Welcome to Washington: The Cash Cavalry Arrives for the GOP

By the time polls close on November 3, more than $11.5 billion will likely have been spent on political advertisements this cycle. At the beginning of the year, it appeared that Democrats were poised to have a large money advantage as their candidates raised cash hand over fist. Now, however, Republican candidates may be getting a much-needed boost in the post-Labor Day stretch. Welcome to Washington, a city that lawmakers plan to avoid like the plague between now and November. The House will likely return at the beginning of next week for just a few days before heading home. The Senate is currently scheduled to be in session for three weeks beginning Monday, though — as the saying goes — the smell of jet fumes from Reagan National Airport always finds a way to lure lawmakers out of town ahead of schedule. Control of Congress next year is going to come down to only about 25 seats across both the House and Senate — a remarkably small number that’s the a result of mid-decade redistricting efforts by Republicans last year and by the general polarization across the country, with Democrats struggling in rural America and the GOP facing headwinds in the suburbs. After losing control of all levers of power in the last election, Democrats believed that, come 2026, their best possible outcome would be picking up maybe 15 or 20 House seats. As of this writing, there are only three sitting House Republicans serving in districts Vice President Harris carried in 2024, compared to 13 House Democrats representing districts President Trump carried in the last election. That was before seven GOP-led states redrew their congressional district lines to better favor Republicans. On the Senate front, to retake the majority, Democrats have to defend two seats in states that were carried by the president, hold on to two seats in states Mr. Trump lost by fewer than five points in 2024, and then pick up an additional four seats in states that Mr. Trump won, some of which he carried by double digits. At the outset, it appeared Democrats would be the ones playing defense headed into this year’s midterms. Democratic voters, however, delivered for their chosen candidates. Across the four Senate races Democrats have declared to be their must-win states — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska — the four Democratic nominees have raised a combined $97 million. The Republican candidates in those same states have raised only $56 million altogether. In one of Democrats’ “reach” states, Texas, the Democratic nominee has raised more than $68 million, versus his GOP opponent who has garnered just $9.2 million, based on the most recent FEC filings. That significant cash advantage for Democratic candidates was seen as a real win for the opposition party for a specific reason — that individual campaigns pay less for television advertising than outside spending groups or party committees under federal regulations. Even though GOP committees had outraised their Democratic counterparts, the fact that Democratic candidates were outraising their opponents essentially made the money race a stalemate. That was until the Supreme Court last week declared — in an eight to one order — that the outside committees, too, were entitled to the same lower rates to which individual candidates are entitled, at least for now. The court, in its unsigned order, placed a hold on a lower court ruling that blocked the lower ad rate for political committees. The court wrote that forcing the political committees to pay the higher rate would be akin to “hampering their efforts to reach the electorate in the critical weeks leading up to the midterms.” Only Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented.That order comes on top of a decision from earlier this year in which the court declared that outside committees could actively coordinate with individual candidates — an action that had been illegal for decades. Now, the major Republican groups — including the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee — have essentially been unshackled to coordinate with and buy cheaper ads on behalf of their chosen candidates. The RNC, NRCC, and NRSC have a combined $278 million across their accounts. Their three Democratic counterparts, meanwhile, have only $118 million.While the order from the Supreme Court breathes a small amount of life into some GOP candidacies, the real juggernaut will be Mr. Trump himself. His personal super PAC, MAGA Inc., has at least $400 million on hand, according to the most recent FEC filings. Last week, Mr. Trump’s group began spending on behalf of the party’s Senate nominee in Texas, Ken Paxton, who has been hammered by negative ads from his Democratic opponent. If the president does unleash the full power of his spending committee over the next 60 days, it may end up being Republicans’ saving grace.

Welcome to Washington: The Cash Cavalry Arrives for the GOP

Welcome to Washington: The Cash Cavalry Arrives for the GOP

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