GOP Senate on the Ropes as Democrats Surge in Four Key States, Poll Finds

Democrats now have the edge in four key Senate races headed into midterm election day, according to a new poll. If those margins hold, Republicans will have an especially difficult time keeping their majority come January. The Senate map has dramatically expanded in just the last nine months, with the Iran war fueling intense voter dissatisfaction with President Trump and his party. In the Midwest especially, where farmers and truckers are bearing the brunt of high gas and diesel prices, Democrats are doing far better than they would have expected earlier this year. According to a new group of surveys from CNN and SSRS, Democrats are favored to hold on to the U.S. Senate seat in Michigan which is up for grabs this year, and are well positioned to take the contested Senate seats in Texas, Maine, and Kansas, as well. If those latter three seats flip and Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race — as they are widely expected to — then it is all but guaranteed that Democrats will take control of the chamber next year. “Taken together, these four states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to make a play for Senate control,” CNN analysts write of the polling results. “They exemplify the extraordinary range of the playing field in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power, and of the ways in which individual candidates can overcome — or succumb to — the forces of political habit.”The largest Democratic leads in the CNN–SSRS polls are for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and state representatives James Talarico in Texas, who lead their GOP opponents by seven and six points, respectively — outside of the margin of error. In Michigan, Dr. El-Sayed appears to be benefiting from unifying his own party to a greater degree than the GOP candidate, Mike Rogers. The poll found Dr. El-Sayed expanding his lead from five to seven points since their last poll, with 95 percent of Democrats backing him compared to 91 percent of Republicans who back Mr. Rogers. Dr. El-Sayed leads Mr. Rogers among independents by 19 points, 51 percent to 32 percent.Dr. El-Sayed, however, is running behind the Democratic candidate for Michigan governor, Jocelyn Benson, who is leading her Republican opponent by 12 points. Ms. Benson’s larger lead is thanks, in part, to a more sizable 28-point lead among independents. In Maine — the lone state won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 which still has a GOP senator — Democrats have a far narrower lead of only four points. Senator Susan Collins, the moderate lawmaker who has served in the Senate for nearly 30 years, is benefiting from the perception that she is a GOP lawmaker independent from the White House, given she is winning one-in-five of Maine voters who disapprove of how Mr. Trump is handling his job.In Kansas, too, Democrats have a lead, though it is within the poll’s margin of error. The Democratic candidate, The Reverend Adam Hamilton, has garnered praise for running an energized campaign in the heartland focused on the cost of living and bringing Kansas together — a strategy which has pushed the Kansas Senate race into the “toss up” category for many forecasters. Reverend Hamilton leads by four points in the CNN–SSRS poll.

GOP Senate on the Ropes as Democrats Surge in Four Key States, Poll Finds

GOP Senate on the Ropes as Democrats Surge in Four Key States, Poll Finds

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