Cook Political Report Now Has Democrats ‘Outright’ Favored In Enough Districts To Win House

Democrats are now “outright” favored in enough seats to flip control of the House and may emerge from the midterms with a larger majority than when they flipped the chamber in 2006 and 2018, according to the Cook Political Report. In a report released on Friday, the nonpartisan analyst shifted 19 House races in Democrats’ direction. Six seats held by Republicans were moved from the “toss up” column to the “lean” Democrat column.Two open seats — Kentucky’s 6th District and Texas’s 35th District — which had been rated “Lean Republican” were shifted to the “Toss Up column.”Cook Political Report’s U.S. House editor, Erin Covey, wrote, “Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House.”“In other words, 220 seats are rated either Solid, Likely, or Lean Democrat,” she said. “Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure Toss Ups.”Ms. Covey added that Democrats, who currently hold 215 seats, could flip between 12 and 22 seats, which would give them between 227 and 237 seats. She said Republicans’ chance of keeping the chamber has “all but evaporated” and the Democrats could come out of the election with a larger majority than when the party flipped the chamber in 2006 and 2018. The report comes as a Washington Post-Schar School poll found that Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting effort may not be helping as much as the party had hoped it would. While the Cook Political Report rates Texas’ 35th District as a toss-up, the Washington Post-Schar poll found that in the neighboring 34th District, the incumbent Democrat congressman, Vicente Gonzalez, is leading the Republican candidate by seven percentage points. That race is rated as “Lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report. A former House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that Democrats “will probably win the majority.”“In the last 100 years, all off-year elections, whoever is the party in power — has the White House — has lost seats, and it’s only a few seats for the majority,” he said. A New York Times-Siena poll released on Wednesday found that Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans in the generic House ballot. The survey also found that just 34 percent of respondents say they approve of President Trump’s job performance, the lowest presidential approval rating ahead of midterm elections going back to 1946. On Wednesday, Civiqs’ state-by-state tracker released data that showed the president has a positive approval rating in just eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Mr. Trump won those states in all three of the last presidential elections. But even in some ruby-red states, the tracker finds the president is underwater by double digits.In Texas, he is 21 points underwater, and in Florida, his net approval rating is minus 15.In Mississippi, which Mr. Trump won by more than 20 points, his net approval rating is minus 11 points. In recent days, Democrats have started spending money to try to unseat the Republican senator, Cindy Hyde-Smith. On Tuesday, the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC said it is spending $1.2 million on TV ads to boost Scott Colom. Mr. Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Mississippi on Monday.

Cook Political Report Now Has Democrats ‘Outright’ Favored In Enough Districts To Win House

Cook Political Report Now Has Democrats ‘Outright’ Favored In Enough Districts To Win House

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