeated 60,000 Iraqi soldiers, seizing Mosul in a catastrophic collapse that shocked military observers worldwide. A former commander of Iraqi ground forces later accused Mr. Maliki himself of issuing the order to withdraw from the city. The debacle exposed how years of sectarian politics and endemic corruption had hollowed out institutions that American taxpayers had spent nearly $100 billion building.Critics blamed Mr. Maliki for carrying out sectarian policies under the banner of de-Baathification, including barring nine parties and over 450 candidates from the 2010 elections, overseeing arrests of prominent Sunni politicians, and suppressing peaceful protests. These policies created fertile ground for ISIS recruitment among alienated Sunni communities who saw the extremist group as preferable to continued marginalization under Baghdad’s Shiite-dominated government.Iraq’s own parliamentary transparency commission estimated in 2018 that $320 billion has been lost to corruption since 2003, with Mr. Maliki serving as prime minister for eight of those 15 years. The Iraqi army became riddled with ghost soldiers, fictional troops whose salaries were diverted by commanders, costing the state approximately $380 million annually by 2014.Washington’s Ultimatum and Iran’s Hand“The Coalition Framework’s selection of Maliki is largely the result of dealmaking between the political elite rather than Iranian intervention, though the Iranians provided their blessing to Maliki’s nomination,” Ms. Taylor says. “The reality is that any Iraqi prime minister will need to be acceptable to both Iran and the United States.”A senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Michael Rubin, speaking from Baghdad, offers a sharper assessment of Mr. Maliki’s precarious position.“Like any political boss, Maliki can cajole and frighten. But this doesn’t mean the backing will last,” Mr. Rubin tells The Sun. “Maliki doesn’t have the support of Najaf, and behind the scenes, the maneuvering is now about the second choice after Maliki fails.”Mr. Trump’s intervention represents a straightforward American attempt to influence Iraqi politics. Days before Trump’s public threat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had already warned outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in a phone call that Washington was concerned about a pro-Iran government taking root in Baghdad. The administration also sent a letter to Iraqi politicians explicitly stating Washington’s negative view of Mr. Maliki. The coordinated diplomatic offensive underscores how seriously the administration views the threat of Mr. Maliki’s return to power at a moment when setbacks in Syria and Lebanon have weakened Iran’s regional influence.Credible Threats and Real ConsequencesMr. Rubin dismisses any notion that Trump’s threats are merely symbolic.“The threats certainly aren’t viewed as symbolic,” he says. “Pro-Iranian politicians and militia leaders are liquefying assets and moving hundreds of millions of dollars of cash into their homes. They are switching houses, changing cars, and swapping out phones.”The practical implications of cutting off support, however, remain complex. United States exports to Iraq total less than $2 billion, and Iraq could likely find another customer for the oil it sells to the United States.Severing security ties also raises questions about support for the Kurdish peshmerga and maintenance for Iraq’s F-16 fleet. “Would Iraq again turn to Russia, a country with which many senior defense officials are comfortable based on Iraq’s traditional pre-2003 defense ties?” Mr. Rubin asks.Ms. Taylor, however, believes the pressure will effectively derail Mr. Maliki’s candidacy. “The strong and very public objection from President Trump will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Maliki’s nomination to move forward,” she says. “Maliki’s nomination already faced opposition from a key Sunni political party, and there were objections from within the Framework,” Ms. Taylor says. “The US-Iraq relationship is too important for Iraq to jeopardize it for the sake of this nomination, but the Framework will now need to find a face-saving way to move forward.”Mr. Rubin suggests Mr. Maliki himself recognizes the precariousness of his position. “Maliki is setting himself up for a fall, and he’d probably be best off faking a heart attack or other medical crisis to allow himself to save face and step aside for that reason,” he says.A Regional TinderboxIf Mr. Maliki does somehow manage to return to power despite American pressure, the consequences could be catastrophic. According to Mr. Rubin, if Mr. Maliki becomes prime minister again, “Iraq should prepare to be bombed.”“While the weather forecast in Baghdad is never a mystery, they will need a drone forecast and check the skies before they go outside,” he says. The threat isn’t hyperbole. With Hezbollah weakened and Iran’s regional network under unprecedented strain, Iraq could become a sanctuary for Tehran’s proxy forces.“Hezbollah and other militias will look at Iraq as a safe-haven and will retrench inside the country, setting it down the path for real conflict,” Mr. Rubin warns.He adds a personal dimension to Mr. Maliki’s motivations, explaining the former prime minister’s defiance in the face of American pressure. “Maliki, whom I know personally, is so narcissistic that he simply does not care. For him, this is personal. He wants to avenge his earlier fall from power, which he blames, not without reason, on the United States,” he says.A parliamentary session scheduled for late January to elect a president, who would then appoint the prime minister, was canceled due to a lack of quorum, with no alternate date set. The delay suggests Iraqi politicians are struggling to navigate between American threats and Iranian pressure in a country that has long served as a proxy battleground between the two adversaries.Baghdad has recently regained a measure of stability after decades of conflict and chaos, yet continues to be economically weak and cannot afford punitive measures from the United States, which has already sanctioned several Iraqi entities for helping Tehran evade sanctions.Yet Mr. Rubin believes the regional power dynamics have fundamentally shifted in Washington’s favor, creating an opening for a different outcome.Fundamental QuestionsThe showdown between Mr. Trump and Mr. Maliki ultimately poses a fundamental question about American influence in the Middle East two decades after the invasion that was supposed to create a stable, democratic Iraq.The protesters burning American flags outside the embassy in Baghdad may be offering Washington an uncomfortable preview of what comes next — unless, as the experts suggest, Mr. Maliki’s nomination collapses under the weight of American pressure and his own diminished support within Iraq’s fractious political landscape.“Many Iraqis know that whoever comes next has to have good working ties with the US, as Iran has never been weaker,” Mr. Rubin adds. “The best thing the US can do is start subtly meeting other contenders, and there are many, although only a few have Najaf’s ‘no objection’ policy.”

A Ghost of Baghdad’s Past Returns: Why Team Trump Is Fuming Over Nouri al-Maliki’s Nomination To Be Prime Minister of Iraq

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