What Does President Trump Have Up His Sleeve?

Whatever President Trump is attempting to achieve by admonishing Israel to avoid striking Iran, his intervention betrays a basic misunderstanding of the Mideast. Mr. Trump may yet cut his coveted “good” deal with the Islamic Republic. Even if so — a big if — distancing America from our wartime, and peacetime, ally is bad form. Especially as Tehran is attacking Israel to save Hezbollah and link the Lebanese terrorists to a final deal. President Trump told reporters on Sunday, after Iran launched more than 20 missiles at Israel, that he would urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid hitting back. Tehran claimed it avenged an Israeli attack at Beirut. Israel then struck Iranian air defenses, a petrochemical plant, and an oil hub on Kharg island. As Secretary Marco Rubio said recently, “only stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at, and we’re not a stupid country.” On Monday Mr. Trump claimed that “both sides” agreed to a ceasefire. “Final negotiations on ‘peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way,” the president wrote on TruthSocial. Both side-ism is unbecoming of an ally of Israel like Mr. Trump — even if regional analysts claim, as some do, that Iran’s attack on Israel is a prelude to a pact. Tehran, they argue, is committing final aggression before signing on to Mr. Trump’s deal.Another, more likely, theory has it that Mr. Trump never intended to muzzle Israel. His Sunday press blitz, according to that version, was never truly meant to block Mr. Netanyahu’s retaliation. Instead, it was a signal to Iran that negotiations over a deal can proceed, as this time America was not Israel’s partner. Mr. Trump was perhaps playing the good cop to Mr. Netanyahu’s bad one. Yet are the mullahs buying such an act?The Islamic Republic is currently dominated by a Revolutionary Guard Corps that fears a loss of power. A wounded supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is bent on avenging his father’s death. A deal that would block Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb and allow free navigation at Hormuz Strait could ruin the regime. Mr. Trump made clear on Monday that an American blockade in the Gulf would remain “in full force” until a final agreement is reached.Economic pressure could eventually force Tehran to cry uncle, but not yet. The mullahs built a strategy around Mideast proxies that would defend Iran in times of trouble. Now the Islamic Republic is forced to defend Hezbollah from Israel’s ire. Most Lebanese are increasingly angry at being punished for deeds plotted at faraway Tehran. Even Shiites, who are being forced out of their homes in southern Lebanon, begin to question Hezbollah’s logic. “I like to separate the Iran issue from Hezbollah,” Mr. Trump said over the weekend. “They are different. Iran is a bigger problem, a world problem.” Then again, too, try telling that to residents of northern Israel. They’ve been forced to run for cover hourly since March, when Hezbollah attacked the Jewish state. The terror group acted on behalf of Iran, which was reeling under “Epic Fury,” an operation launched in tandem by Israel and America.Distancing America from Israel is unlikely to hasten a deal with mullahs whose raison d’être is annihilating the Jewish state and ending America’s world leadership. No one in the Mideast responds well to appeasing an enemy that constantly strikes. To force Tehran’s hand our president had better have a card up his sleeve. Otherwise, his Iran war legacy could come to haunt him well beyond the midterm elections.

What Does President Trump Have Up His Sleeve?

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