Iran’s Shadow Over Baghdad: Inside Tehran’s Grip on Iraq as the Regime Crumbles

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in coordinated United States-Israeli strikes has thrust Iran-backed Iraqi militias into their most critical test yet — caught between a collapsing patron and the pressure to prove their loyalty through violence.Within hours of Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq fulfilled their threats, launching 16 drone attacks against American bases while simultaneously absorbing retaliatory strikes that killed at least six militia fighters, confirming Iraq’s transformation into a frontline battleground.Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death on March 1, ending 36 years of iron rule. The joint operation, codenamed Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States, eliminated dozens of senior officials, including the chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, the defence minister, and top Revolutionary Guard commanders, decapitating Tehran’s military leadership in a single coordinated assault.For Iraq’s Iranian-backed militias, however, the question is no longer whether to defend their patron, but whether that patron will survive to continue paying them.Blood Debts Come DueThe Iran-backed, Iraq-based militias wasted no time honoring their commitments. Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada announced they were joining the fighting in response to attacks on Iran. These are the same groups that just weeks ago crossed into Iran to help crush protesters — militiamen paid $600 each to kill Iranian civilians.On February 28, American or Israeli forces hit Kataib Hezbollah’s headquarters in Jurf al-Sakhar southwest of Baghdad, killing at least two militia fighters and wounding five. Another Iran-loyal militia, Asaib Ahl al Haq, announced four members killed on March 1 in what they claimed was a joint United States-Israeli airstrike.Saraya Awliya al Dam, a front group linked to Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, known for targeting American forces in Kurdistan, claimed a drone swarm attack on American bases in Erbil on March 1, boasting of their “religious duty” in retaliation for Khamenei’s assassination. Kurdish air defenses intercepted most attacks, preventing casualties.Yet the scope of American and Israeli retaliation has been devastating. Three American service members were killed in Kuwait — the first American casualties of Operation Epic Fury — while Iranian strikes have killed at least 201 people in Iran and wounded 747, with Israel continuing fresh waves of attacks deep in Tehran.The Protest Massacre That Sealed Their FateThe deployment of Iraqi militias to suppress Iranian protests earlier this year exposed the depth of Tehran’s control over Iraq’s security apparatus. Approximately 800 fighters initially crossed into Iran under the guise of religious pilgrimages, with that number eventually swelling to nearly 5,000 by mid-January.The protests these militias helped crush resulted in what human rights groups are calling one of Iran’s worst massacres in modern history. Human Rights Activists in Iran documented 7,007 confirmed deaths during the first 50 days of protests, with 11,744 additional cases still under review.Eyewitnesses reported security forces in Kurdish regions who did not speak Persian, while in Karaj, witnesses said forces spoke Arabic and took selfies with the bodies of slain protesters.“Sending hundreds of Iraqi militiamen to Iran underlines seamless integration,” managing director of Nestpoint Associates, John Thomas, tells the Sun. “Iran’s Quds Force treats them as an extension of its own repression machine, crossing borders under pilgrimage pretexts to prop up the teetering regime.”In other words, Tehran’s control over Iraqi militias has become so complete that it can deploy them as foreign mercenaries to massacre Iranian citizens protesting the regime — a level of penetration that effectively makes Iraq’s armed groups indistinguishable from Iran’s own security apparatus.The Architecture of ControlIran’s dominance over Iraq operates through a sophisticated network that has evolved from opportunistic militia support into systematic state capture. At its apex sits the Quds Force, the external operations wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State, serve as the primary vehicle for Iranian influence. Officially integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus in 2016, the PMF encompasses more than 60 militias.The most powerful answer directly to Tehran rather than Baghdad, including Kataib Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organisation by Washington, Asaib Ahl al Haq, and the Badr Organisation, whose leader, Hadi al Amiri, has held ministerial positions while maintaining ties to Iranian