Cornyn Within Striking Distance in Texas Republican Primary Runoff as Trump Stays on the Sidelines, Poll Shows

Locked in a fierce battle to be renominated by his fellow Republicans for another term, Senator John Cornyn is within striking distance of his more conservative opponent, the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. A new poll of Texas voters shows that neither candidate is receiving a majority of the vote just weeks before the primary runoff. Mr. Cornyn has been one of the most recognizable faces in Texas GOP politics for the last three decades. First elected to the Senate in 2002 after stints as the state attorney general and a state Supreme Court justice, he has pitched himself as the only electable Republican come November, citing Mr. Paxton’s litany of personal scandals. A new survey from the University of Houston shows that his warchest and his campaign strategy have won him some new supporters despite many believing he could not win the Republican nomination this year. The poll shows Mr. Paxton leading with 48 percent of the vote and Mr. Cornyn receiving 45 percent, though the margin of error for the survey is 2.8 percent. Since launching his re-election campaign last year, Mr. Cornyn and his allies have spent more than $60 million for the effort, making it the most expensive Senate primary in American history. Senate Republican leader have lined up behind their colleague, urging President Trump to endorse him in order to help avoid a nasty November election which Democrats see as winnable if Mr. Paxton becomes the nominee. According to the University of Houston poll, neither man is exceptionally popular with the Republican voters of Texas. The survey shows Mr. Paxton with a favorable rating of only 50 percent among likely voters, while Mr. Cornyn has a favorable rating of just 47 percent. The biggest threat to the GOP in the Lone Star State this year is the Democratic nominee for Senate, state representative James Talarico. According to the poll released Tuesday, Republicans are evenly divided on the question of which GOP candidate would be best to face off against Mr. Talarico in November. “Forty-three percent of the respondents said Cornyn and 43% said Paxton had the best chance to defeat Talarico. Fourteen percent of the respondents were of the opinion that neither Cornyn nor Paxton is a stronger November candidate than the other,” the university’s analysts write in their polling memo. