Talarico Leads Both Cornyn and Paxton in Texas General Election, Poll Shows

As the only major party candidate in the Senate race in Texas with a guaranteed spot in the general election, state Representative James Talarico is getting good news this morning. According to a highly respected polling firm in the state, Mr. Talarico leads both Senator John Cornyn and state attorney general Ken Paxton in hypothetical matchups. Mr. Talarico narrowly won a primary over Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett earlier this year, clearing the 50 percent hurdle needed to avoice a runoff. On the GOP side, Messrs. Cornyn and Paxton each received less than 45 percent, forcing them to face off again next month. With their hopes of taking back the Senate rising, Democrats may end up taking another look at the Texas race this year, despite past heartbreaks. According to the most recent Federal Election Commission records, Mr. Talarico raised more than $40 million between September and March. He currently has $9 million in his warchest. The good news kept coming on Tuesday whenTexas Public Opinion Research released a poll showing Mr. Talarico leading either Republican candidate in the general election. He is beating Mr. Cornyn by three points — which is within the margin of error of 3.3 points — 44 percent to 41 percent. He holds a wider, five-point lead over Mr. Paxton, 46 percent to 41 percent. The poll recorded responses from 1,081 likely general election voters. The Texas Tribune first reported the poll results. “Both Cornyn and Paxton draw their strongest support from white, non-college-educated, and rural voters. Talarico leads college-educated voters by 10 points against Cornyn and 14 against Paxton, while the Republicans hold only single-digit advantages with non-college voters,” Texas Public Opinion Research writes in its polling memo. A big problem for the GOP is that its candidates are either underwater in their favorable rating or only slightly on the positive. Messrs. Cornyn and Paxton have a net negative favorable ratings of minus 15 points and minus 10 points, respectively, with Mr. Paxton polling better among registered Republicans but Mr. Coryn doing better with Independents. President Trump is two points underwater while Governor Greg Abbott has a net positive favorable rating of only two points. Compare that to Mr. Talarico, who has a net positive rating of plus 7 percent. Fellow state representative Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor, has a net positive rating of plus 11 percent. “Affordability is the top issue in Texas,” Texas Public Opinion Research found. “21 percent of likely voters cite affordability and the cost of living as the issue elected oﬃcials should prioritize most — more than double the next-closest issue. Affordability ranks first across Black, Latino, and white voters.”

Talarico Leads Both Cornyn and Paxton in Texas General Election, Poll Shows

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