Illinois Needs Backcourt To Step Up

Apparently, the pollsters knew what they were doing. After two weeks of madness, the NCAA Tournament has correctly identified the two best teams in the country. Ranked no. 1 and no. 2, respectively, after the regular season, Illinois and North Carolina will play for the NCAA championship tonight in what promises to be a classic.Before the tournament began, this neutral observer penciled the Illini and Tar Heels into the title game, with North Carolina winning the championship. I’ll stick by that pick. Here’s why North Carolina will give Roy Williams, long regarded as one of the top coaches in the college game, his first national championship after five Final Four appearances.FRONTCOURTThis is where the game could well be decided. The only hint of a weakness during Illinois’s near-perfect season has been interior defense. In the Chicago Regional Final, Arizona’s Channing Frye burned the Illini for 24 points and 12 rebounds, and would have been the star of that game had Illinois not pulled off its remarkable comeback victory.North Carolina’s Sean May, a hulking 6-foot-9, 266 pounder, is the tournament’s leading scorer and rebounder. He’ll present real problems for the Illini’s James Augustine, who is an inch taller but gives up 30 pounds. May will use that to his advantage, backing Augustine into the paint and either spinning around him or lofting jump hooks over him.North Carolina also holds the advantage at the other frontcourt position, if Jawad Williams’s performance against Louisville in Saturday’s semifinal game is any indication. Williams, a 6-foot-9 senior and one of the Tar Heels’ most gifted athletes, had battled assorted injuries since the ACC Tournament, and accounted for just 18 NCAA tournament points before Saturday.With his health apparently restored, Williams burned the Cardinals for 20, scoring inside and out. Illinois’s Roger Powell, listed at 6-foot-6 (though CBS analyst Billy Packer pointed out on Saturday that Powell stood no taller than Louisville’s 6-foot-4 Larry O’Bannon), will be hard-pressed to contain a healthy Williams.Advantage: North CarolinaBACKCOURTIllinois has the best backcourt trio in the country. Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Deron Williams were all selected first-team All-Big Ten and earned some sort of All-America honors.North Carolina will counter with Raymond Felton, Jackie Manuel, and Rashad McCants, certainly a formidable trio but no match for the Illini guards.The 6-foot-5 Manuel is a lock-down defender, perhaps the Tar Heels’ best, but he’s going to have a hard time defending Williams or Head. Williams might be the nation’s steadiest point guard, and he’s a great scorer when he has to be. In the comeback against Arizona, Williams poured in 22 points and handed out 10 assists. Against Michigan State in Saturday’s semifinals, he scored the first basket of the game and the last, but only a free throw in between. His major contributions were nine assists and five rebounds. Whomever guards Williams will have to disrupt his control of the Illini offense.Felton, one of the country’s finest point guards, is wrapping up his best season in Chapel Hill, but he’s not as steady as Williams and at times has been turnover prone. Chances are good he’ll guard Brown, and good luck to him. Brown is a perpetual-motion machine who excels in transition, blows by defenders off the dribble, and shoots the 3-pointer with startling consistency. What does Felton try to take away? Deciding that will be his biggest challenge.Likewise, Manuel will have to play Head’s perimeter game honestly, but also be wary of the drive. Head, like Williams, has the size and strength to attack the basket. But he’s also a game breaking 3-point shooter, as Louisville found out on Saturday.Advantage: IllinoisBENCHIllinois doesn’t dip into its bench much, though 6-foot-10 senior Jack Ingram has become increasingly valuable late in the season. Nick Smith, a 7-foot-2 senior, has also played effectively in short stints. Rich McBride is the Illini’s most effective backcourt reserve, but he hasn’t shot the ball as well (31% from 3-point range) as the Illinois coaches had hoped.Contrast that group of reserves with the North Carolina subs. Illinois doesn’t have anyone who compares with freshman Marvin Williams, a 6-foot-9 scoring machine who does damage inside, from 3-point range, and from the free-throw line.Melvin Scott, a 6-foot-2 senior, brings more experience than McBride and is versatile enough to give Felton a breather at the point. And David Noel, a 6-foot-6 senior, is a physical rebounder who contributes for far longer stretches than either Ingram or Smith.Advantage: North CarolinaCOACHINGIn just his second season, Illinois coach Bruce Weber has led his team to within a to win of the first national championship in the school’s 100-year basketball history. If the Illini do win, they will set an NCAA record for victories in a season with 38. Before coming to Illinois, Weber ran one of the most competitive mid-major programs at Southern Illinois. And before that, he served an 18-year apprenticeship under Purdue coach Gene Keady.Roy Williams comes in with even more experience. This is his fifth Final Four (the first four trips were with Kansas). Williams’s motion offense is perhaps the game’s most efficient, and his teams always rank among the nation’s leaders in scoring and field-goal percentage.Advantage: North CarolinaINTANGIBLESThe Illini are still drawing inspiration from their remarkable regular season, during which they maintained the no. 1 ranking from December through March, taking on all comers and losing just once (on a last-second 3-pointer at Ohio State in the regular season finale). The confidence gained in beating all but the Buckeyes has lifted Illinois in this tournament, as did the death of Weber’s mother last month.North Carolina’s players badly want to give Williams that first championship and prove what many experts have said all season, that their first six players are as talented as any in the country.Advantage: IllinoisPREDICTIONIf North Carolina’s defense holds up better than it did in allowing a low scoring Wisconsin squad to rack up 82 points in the Syracuse Regional Final, the Tar Heels will deny Illinois a happy ending to a great season and win Roy Williams his first national championship.Mr. Dortch is the editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook.

Illinois Needs Backcourt To Step Up

Illinois Needs Backcourt To Step Up

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