‘The Oracle’ of Nevada Politics Predicts Narrow Harris Win in Silver State

The editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, who has been called “the oracle” of the state’s politics, is making the surprising projection that Vice President Harris will win his state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday. He has warned in the past, however, that his system is not perfect. In a blog post on his website Monday, Mr. Ralston said that Ms. Harris is likely to win the state, but he says the margin will likely be less than one percentage point. He also predicts that the state’s incumbent senator, Senator Rosen, will win reelection by a healthier margin of five points. “There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote,” Mr. Ralston writes, referring to the infamous “Reid Machine” that drives Democratic turnout in the state that was organized more than a decade ago by Senator Reid. Mr. Ralston added that the organization, which has helped statewide Democrats win in difficult races, will likely be enough to overcome the current GOP lead in early and mail voting, as well as the slight lead President Trump currently holds over Ms. Harris in the state. “It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead — along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause,” Mr. Ralston writes. He says Ms. Harris will win the state by just three-tenths of one percent — 48.5 percent to 48.2 percent. “I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie,” he writes. “I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close.”Ms. Rosen has held a relatively large lead over her Republican opponent in this year’s Senate race, Army Captain Sam Brown. Mr. Ralston projects that Ms. Rosen will win reelection by a five-point margin, 50 percent to 45 percent. “I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Sen. Jacky Rosen has this cycle. It has been almost flawless. She raised a fortune, then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary pummeling him on abortion,” Mr. Ralston says. The editor himself has cautioned in the past that these are just projections based on data as well as a “gut” feeling. In October, Mr. Ralston warned that his “crystal ball” has some “cracks” in it that make his predictions fallible. “My crystal ball has cracks in it. It’s very, very difficult with this new orientation to try to predict. But my predictions are not just based on data; they’re also based on sources on the ground and even just my gut instinct,” Mr. Ralston told New York Magazine. “And I have to tell you, I had a feeling in 2020 and 2016 toward the end that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were going to win the state, even if not by a great margin.”Mr. Ralston’s record as “the oracle,” however, has many Democrats delighting at his new projection of a Harris–Rosen sweep. He accurately predicted that Senator Cortez-Masto would narrowly win her reelection campaign in 2022, while the state incumbent Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, would lose his race to Republican challenger Joe Lombardo. He similarly predicted wins by President Biden and Senator Clinton in 2020 and 2016, respectively, as well as Ms. Rosen’s 2018 victory. Nevada has been one of the hotly contested states of the last three presidential election cycles. Mrs. Clinton won it by only two points in 2016, while Mr. Biden carried it by three points in 2020. Republicans have invested heavily in the state this year, not only at the presidential and Senate levels, but at the House level as well. Three of the four House seats in Nevada are currently occupied by Democrats, and all three districts are seen as competitive.

‘The Oracle’ of Nevada Politics Predicts Narrow Harris Win in Silver State

‘The Oracle’ of Nevada Politics Predicts Narrow Harris Win in Silver State

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