Republicans Brace for Likely Cornyn Loss in Expected Low-Turnout Primary Runoff

Senate Republicans are bracing for the likely defeat of Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Texas Republican primary runoff, with turnout far down from the first round in March and Mr. Cornyn’s challenger, Ken Paxton, having won President Trump’s endorsement. If Mr. Cornyn is defeated, Democrats are expected to put up a real fight for the Senate seat that has been held by a Republican since 1961. Mr. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate for nearly a quarter-century, is being challenged by Mr. Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Mr. Cornyn has accused his opponent of being an opportunistic crook who will put Republicans up and down the Texas ballot at risk come November. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Mr. Cornyn said back in March when he narrowly came in first in the initial primary vote. Now, it appears Mr. Cornyn’s nightmare is likely to become reality. Based on polling averages, Mr. Paxton leads him by anywhere from seven to 15 points in the primary runoff election. The most recent poll — taken after Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Paxton last week — shows Mr. Paxton with a 22-point lead over the incumbent, 57 percent to 35 percent. Besides the president’s endorsement and the significant polling lead, Mr. Paxton holds another key data point indicating a strong victory: low Republican turnout in the runoff campaign. With only the most diehard base voters turning in ballots, Mr. Paxton will almost certainly benefit. As of Monday, turnout for the Republican runoff is far lower than it was in March, when more than two million ballots were cast in the GOP primary. According to the Texas Division of Elections, just about 543,000 votes had been cast in the Republican primary by midday on the last day of early voting, which was Friday. Even after Mr. Trump issued his endorsement last week, Mr. Cornyn declined to drop out of the race. He told reporters at the Capitol that his team thinks they still have a pathway to defeating Mr. Paxton. “We’ve got the best team, the best plan of any election I’ve run in and we intend to execute it,” Mr. Cornyn said. Mr. Cornyn told The New York Sun last week that he had not spoken to the president since he issued the endorsement for Mr. Paxton. In his message announcing his backing of Mr. Paxton, Mr. Trump mentioned that Mr. Cornyn had questioned the now-president’s political viability during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. At the time in 2023, Mr. Cornyn said that Mr. Trump’s time had “passed” and that the GOP should look for a different presidential nominee headed into the 2024 election. Asked if he regretted that comment, Mr. Cornyn noted that some of his Republican colleagues had said much worse things about Mr. Trump over the course of the last decade. “Go back and look and see what JD Vance and Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio said, and by comparison — I think the word somebody used was ‘anodyne’ by comparison,” Mr. Cornyn said. The senator also doubled down on his claims that Mr. Paxton “absolutely” poses a threat as the nominee to the Republican Senate majority, as well as down-ballot campaigns for Congress, the Texas state legislature, and local offices. With the Hispanic vote that helped catapult Mr. Trump to victory in 2024 unlikely to be as enthusiastic for Mr. Paxton in the midterms, and with Democrats growing their base, the statewide edge that Republicans have held since 1993 — the last time Texas voted for a Democratic U.S. senator — is narrowing. Even as several pollsters say the general election still leans “likely Republican” in the fall, even after Mr. Trump’s endorsement, Republicans are sounding the alarm. The Democratic candidate, state representative James Talarico, has been building a campaign war chest worth tens of millions of dollars. Mr. Paxton, on the other hand, has been trailing significantly in the fundraising battle, having raised just $7.6 million for his campaign according to the most recent financial disclosures. Mr. Cornyn by comparison has raised $13.5 million and Mr. Talarico has raised more than $40 million. Mr. Paxton’s alleged marital infidelities, past federal indictment for securities fraud, and accusations from subordinates that he had been bribed by a donor have all plagued his candidacy. “As I’ve said before, I think when it comes to winning elections, it starts with quality candidates. Then, you’ve gotta have a record of accomplishments to run on. You’ve got to have resources to get that message out,” the Senate majority leader, Senator John Thune, told reporters after Mr. Trump issued his endorsement.

Republicans Brace for Likely Cornyn Loss in Expected Low-Turnout Primary Runoff

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