What To Watch for in California’s Critical Primaries

Voters in America’s most populous state are set to decide who will advance to the November general election on Tuesday, with everything from the governor’s race to hotly contested House elections on the ballot. Depending on the outcome of the primaries on Tuesday, both parties may have to spend tens of millions of dollars before November. California is one of only two states in the nation — the other being Washington State — which uses the “jungle primary” system for both state and federal elections. That process means that candidates from all parties run in a single primary election, with the top-two vote-getters moving on to the November general election. Across the Golden State this year, the jungle primary system is likely to have incredibly serious implications for both Democrats and Republicans headed into the general election. The most important race this year is undeniably the gubernatorial election. Despite past concerns from Democratic leaders about the sizable number of Democrats running, there are six leading Democrats and only two major Republicans running in the primary. The two Republicans — Trump-endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — have consistently polled in the top four, leading to some Democrats becoming concerned that their party could be locked out of the general election. Those fears seem to have subsided, however. With President Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Hilton, the GOP have largely shifted toward the British-born former Fox News host. According to recent polling, Mr. Hilton has surged into second place, taking anywhere from 22 to 23.5 percent of the vote, while Mr. Bianco now takes around 11 percent. The leading Democratic candidate is a well-known — if not adored — longtime fixture in California politics. Xavier Becerra, who has surged into a polling lead in recent weeks, served as President Biden’s secretary of health and human services, attorney general of California, and chairman of the House Democratic Caucus during his 24-year tenure as a congressman. Mr. Becerra has emerged as a kind of consensus candidate for moderate Democrats and the party’s establishment. He is the kind of person who offends the fewest number of Democrats, especially after Congressman Eric Swanwell — a “Resistance” hero who dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress following sexual assault allegations — imploded. The more left-wing candidates in the race are billionaire Tom Steyer and a former lawmaker, Congresswoman Katie Porter. Based on polling averages, Messrs. Becerra and Hilton are favored to advance to the November runoff, though there is a nightmare scenario for Democratic fundraisers — a Becerra-Steyer contest. Mr. Steyer has poured more than $200 million of his own money into the race, and has won some important endorsements before the primary election on Tuesday. Mr. Becerra only has five members of the state’s 52-seat House delegation supporting him, while Mr. Steyer has three despite never having held elected office. More notably, zero officials from the Biden administration — in which Mr. Becerra served — have endorsed Mr. Becerra, while Mr. Biden’s former senior advisor John Podesta and his former top climate advisor, Ali Zaidi, are supporting Mr. Steyer. President Clinton’s first labor secretary, Robert Reich, is also backing Mr. Steyer. Vice President Kamala Harris has not announced for whom she cast a ballot in this year’s gubernatorial campaign despite endorsing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for another term. If Messrs. Becerra and Steyer advance to the general election, expect a deluge of money being poured into the California governor’s race that could be spent in critical congressional elections. Speaking of congressional elections, there are a slew of House races to pay attention to on Tuesday. For Republicans, there are few campaigns to watch after Democrats redrew the state’s congressional maps to hand their party five more seats. The decision to do so has forced two sitting GOP lawmakers — Congressman Ken Calvert and Congresswoman Young Kim — to run against each other in the newly drawn 40th district, which Ms. Kim currently represents. Much of Mr. Calvert’s current district is now in Ms. Kim’s, however, leading the two to run against each other. The race has gotten ugly, with Mr. Calvert accusing Ms. Kim of being a Trump-hating, pro-immigration liberal. Ms. Kim, in turn, has brought up an incident from 1993 when Mr. Calvert was caught in his car with a prostitute by police. He was never arrested or charged with a crime. Based on current polling, both Mr. Calvert and Ms. Kim are expected to advance to the general election, leading to a nasty — and costly — Republican-on-Republican general election to represent the 40th district. On the Democratic side, a number of longtime lawmakers are expected to advance to the November general election with younger, more progressive primary challengers. In the Fourth, Seventh, and 32nd Districts, three Democrats — Congressman Mike Thompson, Congresswoman Doris Matsui, and Congressman Brad Sherman — are serving in deep-blue districts. Their general election challengers will almost certainly be left-wing challengers who are planning to make an anti-gerontocracy argument from Tuesday until November. One open seat — Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco district — is also seeing a competitive primary. A city supervisor, Connie Chan, is Mrs. Pelosi’s chosen successor. State senator Scott Wiener is the polling leader and is expected to face off against either Ms. Chan or Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s former chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti.

What To Watch for in California’s Critical Primaries

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