Democrats Hold Major Enthusiasm Advantage Headed Into the Midterms, Polls Show

With only two weeks until the midterm elections, Democrats have one major advantage over their Republican opponents — enthusiasm. Polling shows Democratic voters are far more eager to turn out to cast their ballots than members of the GOP. Given President Trump’s low approval rating and the narrow margin for the current House Republican majority, nearly all political observers predict the House will flip to Democratic control next month. According to a Fox News projection, Democrats are favored in 219 of the 435 House districts, one more than is needed for a majority. Republicans are favored in 198 districts while 18 districts are rated as true toss-ups. The Senate appears to be a jump ball, however, with races in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, and Maine all within or nearly within the margin of error, according to polling aggregates. If Democrats really do have the enthusiasm advantage that polls show, it could help propel Democrats to a Senate majority of as many as 53 seats. According to one poll from CBS News on the Texas Senate race, 87 percent of Democrats of respondents say they will definitely vote next month, compared to only 76 percent of Republicans. Among independent poll respondents, 77 percent say they will definitely vote.“Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state’s overall Republican leanings, while Democrat James Talarico is boosted by voters’ economic concerns and higher perceptions of personal character to serve as senator,” writes CBS News’s director of elections and surveys, Anthony Salvanto. “Talarico’s standing is helped by more Democrats saying they’ll definitely vote.”Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm nationally, according to another poll from NBC News released on Sunday. According to that poll, Democrats now have a lead of nine points on the generic congressional ballot — a national poll of voters asked which party they want to see control Congress. Among those who say they will “definitely” vote, Democrats lead by 12 points. “There’s a motivation edge here for Democrats,” NBC News’s national political correspondent, Steve Kornacki, said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday. Mr. Kornacki said those who said they will “definitely” vote represented “about 80 percent” of those who responded. Among those who say they will “probably” vote, Republicans lead by 16 points — a sign of vacillating enthusiasm just weeks before ballots are cast. Among those said they will definitely not vote, Republicans lead that group by 22 points. While motivating the masses may be the biggest challenge the GOP faces, with $526 million in the bank and “superior” candidates, Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes the GOP can defy history, which traditionally favors the opposition party from the White House in midterm races. “I am excited,” Mr. Johnson said on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” noting he is traveling to 40 districts in 22 states this month. “I’m going to the swing districts. I’m going to the places that the pundits and the pollsters say we’re going to lose. They are wrong. We have incredible turnout. … Our voters just need to ignore all the noise and go vote; do your civic duty.”Whether the polls are correct or not, they are consistent. A third poll from ABC News released Saturday shows Democrats with an eight-point lead in the generic ballot and, again, a higher level of enthusiasm to go vote. That survey shows 72 percent of Democratic respondents to the poll are sure they will cast a ballot, compared to only 65 percent of Republicans who said the same. The enthusiasm is seen not just in recent poll results, but in actual Democratic turnout during this year’s primaries. In competitive states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Carolina, Iowa, and Kansas, more Democrats cast ballots in this year’s primaries than they did in the 2022 midterms, when Republicans took control of the House.More Democratic ballots than Republican ballots were also cast in primaries this year. In Texas, for example, where both Democrats and Republicans had competitive races for the nomination to the U.S. Senate seat, Democrats cast 2.3 million votes compared to 2.2 million Republican votes. The same is true for other states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Minnesota — three seats that Democrats will almost certainly have to hold if they want to win a Senate majority.

Democrats Hold Major Enthusiasm Advantage Headed Into the Midterms, Polls Show

Democrats Hold Major Enthusiasm Advantage Headed Into the Midterms, Polls Show

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