Scramble Begins to Succeed Annan at United Nations

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

UNITED NATIONS -The early scramble to see who will fill the shoes of Kofi Annan has begun, with states and regions vying to bring one of their own into the position of secretary-general of the United Nations and all the bully pulpit privileges that come with it.

The latest Iranian attempt, floating the candidacy of President Khatami for the position, was seen, at Turtle Bay, as a diversion. But it also stirred the pot in the hallways, and as world leaders gathered here for a week of meetings, some wonder whether it is too early to ask: Who will be Mr. Annan’s successor?

More than anything, the early maneuvering for the position, which will become vacant at the end of 2006, underlines the chaotic method of selecting someone for the high-powered position. To be successful at this stage of the race, one has to feed the rumor mill.

Will it be the Thai foreign minister? A Sri Lankan? A dashing Indian-born U.N. figure with ties to Hollywood and the intellectual salons of the Upper West Side? How about a Polish president who is popular in Washington? Or maybe Mr. Annan again, at least for half a term? And then again, why not Iran’s Mr. Khatami?

“We had a Nazi, why not a representative of a terrorist state?” one acid tongued American diplomat told The New York Sun, referring to Austria’s Kurt Waldheim, who was secretary-general between 1972 and 1981.

It is believed by many that this is Asia’s turn, but a push by some members of New Europe could bring one of their own to the fore. After Mr. Annan’s remark last week accusing the Bush administration of violating international law in its actions in Iraq, some in Washington, which is the real power broker in the U.N. race, would love to see a friendlier face in the post.

At the U.N., where Mr. Annan is held in high regard, many believe that, as one official put it, “he raised the bar.” And so they assume his replacement has to be someone of stature – no more junior than a foreign minister. Others assume that Mr. Annan has set another trend: a secretary-general from the ranks of the institution itself. One such candidate whose name is whispered around the halls of the world body is the undersecretary-general for public information, Shashi Tharoor, an Indian-born, British-educated writer with a Hollywood flair who some swear is the real source for his own name’s being floated.

With what sounded like a well-honed non-denial of his candidacy, Mr. Tharoor told the Sun: “The secretary-general is barely halfway through his second term. We all have a great deal of work to do to fulfill what remains to be accomplished in this term, and we’re all concentrating on that. I am certainly focused on that.”

Despite his meteoric rise within the organization, however, Mr. Tharoor is widely viewed as being not yet ready for prime time. The reason he may even be under consideration is that he fits one job requirement, at least according to common wisdom here: He comes from an Asian country.

As with every powerful post in this organization, a candidacy for secretary-general must first be jelled in the ranks of a regional group. It then brings the name to the Security Council, which, after a series of straw polls, settles on one candidate – who finally must win approval from the entire 191-member General Assembly. In the last three four-year terms, the secretary-general was African. Before that he was South American. Now, Asian leaders claim, the secretary-general must come from the largest continent.

The Iranian News Agency, IRNA, which put out the report that Tehran wants Mr. Khatami to be the next secretary- general, explained that the consideration came after the Thai foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, presented his credentials as the Asian candidate.

The 46-year-old Mr. Sathirathai, a powerful former finance minister, is certainly the leading horse in the race now. But at the U.N., many consider the early race to be totally inconsequential.

One U.N. official compared the process to the choice of pope at the Vatican. “Any cardinal who before the conclave says he can be pope you can write off,” that official said.

Indeed, while Asia contends that its candidate must become the next secretary-general, some groups disagree. At an inter-regional meeting recently, some members of New Europe contended that while the Burmese U Thant’s term ended as long ago as 1971, one region has never had a secretary general: Eastern Europe, which once was the Soviet bloc.

“President Kwasniewski of Poland is an excellent candidate,” the Bulgarian ambassador, Stefan Tafrov, told the Sun.

A North American, for that matter, has never held the post. At the U.N., where power-sharing is a virtue, the tradition is that no secretary general comes from a powerful nation. Canada, however, has a strong U.N. presence, including Mr. Annan’s deputy, Louise Frechette, and while she is not considered a candidate, some believe Canada will soon field one.

The selection process for the job is one reason why the Iranian idea was met with so much skepticism. Besides being a candidate of a regional group, the ambassador of the Philippines, Lauro Baja, said, one must “cross the hurdle” of the Security Council, and especially its five veto-yielding members, known here as the P-5.

“I don’t think Iran can pass some in the P-5,” said Mr. Baja, who is one of the current Asians in the council. He was referring to America, which recently has tightened diplomatic pressure on Iran.

That could have been another reason why Iran put the feeler out. At the end of a week when the International Atomic Energy Agency made the mullah regime a candidate for future sanctions, some in Tehran felt supplying the secretary-general might transform Iran into world darlings.

The idea that Mr. Khatami would become the next secretary-general was dismissed quickly by those who know the organization, with a one-word summary offered by the Irish ambassador, Richard Ryan: “Humorous.”

But for some Arabs and Muslim countries, this was a moment to show solidarity with a beleaguered ally.

“Why not?” said the secretary general of the Arab League, Amre Moussa. When reminded by the Sun that Iran is at the center of a nuclear controversy, he went to an old fallback. “There are problems also with Israel and the nuclear program, so Iran is not alone in that,” Mr. Moussa said.


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