Democrats Gain Ground as Voter Discontent Deepens Ahead of Midterms

Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterms just got a boost as the Cook Political Report shifted 18 House seats in their favor, signaling a political landscape that continues to sour on Republican candidates amid economic strain and the war in Iran.The shakeup touched Republicans in races across the map. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn of Iowa; Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania; Bill Huizenga of Michigan; Rob Wittman and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Virginia, respectively; French Hill of Arkansas; and Victoria Spartz of Indiana all saw their races move toward Democrats. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents Susie Lee, Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, and Don Davis saw their standing strengthen. Four open seats — in Nebraska’s 2nd District, Iowa’s 2nd District, Kentucky’s 6th District, and Maine’s 2nd District — also tilted toward Democrats.“With these new moves, we’re also adjusting our range: the most likely outcome is now that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats,” wrote Cook Political Report’s U.S. House editor, Erin Covey. “At this point, Democrats only need to win 20 percent of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way.” Under that outlook, Democrats could end up holding between 224 and 234 seats, more than enough to gain control of the chamber.Notably, many of the districts that moved are ones President Trump carried in past elections — a sign that dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and foreign affairs is cracking open even reliably red territory. Kentucky’s 6th District is a prime example. “On paper, this open seat should be difficult for a Democrat to win,” Ms. Covey noted. “Trump carried the district by 15 points, and [Rep. Andy Barr], now running for Senate, won reelection by 27 points. But polling from both parties shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and former Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado neck-and-neck.”Driving much of that discontent are soaring fuel prices. Gas has climbed to a national average of $4.37 a gallon, up more than 40 percent from a year ago, while diesel — a lifeline for trucking and farming — has reached roughly $6.28 a gallon, according to AAA. Tariffs on trading partners like Canada, with whom the United States did an estimated $872 billion in trade in 2025, have also squeezed manufacturing-heavy states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine.That frustration is showing up in the numbers. A new Pew Research Center survey of 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters, conducted September 28 to October 4, found Democrats holding an eight-point edge over Republicans in House preferences, 44 percent to 36 percent. Mr. Trump’s approval rating in that poll has sunk to 30 percent, the lowest of his second term, with 68 percent disapproving. Most voters, 63 percent, saw Mr. Trump as a factor in their congressional vote — and more said their vote is “against” him (44 percent) than “for” him (19 percent).That Pew number is significantly lower than the average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, which puts Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 37.8 percent and his disapproval at 60 percent.Still, the Pew poll found Democratic voters are notably more engaged than their Republican counterparts: 78 percent said it “really matters” which party controls Congress, compared with 69 percent of Republicans, and Democrats were 14 points more likely to say they’ve given the election “a lot” of thought. Overall satisfaction with the direction of the country has cratered even among Republicans, falling to 39 percent — down from 65 percent when Mr. Trump took office.With gas prices rising, approval ratings falling, and enthusiasm gaps widening, the data paints a picture of a midterm environment increasingly stacked against the GOP — one in which some analysts believe Mr. Trump’s presence on the trail may be doing Republicans more harm than good.

Democrats Gain Ground as Voter Discontent Deepens Ahead of Midterms

Democrats Gain Ground as Voter Discontent Deepens Ahead of Midterms

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