Democrats Leading in All Seven Swing Senate Races 48 Hours Before Election Day: Poll

With less than two days until polls close in the midterm elections, Democrats lead in all seven of the Senate races most likely to determine control of the chamber, according to a new New York Times-Siena University poll. In order to win a Senate majority, Democrats must flip a net of four seats, winning 51 of the chamber’s 100 desks. Because Vice President JD Vance would act as tiebreaker in a 50–50 Senate, the GOP would hold control if Democrats can only pick up a net of three Senate seats. According to the Times-Siena poll, Democrats are favored to overshoot that margin, however. In a poll of seven Senate contests released late Sunday, Democrats are favored to flip all of those seats, six of which are currently held by Republicans. If Democrats take all six of those GOP-held seats plus the North Carolina seat they are heavily favored to flip, then they would win a 54-seat Senate majority — the largest majority Democrats have won since 2008. The Democratic-held seat that Republicans have most aggressively targeted this year is Senator Gary Peters’ seat in Michigan, which Abdul El-Sayed is now hoping to keep in his party’s column. Dr. El-Sayed leads his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, by 11 points, according to the poll released on Sunday. The six Republican-held seats — in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa — are also favored to fall into Democrats’ hands. Only two of those six races, Alaska and Iowa, are within the poll’s margin of error. “In today’s polarized era, there’s no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side. The only plausible comparisons are the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, but the recent polls outpace even those,” the Times’ chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, writes in his analysis of Sunday’s polls. The Times–Siena poll is not the only outfit predicting a Democratic majority in the Senate. The SilverBulletin FLIPR model has Democrats up in seven races for Senate seats currently held by Republicans, marking it a model which predicts a 54-seat Democratic Senate majority. Other analysis firms — including VoteHub, DDHQ, and InsideElections — have Democrats winning anywhere between 50 and 52 Senate seats. If Democrats do take the upper chamber, those victories will come out of states that President Trump carried by double digits. In Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska — all of which Mr. Trump won by at least 11 points — Democrats are favored to flip their states’ Senate seats, according to the Times-Siena poll.

Democrats Leading in All Seven Swing Senate Races 48 Hours Before Election Day: Poll

Democrats Leading in All Seven Swing Senate Races 48 Hours Before Election Day: Poll

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