Russia-Ukraine Naval Free Fire Zone Turns the Black Sea Into a Dead Sea

For the first time since World War II, the Black Sea is an economic dead zone. This year, Black Sea shipping has lost more ships and sailors than the Strait of Hormuz has lost the American-Israeli attack on Iran last February. Now, Russian and Ukrainian ports stand idle, putting at risk 100 million tons of grain from the summer-fall harvest.“For weeks I have watched Odesa’s central port almost daily,” Canadian analyst Michael Bociurkiw blogged Sunday from his apartment at Ukraine’s storied Black Sea port. “In the past three weeks, I’ve seen exactly one commercial vessel move: the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier Golden Arrow, with an Egyptian crew, which slipped out under cover of darkness earlier this month.” From 400 ships in July, ship departures fell to 10 in September.Every summer and fall, almost one third of the world’s internationally traded wheat flows south from the black earth belt of Russia and Ukraine. This harvest crosses the Black Sea to enter the world market. It feeds — and helps keep prices low — in such overpopulated countries as Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia.“Putin will get to [a] ceasefire only when the leaders of countries such as Algeria, Egypt, and India pick up the phone to tell him that their food security is at risk,” Carnegie Endowment analyst Thomas de Waal writes in an essay “A Black Sea Truce Is About Global Food Security, Too.” He estimates that Russian bombings have taken out almost half of Ukraine’s port storage capacity.Today, Black Sea shipping is paralyzed. Russia and Ukraine are locked in a no-holds-barred naval war of the kind not seen in the region since the Soviet Navy’s Black Sea Fleet bested the Axis powers in 1944. Yesterday, the crew of a Greek container ship, the Contship Jet, abandoned ship after it was struck by three sea drones in waters off the coast of Bulgaria. Sea drones are often remote-controlled motorboats packed with TNT. Starting its voyage in Haifa, Israel, the Contship was the sixth merchant vessel hit this month in Bulgarian waters. Two sank.This year, more than 570 vessels have been hit in the Black Sea, killing at least 40 sailors, according to maritime security company Ambrey. By contrast, since February, Iranian rockets and mines in the Strait of Hormuz have damaged 114 ships and killed 24 sailors.Today, few shipowners want to send their vessels into this shooting gallery. Those that do send their oldest ships. Insurance is calculated on the value of a hull. As a result, insurance costs are lower for a 50-year-old ship than for a 5-year-old ship. Last month, Lloyd’s raised virtually the entire Black Sea to its highest risk level.Before the war, Ukraine sent 90 percent of its grains and metal exports through its Black Sea ports, largely the big three in Odesa Region — Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. Now, Ukraine and Russia scramble to find alternative routes. In one expensive work around, Russia sends Black Sea grain by truck and train 1,000 miles north to its ports on the Baltic.Ukraine’s alternative, the Danube, has been of little use this year. Drought and heatwaves in Europe lowered water levels to as low as one third of normal. While this was a boon to archeologists studying World War II wrecks, even the most shallow barges could not go up river. As water levels return to normal, Russian drones are hitting ships at the Sulina canal, Romania’s main access point to the Danube. Two weeks ago, two chemical tankers were hit by air drones as they rocked in anchor near the mouth of the canal. Last Friday, a drone hit and sank a container ship near the canal. The largely Ukrainian crew was rescued, but four men were lost.“It is part of Russia’s escalation process in its war in Ukraine,” Romanian President Nicusor Dan told reporters in Bucharest. This month, Russian drones have hit nine commercial ships off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, leaving at least 34 sailors dead or missing. Both nations are members of NATO.Romanian Air Force F-16 pilots now routinely shoot down drones entering Romanian air space. Most are Russian, but some are Ukrainian, knocked off course by Russian jamming. To help identify Russian air and sea drones France is temporarily stationing an Atlantique 2 maritime patrol airplane at Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base. Located 12 miles from the Black Sea coast, this base has a 2-mile concrete runway. It is undergoing a nearly $3 billion, 10 square mile expansion to become NATO’s largest air base in Europe.“We’re looking at the Black Sea as a global food artery,” Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Toiu told a security conference in Warsaw earlier two weeks ago. “It is currently, unfortunately, the deadliest sea when it comes to the number of casualties of sailors in the last months. That means we need to increase our investments in deterrence, defence.”With Ukraine’s ports largely paralyzed, Ukraine tries to move grain by truck or train. Ukraine has 13,500 miles of rail tracks, Europe’s third largest network, after Germany and France. However, Ukraine’s state railroad Ukrzaliznytsia says Russia this year has bombed more than 1,700 rail facilities in Ukraine, including stations, locomotives and passenger wagons.Coupled with Russia’s attacks on ports and on ships, the Kremlin’s aim seems to be to render Europe’s largest nation landlocked.

Russia-Ukraine Naval Free Fire Zone Turns the Black Sea Into a Dead Sea

Russia-Ukraine Naval Free Fire Zone Turns the Black Sea Into a Dead Sea

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