intelligence.Iran’s approach relies on ideological indoctrination, financial support, and promises of political power. Estimates suggest Iran spends hundreds of millions annually through direct payments, reconstruction contracts, and control over border crossings.For American interests, this Iranian entrenchment threatens the significant investment made in Iraq since 2003. Iran-backed militias killed 603 American service members between 2003 and 2011, 17 percent of all American deaths during that period, through explosively formed penetrators and other weapons supplied to Shia militias.The United States withdrew from most Iraqi bases in 2025 but maintains fewer than 2,000 troops in Iraq, primarily in Kurdistan, officially advising Iraqi forces in counterterrorism operations. Iran-backed militias launched more than 170 attacks on American facilities in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan between October 2023 and February 2024.“These militias pose prime threats through drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases, political sabotage in Baghdad to expel American forces, and proxy wars disrupting oil flows that spike prices for American families,” Mr. Thomas says. “Their deployment to crush Iranian protests shows deepening integration, risking spillover chaos that endangers our troops and allies.”Earlier this year, Iraq announced the withdrawal of American forces from Al Asad Air Base in Anbar province. United States troops are still in Kurdistan and maintain a presence in Baghdad; however, the Baghdad government has made clear the coalition mission has concluded on federal territory, representing a partial victory for Tehran’s campaign of attrition.The Regime’s Moment of TruthIran has announced 40 days of mourning following Khamenei’s death, yet the regime’s response has been divided between fury and fear. Many Iranian civilians took to the streets to celebrate Khamenei’s death, with videos circulating online showing jubilant crowds in Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, and other cities. In Dehloran, people were filmed cheering as a statue was toppled.Iran responded to the strikes by launching hundreds of drones and missiles at US bases, Israel, and Gulf countries. Iranian missiles targeted 27 bases in the Middle East where US troops are deployed. The attacks damaged Dubai International Airport, struck hotels housing American personnel, and forced the closure of airspace across multiple countries.The deployment of Iraqi militiamen to suppress Iranian protests revealed how dependent these groups remain on Tehran — yet also their independent capabilities. While regime collapse could sever Tehran’s financial support, the militias have developed revenue streams through oil smuggling, political influence, and extortion.“Iraqi militia chiefs have built semi-autonomous empires through oil smuggling, political clout, and local extortion rackets, giving them some staying power without Iran’s full backing,” Mr. Thomas explains. “But without Tehran’s weapons, training, and billions in funding, they’d shrink to regional gangs and would be vulnerable to Iraqi government crackdowns or U.S. sanctions.”Some Iraqi militias, however, are choosing to protect their own interests by staying out of attacks on United States forces. Politically-linked groups have expressed rhetorical solidarity with Iran.Yet the strategic calculus offers Washington little comfort.“Washington can ramp up sanctions by going after militia finances, oil smuggling, and corrupt Baghdad enablers,” Mr. Thomas says. “At the same time, arm Iraqi forces to reclaim sovereignty without U.S. boots on the ground.”Those options narrowed considerably over the weekend.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed Iraq’s foreign minister that Iran would target United States bases in the region “out of self-defense”. In Iraq, government forces over the weekend blocked entrances to Baghdad’s Green Zone to protect embassies, deploying riot police against militia members trying to breach the barricades.Iraq’s future depends not on distant events in Iran but on the willingness of Iraqis themselves to reclaim sovereignty from the armed groups that have held their country hostage. Yet as explosions continue echoing across Baghdad, Erbil, Tehran, and capitals throughout the region, that future remains more distant than ever, even as the regime that built this network of control faces its greatest crisis since 1979.After two decades and $2 trillion spent building a democratic Iraq, the question isn’t whether Baghdad can escape Tehran’s shadow — it’s whether the regime’s collapse will free Iraq or plunge it deeper into chaos.

Iran’s Shadow Over Baghdad: Inside Tehran’s Grip on Iraq as the Regime Crumbles

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