Welcome to Washington: Democrats’ New Senate Majority Could Prove Difficult To Dislodge

It looks as if the new wave of Democratic senators elected on Tuesday could be around for a while. When Republicans picked up nine Senate seats in the 2014 midterms, the result was heralded as a victory that could define a generation. Mitt Romney had just lost the presidency, yet suddenly, the GOP was competitive in states that Democrats had carried just a few years prior. That Republican class is largely gone, though, and a new generation of Democrats is here.Welcome to Washington, where the lawmakers-elect have arrived on Capitol Hill for their orientation sessions. Coming out of Tuesday, America is looking at the largest Democratic wave in terms of the national popular vote since Watergate and the largest House and Senate majorities since the beginning of the Obama administration. There is no sugarcoating what happened to Republicans this past week. Speaker Mike Johnson swiftly announced early Wednesday his departure as the GOP leader in the House. When The New York Sun reached out to a usually loquacious lawmaker to confirm that Mr. Johnson would be leaving, the lawmaker responded curtly, simply to say that Mr. Johnson was out. As of Monday, Democrats were slated to win as many as 259 House seats, marking the largest Democratic majority since 1991. In our bitter, partisan era, however, Republicans may have a chance to pick up a number of those seats — possibly dozens of them — come 2028. That would depend on the mood of the presidential election, even if retaking the majority is a less likely possibility.The Senate front is far more dire for Republicans, however. Because of the lower chamber’s two-year terms, the unending gerrymandering wars, and the near-constant shift in the national mood, Republicans will — more likely than not — net a few seats out of the next election in the House. The same is not true of the Senate. As of Monday, Democrats have won at least 54 Senate seats. There are two races — in Mississippi and Alaska — that remain uncalled, but still leaning toward the Democrats. In Mississippi as counting drags on, Democratic prosecutor Scott Colom leads Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican, by a few thousand votes. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate in Alaska, is also leading. If Alaska and Mississippi do end up in the Democratic column, then America may not see a Republican-controlled Senate again for another six years. Look ahead to the 2028 Senate map. In Republicans’ ideal world, they would hold all of their swing seats and maybe pick off a few vulnerable Democrats. That scenario is unlikely, however, given the trajectory of President Trump’s approval rating. The best case for Republicans would be that they hold seats in North Carolina and Wisconsin while picking up swing seats in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio. Even in that dream scenario — assuming Democrats do end up with 56 seats — then the majority would not flip in 2028. Rather, Republicans would end up with just 48 Senate seats. Even the idea that Republicans can hold North Carolina and Wisconsin should not be a given. Senator Ted Budd of the Tar Heel State won his race in 2022 by only just more than three points. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has defied political gravity in all three of his campaigns, has intimated that he will retire rather than run in two years for a fourth term. Congressman Brian Steil of the First District, who was angling to run for the Senate should Mr. Johnson retire, on Tuesday lost his re-election bid.The stars could yet align for Republicans in 2028, however, even though the Republican incumbent advantage of Mr. Trump in the White House makes that unlikely. If Republicans can win 48 Senate seats, then that likely means that America will have elected a Republican president — whether it be Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Governor Ron DeSantis, or some new sage. If Senate Republicans have their sweep in 2028 and a Republican president is victorious, then there would almost certainly be another Democratic backlash midterm in 2030. The GOP, in this hypothetical ideal scenario, with 48 senators going into the 2030 election, would have to flip at least two seats. The likeliest would come in Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Arizona — four states which have not elected Republican senators since the beginning of the Trump era, save Mr. Johnson in 2022. Mr. Vance himself has admitted that the Senate may be gone for Republicans until 2032. In a lengthy X post the day after the election, Mr. Vance told supporters of the war with Iran that they should stand by their position. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay,” Mr. Vance wrote. “Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”

Welcome to Washington: Democrats’ New Senate Majority Could Prove Difficult To Dislodge

Welcome to Washington: Democrats’ New Senate Majority Could Prove Difficult To Dislodge

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