As Iran Threatens Retaliation If America Strikes, Watch the Proxies

Will the Houthis and other members of the Islamic Republic’s “axis of resistance” attack America’s Mideast bases, Israeli targets, or international shipping if President Trump strikes Iran?Iranian and American officials hinted at progress in talks to avoid military confrontation. “I think they want to make a deal,” President Trump said Tuesday. “We were able to reach a general understanding on a set of guiding principles, on the basis of which we will move forward,” Tehran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said following a Tuesday meeting with American mediators at the Omani consulate at Geneva. Yet the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford and its strike group is expected to reach the Gulf early next week and join the Abraham Lincoln strike group. And Tehran is threatening retaliation.“We constantly hear that they have sent a warship towards Iran,” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech Tuesday. “A warship is certainly a dangerous weapon, but even more dangerous is the weapon capable of sinking it.” The Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz in a naval exercise on Tuesday, hinting they could disrupt all oil deliveries through the vital passageway. While such action is more likely to hurt Iran than its enemies, the Houthis have proven that disrupting shipping in another vital area can have global economic consequences. Up to 20 percent of world commerce passes through The Red Sea and the Houthis can shut it down, as they did for nearly two years following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. A cease-fire that was reached last May ended a two-month campaign in which America and Israel significantly degraded the Houthis’ military. The Yemeni group’s Iran-supplied missile and drone arsenal was depleted, and a number of fighters were killed. The ceasefire terms included a Houthi vow to refrain from attacking American and other ships in the Red Sea. While the promise has mostly been kept, the terrorist group used the months since May to rearm. The Yemeni group is widely considered now to be Iran’s best-equipped regional ally and most capable of wreaking havoc on the region and beyond.“The fact that the Houthis are less eager than in the past to display their arms in public shouldn’t lull us into underestimating their capabilities,” a Yemen watcher at Israel’s Regional Thinking Forum, Inbal Nissim Louvton, tells the Sun. “They are the axis of resistance’s strongest force, and the calm that existed since the cease-fire gave them an opportunity to rearm.”A dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also helps the Houthis, who control northern Yemen. A competition for influence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi increasingly divides opposition groups, Ms. Nissim-Louvton says, and the Houthis no longer feel the need to negotiate with their southern rivals. “While the number of weapons in the Houthi arsenal is difficult, if not impossible to know, the group certainly retains anti-ship capabilities as well as systems capable of reaching Israel and American infrastructure in the region,” a researcher of Iranian proxies at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Bridget Toomey, tells the Sun. Late last month the Houthis published a video depicting a ship on fire in the Red Sea with the caption “soon.” It was meant to convey a threat that in case of war in the Gulf, the Houthis could return to disrupting Red Sea shipping. “Control of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait is the Houthi’s strongest weapon,” Ms. Nissim Louvton says, referring to the passage that connects the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. “The Houthis could certainly resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea in response to attacks on Iran, either at their own discretion or if the regime in Tehran is interested in shutting down the regional maritime choke points,” Ms. Toomey adds. In November 2024 the Israelis launched a campaign against Hezbollah, which significantly degraded the arsenal of the formerly-formidable Lebanese Shiite terror group and killed commanders, including Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah. Tehran efforts to rearm the group met resistance from the Beirut leadership, while Israel is continuously pummeling the group’s assets. Arming through Syria has been a problem too since the fall of Iran’s ally Bashar al Assad. Iran is more successful with affiliated armed groups in Iraq. “These militias, in particular groups like Kataib Hezbollah, are devoted partners of the Islamic Republic, with reports that members of four militias entered Iran to assist in the brutal crackdown against protesters in January,” Ms. Toomey says. Armed by Iran, they could launch attacks against American and Israeli targets. Yet the Houthis, which have proved resilient and almost immune to losses and hits, might merit most scrutiny among Iran’s proxies.

As Iran Threatens Retaliation If America Strikes, Watch the Proxies

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