Much Value Can Be Found in Free Agent Market

While one would think that days before spring training we would be looking at a free agent market filled with nothing but base and unworthy dregs, this year’s is nothing of the sort. Famous names such as Mike Piazza, ancient men such as David Wells, useful role players, and even a true superstar are still on the market. The reasons are varied, but all of these players could do real damage this year, and none would cost anything near their potential value. The statistics are projected by a “naive” system called Marcel, which weights an average of the player’s last three years, regresses it toward or away from the league average, and includes a slight adjustment for age. It isn’t the best system, but it’s surprisingly accurate, and quite transparent as it involves no hidden assumptions. Sabermetrician Tom Tango makes these available every year, and fangraphs.com posts them online; they’re well worth a look.