Kyiv’s Targeting Strategy Is Gaining Against the Kremlin’s Brute Force Tactics

Through a variety of sources I have been following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One of the best I’ve found is the Institute for the Study of War’s daily report; it also provides brilliant analysis on Iran and the relationship between Communist China and the Republic of China on Taiwan. There is a surprising asymmetry between the Russian and Ukrainian drone-missile campaigns.The Russians have been using a brute force doctrine targeting civilian areas and trying to win by terrifying and exhausting civilians. Hospitals, apartment buildings, and hotels are more likely than military targets to be hit by the Russians. The Russians are also launching a shocking number of missiles, drones, and aircraft-delivered weapons.By contrast, the ISW reports on Ukrainian attacks emphasize the specific kind of targets they are hitting. In addition to their intelligent, effective targeting decisions, the sheer distance the Ukrainians are firing weapons is impressive. The first indicator of this came when the Ukrainians launched a campaign to effectively drive the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea.It had always been clear that the Ukrainians could never defeat the Russians in a traditional naval engagement. There were simply too many Russian ships, and they were more modern and powerful than their Ukrainian counterparts.So, the Ukrainians developed seaborne drones and began crippling $30 million warships with $30,000 drones. In a short time, the Russians had to abandon their great port of Sevastopol and retreat to the easternmost area of the Black Sea.Then, in an act of amazing ingenuity and cleverness, the Ukrainians put together a group of 18-wheeler trucks and outfitted them with sophisticated drones. In an operation worthy of James Bond, the trucks drove to carefully selected sites inside Russia. On command from Ukraine, simultaneously their roofs rolled back and the drones attacked Russian warplanes on airfields that were supposedly too far away for Ukraine to threaten. It was an astonishingly effective attack. The damage done to Russian equipment and morale was astonishing.Kyiv currently has two strategic campaigns underway. First, the Ukrainians are strategically working to cripple the Russian oil and gas system by targeting primary production, storage, and distribution centers. These are stable, geographically definable targets that they can reach consistently and accurately. Every few days, ISW reports another attack on a strategic center for oil and gas production, refining, or storage. In the amazing pattern of the modern world, commercial satellite coverage picks up fires and heat plumes in Russia. This allows Ukraine and everyone else to verify that these attacks are happening. There is considerable evidence from Russian steps to ration and control gasoline consumption that the attacks are having an effect, and the available petrochemicals have dropped substantially.Kyiv, too, has decided it now has enough strength to cut off Crimea and make it impossible for the Russians to remain on the Peninsula. This interdiction campaign started at almost the beginning of the war. Ukraine went after the Kerch Bridge and damaged it, but the extraordinarily massive structure proved hard to collapse. At the same time, the steady frequency Ukrainian attacks has forced the Russians to retain huge forces on and around the bridge to defend it. Meanwhile, other logistics channels, including ferries, trucks, and rail, have been targeted and consistently destroyed or crippled by the Ukrainian effort.Importantly, in all of Ukraine’s campaigns, the Russian air defenses have been inadequate. The Ukrainians seem to be able to strike at will.Despite Ukraine’s clear successes, Russia continues its four-year-long terror campaign of hitting major cities and causing as much random damage as possible to no strategic effect.Further, the world’s historic record is filled with grim reminders that cities can endure an amazing amount of punishment and continue functioning. Think of London during the German Blitz — or German and Japanese cities during the allied bombing campaigns.Whether the Russians have been reduced to this kind of area attack because they lack the ability to target precisely — or whether they are firing in volleys with minimum aim as a matter of their doctrine for war — is impossible to say. However, the contrast between the two approaches is remarkable.As a reminder, when the war started even some of America’s top military officials believed Ukraine would be defeated after three days. The war has now lasted longer than all of World War I — and Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand.

Kyiv’s Targeting Strategy Is Gaining Against the Kremlin’s Brute Force Tactics

Kyiv’s Targeting Strategy Is Gaining Against the Kremlin’s Brute Force Tactics

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