Which Restricted Free Agents May Move?

The first full week of the offseason has come and gone and left tremors, especially in Los Angeles and Philadelphia. The Los Angeles Clippers gained guard Baron Davis and lost forward Elton Brand, who bolted for the 76ers after enough he said/he said drama to fill a season’s worth of a daytime TV dramaThose two — plus Gilbert Arenas, the Washington Wizards guard who re-signed with Washington — comprised the top tier of free agents. The rest of the pool of unrestricted free agents — players who can sign with any team without their former club having a chance to match the new deal — thins out pretty quickly after that. There’s former Knick Kurt Thomas, available to teams that feel they are only a 35-year-old power forward from title contention. There are head cases, such as swingman Ricky Davis and center Kwame Brown, and med cases such as point guard Shaun Livingston. There is talent if you search carefully — which is what San Antonio did in signing guard Roger Mason, who will immediately become an upgrade over recently departed Brent Barry — but most of what’s left among the restricted free agent class are risks and role players.That means attention turns to the restricted free agent class. Restricted free agents rarely draw as much attention, because their clubs have the right to match any contract offer within seven days of the pact reaching the league office. Most contracts are matched in the amount of time it takes for the e-mail to reach league NBA headquarters, but this year might be different. The Knicks and Nets aren’t the only teams with a furtive eye on the summer of 2010 when a dream team-worth of players (if you have seen a sneaker or cell phone ad with an NBA star, you know who I’m talking about) will be among the unrestricted free agents. Thus some teams will be happy not to match offers, which won’t range much higher than the mid-level exception of $5.8 million a year. Also, more than a few teams have surplus talent at certain positions and would be happy to see a competing contract offer help resolve the roster situation. So who’s going and who’s staying? Let’s look at the prospects.Josh Smith, Atlanta. Smith is 22 and on the rise. He’s a brilliant shot blocker who sent back nearly three a game last season. Although a smidge undersize for a power forward, he runs the floor well, and his dunks are the sort of thing that YouTube was made to archive. The downside is that except for the dunks, Smith’s offensive game is a work in progress. The Atlanta team ownership situation is a mess, which may explain why Smith, an Atlanta native, hasn’t been signed to a big-money contract extension yet. Once he receives an offer, the Atlanta bosses may actually take a couple of days to arrive at a decision that is a no-brainer and match the deal.Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia. Iguodala is one player who should fire his agent. He turned down a five-year, $57 million extension from the Sixers last fall. I assume that people don’t walk away from that kind of money unless someone’s telling them to do so. Iguodala is an excellent all-around ballplayer who will combine with Brand and second-year swingman Thaddeus Young to comprise the nucleus of the next Eastern Conference powerhouse. Since most other teams can only match half of the $57 million offer, expect the Sixers to put it back on the table. The Sixers will be an expensive winner, but their ownership tolerated being an expensive mediocrity for years.Emeka Okafor, Charlotte. Here’s a player who could change teams. Okafor turned down a $13 million-a-year extension with the Bobcats to test his value in free agency. He has had testy exchanges with the new management team in Charlotte, and they are open to sign and trade options. Okafor is a walking double-double when healthy, but last season was the first time since his rookie year that injuries didn’t sideline him for a significant chunk of time.Luol Deng, Chicago. Deng, the man the Bulls wouldn’t trade for Kobe Bryant, turned down a five-year, $57.5 million extension last fall, then had a down year. The Bulls figure to match any offer but may just put the old contract back on the table.Ben Gordon, Chicago. Gordon turned down a five-year, $50 million offer and may go to his grave hating his agent. He’s a small two guard who shoots a little below the league average. In the meantime, with the additions of Derrick Rose and Larry Hughes and the emergence of Thabo Sefolosha, the Chicago backcourt has gotten crowded. The Bulls are unlikely to match any offer Gordon receives.Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Golden State. Both have yet to turn 23 and are skilled players on a team that lost Davis, its public face. However, since both players figure to get significantly better, there might be some squabbling on the length of the contract, with the Warriors wanting more years and Ellis and Biedrins trying to position themselves for a quick return to the free agent market.Josh Childress, Atlanta. Childress is an ideal sixth man. Despite a weird-looking shot, he’s an efficient scorer and an excellent defender who can play both wing positions. However, Atlanta has a surplus of wing players and probably won’t want to spend the full mid-level on a reserve. Some team will, and they will be very happy with the addition to their roster.mjohnson@nysun.com

Which Restricted Free Agents May Move?

Which Restricted Free Agents May Move?

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