Liberals Likely To Expand Majority on Wisconsin Supreme Court, a Bellwether for November

On Tuesday, Wisconsin will elect the newest member of its state supreme court, and all signs point to an expanded liberal majority for at least the next year. Despite garnering less attention than the 2025 state supreme court race, the results of this year’s campaign will be a better indicator of how Democrats are set to fare in the midterms. Wisconsin elects its supreme court justices in statewide elections, and while the races are technically nonpartisan, the state’s Democratic and Republican parties always line up behind a chosen candidate. This year, Democrats are lining up behind appellate Judge Chris Taylor while Republicans are backing appellate Judge Maria Lazar. Judge Taylor and the groups supporting her are already outspending Judge Lazar 15-to-1 in the race to replace a retiring conservative justice. If Judge Taylor does win on Tuesday, the court would have five liberal members and just two conservatives. “Our courts are our last line of defense,” Judge Taylor said in an ad she began running in February. “I’ve spent my career standing up for Wisconsin families, for abortion rights, and domestic violence survivors, and I’ll keep protecting Wisconsin on the state supreme court.”The race for the court this year has drawn far less attention and far less money than the 2025 race, when the liberals kept their 4–3 majority. More than $100 million was spent on that race, which focused heavily on abortion rights, the state’s legislative maps, and Elon Musk, who was deeply invested in the race. He campaigned on behalf of the conservative candidate and even handed out two $1 million checks to voters. This year, just $6 million has been spent on behalf of both Judge Taylor and Judge Lazar. Judge Taylor has a total of $5.6 million being spent to try to elect her, while Judge Lazar has less than $400,000. Judge Lazar’s campaign has focused squarely on returning the court to some semblance of balance, rather than enshrining a liberal supermajority for several more years. “Politician Chris Taylor wants a seat on the Wisconsin supreme court, creating a liberal supermajority, giving the [Democratic] governor more power,” a Dane County GOP radio ad states. “Protect your wallet and the balance of the court. Vote Judge Lazar on April 7th.”After liberals officially took the majority on the court in 2024, the justices mandated that state legislative maps be redrawn, giving Democrats a fighting chance at winning control of the legislature. Now, with the new maps in place, Wisconsin’s top Republicans are set to leave office. State assembly speaker Robin Vos, who has held the position for more than a decade, and Senate majority leader Devin LeMahieu, have both said they will not seek re-election this year as Democrats look to form the first blue trifecta government in nearly two decades. Turnout so far is down significantly compared to last year. As of Thursday, about 100,000 fewer ballots have been submitted for this court race compared to the 2025 campaign. Last year, 50 percent of all voting-age Wisconsinites cast ballots in the supreme court race; this year’s number is expected to be far lower. The Marquette University Law School poll director, Charles Franklin spoke to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about the turnout and predicted that turnout could fall into the low thirties or high twenties, much more in line with voter turnout for past supreme court campaigns before the overturning of Roe v. Wade. In the state’s most liberal areas, however, the percentage of votes relative to the statewide total are holding steady, signaling Democrats are keeping pace. According to an analysis by Bolts, as of Wednesday, the number of votes coming from Milwaukee and Dane counties — home to the cities of Milwaukee and Madison, respectively — make up 31.5 percent of all votes cast so far. In 2025, those two counties made up 31.3 percent of the total statewide vote. In the conservative Milwaukee suburbs, however, the percentage of votes has fallen short — a strong indicator that Republicans are falling short in this court race. As of Wednesday, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties — collectively known as the critical “WOW Counties” — make up only 18.3 percent of ballots cast thus far. By the end of the 2025 race, the percentage of votes from the WOW Counties was 19.5 percent of all statewide ballots cast.

Liberals Likely To Expand Majority on Wisconsin Supreme Court, a Bellwether for November

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