Democrats Get a Surprise Win in New York Redistricting Case, Possibly Adding One More Seat for the Midterms

New York Democrats won a surprise victory on Wednesday afternoon when a state supreme court justice ordered that the boundaries of a deep-red district centered around the borough of Staten Island must be redrawn. If the ruling stands, Democrats are nearly guaranteed to pick up an additional House seat before voters even go to the polls in November. A lawsuit filed by Staten Island voters in October argued that New York’s 11th congressional district — currently represented by Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican — violated the state constitution. Specifically, they argued that the district lines diluted the voting power of certain minority groups. On Wednesday, state supreme court Justice Jeffrey Pearlman ruled that the 11th district would have to be redrawn, despite the maps — covering all of Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn — have largely gone unmoved for more than 40 years. “Based on the facts presented by the expert witness reports and on the record, it is clear to the Court that the current district lines … are a contributing factor in the lack of representation for minority voters,” Justice Pearlman writes. He ordered the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission to convene and draw new district lines for the 11th district by February 6. The most likely outcome is that the 11th district and the deep-blue neighboring 10th district swap two communities. Under Justice Pearlman’s order, the new 11th district would be transformed to include all of Staten Island and the southern tip of Manhattan, while the 10th district would go from being composed of southern Manhattan and western Brooklyn to instead covering eastern and southeastern Brooklyn. A small part of the southeastern tip of Manhattan would remain in the 10th district. Under this scenario, the 11th district would move from being a district that President Trump won by 24 points to one that he lost by just over three points to Vice President Kamala Harris in the last election. The 10th district would remain deep-blue, however, given that it absorbs some of the most Democratic parts of southern Brooklyn. Not only would that open up a new seat for Democrats to likely win later this year, but it could also help the party avoid what could become an ugly intraparty battle. Congressman Dan Goldman, who currently represents the 10th district, is being challenged from the left by former city comptroller Brad Lander. If Justice Pearlman’s ruling stands and the new maps are drawn as described above, then Mr. Goldman would be able to run in the new light-blue 11th district, while Mr. Lander is free to take the new 10th district, given that he lives in Brooklyn. Mr. Goldman seemed to hint in a statement on Wednesday night that he would run in the new, more competitive 11th district if the new maps become a reality. “Our top priority must be to retake the majority and make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker, and I will always place that goal first,” Mr. Goldman wrote on X, implying that he would be up for the fight in a new district. The redistricting war that Republicans kicked off last year has so far yielded them few results. The Texas gerrymander, which Mr. Trump said he was “entitled” to, may only result in the GOP picking up three seats. The California Democrats’ retaliation will likely win them four or five new seats, wiping out the gains of the Lone Star State GOP. Missouri has eliminated only one Democratic district, while Ohio Republicans made a deal with Democrats to make two Democratic seats slightly more red, while another Ohio blue seat moves from competitive to solidly Democratic. The two Republican-leaning Ohio districts could stay in Democratic hands, however. Indiana Republicans rejected the president’s demands for a new congressional map, while Democrats in Maryland are looking to eliminate their state’s one Republican seat. So far, the gains Republicans have made through the redistricting war has essentially been nullified by Democratic retaliations.

Democrats Get a Surprise Win in New York Redistricting Case, Possibly Adding One More Seat for the Midterms

Democrats Get a Surprise Win in New York Redistricting Case, Possibly Adding One More Seat for the Midterms

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