Vance May Pass on 2028 Presidential Bid After Midterm Loss

Vice President Vance offered four reasons for the major losses that beset Republicans in the midterm elections, but he may not be the presidential candidate to right the ship after the party badly damaged its reputation. According to a Wall Street Journal report Sunday, Mr. Vance has been told by several allies that his path to a Republican presidential victory — particularly as a Trump administration insider — could be a long shot.The Republicans’ defeat last week showed a shift in Hispanic voters toward the Democrats after a thaw in 2024 that gave President Trump 42 percent of the Hispanic vote — a record for a Republican. Lack of enthusiasm among young voters who backed the Trump-Vance ticket — in part thanks to the vigor of a then 40-year-old Mr. Vance — also evaporated. Voters who supported Republicans in 2024 on the promise that there would be “no new wars” could also leave Mr. Vance without an important constituency. Mr. Vance, an Iraq War veteran, argued that the war with Iran was the main driver of the midterm defeat as high energy costs drove once-reliable Midwestern states such as Iowa and Kansas to flip blue. “The reason we lost is the war,” Mr. Vance wrote in a lengthy post-mortem following the election. He argued that Republicans need to address four key issues to bring pivotal voters back into the fold — end the Iran war, take seriously voters’ concerns about the cost of living, “put American First,” and “change” the American–Israeli relationship. According to the Journal, Mr. Vance long ago lobbied the president not to enter into a war and in January had recruited pollster Mark Mitchell, who at the time was the polling chief for Rasmussen Reports, to query voters about a regime-change war with Iran. The results found an even split in support, with strong limiting conditions around such a gambit, including gaining support from Congress. Mr. Trump moved forward anyway. Mr. Vance wrote that before the election, he had spoken to “one of the smartest people” in politics about turnout and potential warning signs for Republicans. That pollster — whom Mr. Vance did not name — predicted a 13-point national popular vote win for Democrats which, as of Sunday, appears to have been an accurate forecast. Mr. Mitchell, who predicted a 13-point spread favoring Democrats in the midterm, declined to comment on the record for this story.After the Republicans’ midterm losses on Tuesday, it could take the GOP several cycles before the party could regain total control of Congress. The likelihood of keeping the presidency is also questionable, according to an August Emerson College poll. One path to Republican success may be distance from the current administration. According to the Journal report, at least one major New York fundraiser is urging donors to get behind Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited and leaving office early next year. Mr. DeSantis unsuccessfully challenged Mr. Trump during the last presidential primary. While they have been publicly cordial since the primary was decided, Mr. DeSantis, who has said he may run for president again, is not an insider. Several other Republicans have positioned themselves for 2028 runs. Senator Ted Cruz has kept the door open, saying it is “no secret” he wants to be president. The former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who was the runner-up for the 2024 nomination against Mr. Trump, could be a future candidate. In recent days, she has traveled the news talk circuit to describe what went wrong for Republicans and how to rebuild after their historic losses. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been widely regarded as the stablest of members within the Trump administration, is also viewed as a contender. He declined to comment on the possibility of a 2028 run during an interview with the New York Times last week, but is seen as an attractive candidate by the pro-Israel crowd..During a town hall event in Michigan last month, Mr. Vance said he would have to consider family before making up his mind on a 2028 run. He and his wife, Second Lady Usha Vance, recently welcomed their fourth child, and the vice president noted that his wife never “loved” politics. If Mr. Vance does pass on a 2028 White House run, he would become only the fourth sitting vice president in the last century to forgo a run for the presidency after his running mate exited the Oval Office. Charles Dawes in 1928, Dick Cheney in 2008, and Joe Biden are the only vice presidents to fail to seek the presidential nomination at the end of administrations in which they had served as vice president. Mr. Biden did eventually run and win a term. Mr. Vance could end up doing the same.

Vance May Pass on 2028 Presidential Bid After Midterm Loss

Vance May Pass on 2028 Presidential Bid After Midterm Loss

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