Most Accurate 2024 Pollsters Give Democrats 15-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

The most accurate polling firm of the 2024 election, AtlasIntel, now has Democrats with a nearly 15-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Even though Republicans have picked up a significant number of House seats through redistricting alone, such a margin of victory would give Democrats a sizable majority in the chamber next year. AtlasIntel was often derided by left-leaning commentators during the last presidential election given the firm’s bullish sentiments for President Trump. In the end, the poll ended up being the most accurate among a crowded field of gold-standard pollsters. In its last poll before the 2024 election, AtlasIntel had Mr. Trump winning the popular vote by 1.2 percentage points. He ended up beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote by 1.5 points — the first popular vote victory by a non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate in nearly 40 years. “AtlasIntel provided the most precise estimates for the 2024 US Presidential Election, both at the national level and within key battleground states that decided the Electoral College. This achievement further solidifies AtlasIntel’s reputation for precision in the US polling industry,” the firm said after the election. Now, AtlasIntel has the largest popular vote lead for congressional Democrats in its most recent poll. According to the survey results released Tuesday, Democrats lead Republicans by nearly 15 points in the generic ballot — 40.1 percent to 54.6 percent. Among independent voters, Democrats lead by a stunning 39 points, 25 percent to 64 percent. The redistricting war kicked off by the president last year seemed to have come to a draw just two weeks ago as California and Virginia Democrats were on track to pick up nine seats for their party. A decision by the Virginia Supreme court to strike down the state’s gerrymander as well as a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court to declare race-based redistricting unconstitutional quickly put Republicans decisively in the lead. Depending on how aggressive Republicans get in their redistricting efforts in southern states, the GOP may end up netting anywhere from 15 to 20 seats in the race for the House before a single ballot has been cast. Despite that cushion, the party is still at a significant disadvantage headed into the midterms, mostly as a result of Mr. Trump’s approval rating. The AtlasIntel poll shows Mr. Trump 20 points underwater nationally, 60 percent to 40 percent. On the issues most important to voters, the president’s policy record is viewed poorly across the board. He has 22-point net disapproval rating on the economy and jobs, he is 28 points underwater on the issue of healthcare, and he has a 20-point net negative approval rating on foreign policy.

Most Accurate 2024 Pollsters Give Democrats 15-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

Most Accurate 2024 Pollsters Give Democrats 15-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

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