Democrats Widen Lead in Midterm Polling as GOP Candidates Distance Themselves From Trump

Democrats have opened up a significant lead over Republicans ahead of November’s congressional elections, according to a new poll released Wednesday.The national survey, conducted by the Marquette University Law School from Sept. 2 to 9, found Democrats leading Republicans 54 percent to 41 percent among likely voters — up from a 51 percent to 45 percent advantage in July. The poll surveyed 1,023 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.Other surveys show a similar trend. RealClearPolling‘s generic congressional ballot average has Democrats ahead nationally, 50.2 percent to 41.6 percent. A recent YouGov poll found a tighter race, with 44 percent backing the Democratic candidate, 39 percent favoring the Republican, and 17 percent undecided or leaning elsewhere.RealClearPolitics also says Democrats are on pace to pick up five seats in the Senate, which would give them control of the chamber by a 52-48 margin.The results follow a familiar pattern in American politics: the president’s party has historically lost ground in midterm elections, a dynamic Democrats are hoping to capitalize on this cycle.Betting markets are also leaning toward a Democratic wave. Polymarket odds give Democrats a 59 percent chance of sweeping both the House and Senate, with 88 percent favoring a Democratic House win and 59 percent favoring a Democratic Senate win. Kalshi‘s markets show similar odds, with a 54 percent chance of a Democratic sweep.Cost pressures are dominating voters’ minds heading into November. The Marquette poll found 37 percent of respondents cited inflation and the cost of living as the most important issue facing the country, far outpacing the economy broadly (16 percent), the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States (10 percent), Medicare and Social Security (9 percent), and health care (7 percent).With grocery and gas prices weighing heavily on households, President Trump has pitched a series of proposals aimed at easing costs, most notably a pledge to send $5,000 “dividend” checks to Americans if Republicans retain control of Congress. The plan has drawn skepticism even from within his own party. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky questioned the premise outright: “You give a dividend if you have money in profit. There is no profit. There’s a $2 trillion loss occurring each year. I don’t know how you give money that you don’t have.”Mr. Trump has urged Republican candidates to run as though he himself is on the ballot, betting that his brand can energize the GOP base. But a Washington Post analysis of more than a million social media posts found most Republican candidates are doing the opposite — sticking to their own messaging and largely avoiding mentions of Mr. Trump as they navigate a landscape shaped by high prices, an ongoing war in Iran, and the president’s own stagnant approval ratings.Mentions of Mr. Trump or the MAGA movement among Republican politicians have dropped by nearly half since the start of the year, the analysis found. Some candidates have scrubbed his name from their campaign websites entirely, and many in competitive races skipped the party’s midterm convention altogether — a sign that, for now, Republicans are running from Mr. Trump rather than with him.

Democrats Widen Lead in Midterm Polling as GOP Candidates Distance Themselves From Trump

Democrats Widen Lead in Midterm Polling as GOP Candidates Distance Themselves From Trump

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