Season’s Final Special Election, in New York, Could Set the Tone for Fall Campaign

The late special election in New York’s 19th is the last bellwether election before November’s midterms.

AP/Hans Pennink
The race to replace Antonio Delgado, pictured, who resigned to become New York's lieutenant governor, will be the last special election before November. AP/Hans Pennink

There’s one bellwether left in the run-up to November, and after mixed results in other elections this summer, the special election in New York’s 19th congressional district could set the tone for the remainder of the campaign season.

The race is to replace Representative Antonio Delgado, who was appointed lieutenant governor after Brian Benjamin was indicted on federal charges including bribery, falsification of records, and wire fraud.

Mr. Delgado occupied the seat after winning the 2018 election against Congressman John Faso, who himself took the seat in 2016. Before Mr. Delgado won, the seat in New York’s Catskills and Hudson Valley region had been held by Republicans since 2010.

The special election is looking like it’s going to be tight, at least in the opinion of Mr. Faso. He tells the Sun that he expects the Republican candidate to win, but that “this is a very competitive district.”

The Republican candidate is the Dutchess County executive, Marcus Molinaro, who will be facing off on August 24 against the Democratic nominee, Patrick Ryan, the Ulster County executive.

This is the final special election before the unofficial start of campaign season on Labor Day, and the last bellwether before November. So far, such bellwether races have delivered mixed results.

In June, a special election in Texas’s 34th district delivered an upset victory for the GOP when voters elected Mayra Flores as the first Republican to represent the district since reconstruction.

In July, Nebraska’s first district backed a Republican congressman, Mike Flood, over the Democratic nominee, Patty Pansing Brooks. The race was seen as a sign of slowing momentum for the GOP because the party won the district by only six points after carrying it by 22 points in 2020.

On August 2, Kansans went to the polls to vote on a ballot measure that would have allowed state legislators to ban abortion. Voters resoundingly rejected the measure.

Most recently, a special election in Minnesota’s first district delivered a lukewarm victory for the GOP when Congressman Brad Finstad won the district by only four points, outperforming his scandal-ridden predecessor, Congressman Jim Hagedorn, by one point, and underperforming President Trump by six points. 

New York’s 19th district, then, will be the final data point heading into election season and could demonstrate building Democratic or Republican momentum going into November.

A professor of political science at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, argues that the race has flown under the radar of both parties even though the district voted for President Trump in 2016 and President Biden in 2020.

“National and party attention to it seems really low in terms of interpreting stuff for November,” he said. “I think victory for either side is just victory — you’re not going to grade too much against the curve on this one.”

Going into the election, the small amount of polling that has been done gives Mr. Molinaro a big lead. The Republican Freedom Counsel as well as Triton Polling found Mr. Molinaro 10 points ahead in July.

In June, a poll backed by Mr. Ryan’s campaign and conducted by Public Policy Polling found Mr. Ryan trailing Mr. Molinaro by three points.

Mr. Molinaro also enjoys a larger budget than Mr. Ryan, having raised about $1.5 million compared to Mr. Ryan’s $1.1 million, though Mr. Ryan started fundraising much later than Mr. Molinaro.

In terms of the issues, the race is a microcosm of the larger national environment, with Mr. Molinaro’s messaging focusing on inflation, crime, and approval of President Biden. Mr. Ryan’s campaign is addressing jobs, climate change, income inequality, and the fight against a national ban on abortions. He has also targeted crime as an issue.

Mr. Arbour argues that each candidate is a fairly representative example of his party and that neither nominee has the same sort of charisma that Mr. Delgado brought to the race, making the race a good test of voter attitudes.

“If Democrats win it’s probably a good signal that political fortunes have turned in their favor a little bit,” he said. “None of that takes away from my expectation that Republicans win the House in November.”


The New York Sun

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