Democrats and Republicans Brace for Critical Primaries in Maine, South Carolina

On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans will go to the polls to choose nominees for offices in two critical states — Maine and South Carolina. The results will expose a great deal about President Trump’s influence, the strength of the “America First” and progressive wings of the respective parties, and the importance of electability. Maine and South Carolina could not be more different. Besides both lying on the East Coast of the United States, their politics, partisan nature, and the importance of outside influence diverge greatly. In Maine, the most-watched race is, unsurprisingly, the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race. Though Marine and oyster farmer Graham Platner is now the presumptive nominee, the question will be how many Maine Democrats offer a protest vote against him amid his myriad scandals. Mr. Platner quickly won the endorsements of Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, even when the preferred candidate of Senator Chuck Schumer — Governor Janet Mills — was still in the race. Ms. Mills suspended her campaign in April, saying she did not have the financial resources to compete against Mr. Platner, who has raised more than $16 million for the race, according to the most recent FEC filings. Based on current polling, Ms. Mills may receive double-digit support in the primary from Maine voters despite choosing to suspend her campaign long before voting began. If she can win a significant percentage of support, then it would be a serious sign of weakness for Mr. Platner headed into November. A poll from Tavern Research found that Mr. Platner now leads Senator Susan Collins by only two points in the general election — well within the margin of error. A flood of stories about Mr. Platner’s behavior — including reports on past abusive behavior toward ex-girlfriends and sending sexual messages to women who are not his wife — has seemingly turned a large chunk of Maine voters against him. The Tavern Research poll shows that 57 percent of Mainers now feel more negatively about Mr. Platner than before those stories, compared to 30 percent who are ambivalent and 13 percent who feel more positively about him. The margin showing how many voters feel more negatively about him is especially notable given Ms. Collins’ vulnerability, considering she is the only GOP senator seeking re-election in a state that Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. Down ballot, Maine Democrats also have a series of important choices to make. In the gubernatorial race, there are five leading Democrats facing off in the ranked-choice voting primary — former state senate president Troy Jackson, former state house of representatives speaker Hannah Pingree, secretary of state Shenna Bellows, former Maine CDC director Nirav Shah, and businessman Angus King III, who is the son of Senator Angus King, a former Maine governor. The winner of the Democratic primary is almost certain to face off against businessman Jonathan Bush, the cousin of President George W. Bush and nephew of President George H.W. Bush. In Maine’s second congressional district — a district President Trump won by nearly ten points, but is currently represented by a Democrat in the House — Republicans are trying to boost state auditor Matt Dunlap, an avowed progressive, with an outside spending campaign. He is facing off against state senator Joe Baldacci, a more moderate candidate backed by Democratic leadership in Washington. In South Carolina, Mr. Trump’s influence will be put to the test. Like in Iowa, where Mr. Trump issued a late endorsement for a Republican congressman who later lost to a political outsider in the GOP primary, the president’s endorsement may have come too late. Mr. Trump has endorsed lieutenant governor Pam Evette, who, according to polls, will not win an outright majority of the vote on Tuesday. If she fails to break 50 percent, she will be forced into a runoff election in two weeks.

Democrats and Republicans Brace for Critical Primaries in Maine, South Carolina

Democrats and Republicans Brace for Critical Primaries in Maine, South Carolina

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