Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Presents the Global Security Challenge for Our Time

Russia is engaged in hybrid warfare against the West. It is not preparing for hybrid warfare. It is already engaged in it.This reality of constant, pervasive, and widespread Russian aggression against the West was brought home to me by Daniel Silva’s brilliant new novel “Ransom.” Mr. Silva captures the wide range of Russian aggressive, criminal, and at times violent behavior. This behavior spans finance, psychological warfare, suborning people into being Russian assets, the use of drones, and draining European will and energy.While Mr. Silva was writing this novel, the day-to-day news more than validated his concern about the Russian use of what they call hybrid warfare.The London Telegraph reports that Russia is building “secret drone bases in striking distance of NATO.” According to the paper, “Satellite imagery and leaked documents reveal a network of secret launch bases capable of sending Moscow’s newest long-range attack drones deep inside NATO…the Kremlin is reshaping the battlefield right under Europe’s nose.”Just as I was writing this column, there was a report that NATO fighters shot down a drone over Latvia. This drone was apparently tied into electromagnetic warfare. Finland has restricted airspace over the Gulf of Finland to limit Russian drone flights.Meanwhile, nearly 1,200 miles south of Latvia, a Spanish F-18 flying as part of a NATO patrol in Romania shot down a drone that was almost certainly Russian. It was the fourth drone shot down over Romania this year.There have been a remarkable number of drone incidents over European airports — including airports which have been supplying Ukraine with weapons and equipment. Not all these incidents have been proven to be Russian. To be sure, a major problem in tracking Russian aggression is the amount of energy Vladimir Putin’s regime puts into denial and dishonesty. The regime prefers lying even when the truth is harmless.The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, correctly called this process “hybrid warfare.”However, identifying the Russian approach doesn’t solve the problem. It defines the problems. If the Russian doctrine is for hybrid warfare to be waged constantly but kept short of traditional military-on-military, nation state warfare, then what is the right Western response?There is simply no Western doctrine for a world of nonpeace and nonwar in which our opponents routinely engage in violent and aggressive actions but remain below the threshold of all-out confrontation.Should we put a drone over a Russian airfield every time the Russians put a drone over a western airfield? Should we be aggressively working to hack into and destroy Russian assets every time there is a hack into Western assets? Should we be waging an active media campaign inside Russia encouraging young men to flee the country to worsen the country’s demographic and political crises?We waged a large, complex campaign against the Soviet Union. In countries such as Poland, we were deeply engaged in undermining the dictatorship and strengthening and subsidizing the Polish national elements that wanted to force the Soviets out of power.With Russia, Communist China, and Iran (and to a lesser extent North Korea) we are embroiled in an ongoing hybrid war that is deadly and dangerous. The classic American model includes a sharp distinction between war and peace. It is difficult for it to imagine a multi-decade shadow struggle that is partially violent, partially hostile, and partially diplomatic. We have no solution for this state: Hypocritically pretending to be friends while violence and hostility plays out at the margins.Congress would be wise to hold a series of hearings on hybrid warfare, including expert-led seminars on its origins and development (going back to Sun Tzu’s “the Art of War” around 500 years before the common era). A lot of rethinking must go into how a free society operates in a grey world of nonwar/nonpeace and a continuous struggle with aggressive dictatorships.Similarly, the Executive Branch should have a thorough rethinking of doctrine — starting with the National Security Council, the Department of War, and the Department of State but expanding to include the Treasury (one of the leading centers of the grey struggle between good and evil around the planet) and all elements of national power.We must realize that hybrid war is still war. It must be dealt with as such. This is the hard challenge of our time.

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Presents the Global Security Challenge for Our Time

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Presents the Global Security Challenge for Our Time

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