Despite the Hype, Liz Cheney Would Face Steep Odds on a 2024 Presidential Ticket

Will Congresswoman Liz Cheney run for president in 2024? That’s the question some public affairs TV hosts have for the Wyoming Republican.Over the weekend, hosts on both CNN and Fox News asked Ms. Cheney, a prominent voice on the House’s January 6 committee, whether she was considering a presidential bid in 2024 if she loses in her GOP primary August 16.On CNN, Ms. Cheney told Jake Tapper: “At this point, I haven’t made a decision on 2024,” adding, “I’m fighting hard, no matter what happens on August 16.” She said she will be working to ensure President Trump “is never anywhere close to the Oval Office ever again.”Ms. Cheney told host Bret Baier of Fox News that she is focused on “doing what is right for the country” and will “continue to be guided by making sure I do my duty.”As the Sun has previously reported, Ms. Cheney is all but certain to lose her coming primary election in Wyoming if the polls are any indication. She is currently trailing her Trump-endorsed opponent, Harrient Hageman, by 22 points.While some analysts see her as a potential conservative challenger to Mr. Trump in 2024, others argue that she could end up being more of a spoiler for the Democrats, siphoning votes from President Biden’s coalition if he runs.Whatever Ms. Cheney decides, the odds are against her at the moment, according to an associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, John Coleman.Her low approval rating among Republicans stemming from her vehement opposition to Mr. Trump means that she would be unlikely to win the GOP nomination, Mr. Coleman argues, and as an independent her chances of victory would be low.“A lot of Democrats may say they like her but at the end of the day she is still a Republican,” Mr Coleman tells the Sun. “I’ve seen speculation that she may run for president in 2024 — if it’s Biden against Trump, she may.”There is reason to expect that 2024 could be a rematch between the 2020 contenders. Mr. Biden has said that he plans to run in 2024 as long as he is in good health, and that he will almost certainly run again if Mr. Trump runs.Mr. Trump has all but announced his candidacy already, telling New York magazine he’s already made his decision and will announce in due course. “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after” the 2022 midterms, Mr. Trump said.Mr. Coleman argues that if Ms. Cheney were to run for president, even as an independent, she would end up pulling from Mr. Biden’s voter base more than Mr. Trump’s.“What Biden as a candidate offered compared to, say, Bernie Sanders, was being a safe harbor to suburbanites who used to be Republicans, and I think that’s where Liz Cheney would end up pulling from,” Mr. Coleman said.His observations line up with polling conducted in Wyoming by Mason-Dixon Polling and the Casper Star-Tribune, which suggests Ms. Cheney is more popular with Democrats than with Republicans.According to the poll, Ms. Cheney has a 53 percent approval rating among Democrats and 29 percent among independents in the state. She sits at 27 percent among Republicans.Mr. Coleman compared a race between Ms. Cheney, Mr. Trump, and Mr. Biden to the 1980 presidential election, when President Reagan defeated President Carter and Representative John Anderson ran as an independent. After a career as a liberal Republican, he drew his roughly 6 percent of the vote mostly from Mr. Carter’s supporters.Mr. Coleman posits that Ms. Cheney knows her potential to be a spoiler for Mr. Biden and would likely opt to stay out of the race. He argued that Ms. Cheney is more likely to be “a contributor to MSNBC or CNN” in 2024 rather than a presidential candidate.

Despite the Hype, Liz Cheney Would Face Steep Odds on a 2024 Presidential Ticket

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