Welcome to Washington: Republicans’ Chances of Keeping the Senate Increase Dramatically

Between now and November, there will be countless stories written about the impressive recruitment wins Democrats scored for Senate races this year — a popular former governor, two former lawmakers who significantly outran the top of the 2024 ticket, and a gold medal paralympian, to name a few. Republicans, however, just won a major structural advantage, which could help the GOP hold the Senate majority. Welcome to Washington, where lawmakers are on their first lengthy summer break of the campaign season. Incumbents are back home glad-handing, marching in parades, and raising money. For decades, it has been the law of the land that candidates are not permitted to coordinate to an unlimited degree with national political parties — until now. Last week, as legal observers turned their eyes to landmark rulings on birthright citizenship and the 14th Amendment, immigration protections for Haitian nationals, and bans on transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, another decision of equal importance failed to garner as much attention. National Republican Senatorial Committee vs. Federal Election Commission is a decision that will allow much greater coordination between national parties and individual federal candidates.As it stands, Republican Senate candidates — lagging far behind in fundraising — are metaphorically about to watch the cavalry arrive thanks to a cash-flush GOP and a cash-strapped Democratic Party. In the court’s majority opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh writes that the federal limits on party–candidate coordination are a violation of the First Amendment.In keeping with the court’s jurisprudence on campaign spending as speech, Justice Kavanaugh argues for himself and the other five justices in the majority that the court is now allowing political parties to “participate more freely and compete more fully in the political process, and to coordinate more closely with their candidates.” “It is of course true that parties and their candidates often work closely together … That is the nature of political parties and campaigns. But their interests are not identical,” Justice Kavanaugh writes. Later on, he notes the hypocrisy of some of the court’s past critics who have railed against decisions like Citizens United, which guaranteed the First Amendment speech rights of outside groups to advocate for or against certain candidates. He argues that the NRSC v. FEC decision will actually help level the playing field among ardently partisan groups, writing that, “weakened political parties distort the political system.”“And in the views of many, the relatively diminished political parties have ushered in increased political polarization and fragmentation,” Justice Kavanaugh writes. In another time, when both political parties were on equal financial footing, this decision would seem to be a boon for the echelons of both the national Democratic and Republican parties. Leaders who spend days at a time reading polling data and strategy memos would be empowered to exert greater control, helping candidates from Alaska to Florida and everywhere in between hone a coherent message for their respective states. With significant mismanagement of the Democratic National Committee, however, the GOP is set to be the big winner in the wake of this case. Much like the problem for Democrats nationally — that voters, polls find, dislike the party and its leaders — donors with thick wallets distrust the party’s leadership. According to the most recent FEC filings, the Democratic National Committee is so far behind the Republican National Committee in terms of campaign cash that it is almost hard to believe. At the end of the second quarter, the DNC had just under $15 million in the bank against more than $18.3 million in outstanding debts — a deficit of more than $3 million. The RNC, meanwhile, had more than $125 million on hand, with zero debts. Democrats have their own financial advantages, to be sure. Senate candidates in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Georgia have all outraised their GOP opponents, whether or not they be incumbents. Cash going directly to campaigns has always been the most effective way to support a candidate given the campaigns’ abilities to do things their own way, though the $7,000 donation limit makes things more difficult.The NRSC v. FEC decision is especially important now that parties with cash on hand — meaning, at this point, the Republicans — can step in and exercise their speech rights on behalf of their candidates. The fact that individuals can give more than $44,000 to a party per cycle doesn’t hurt, either.

Welcome to Washington: Republicans’ Chances of Keeping the Senate Increase Dramatically

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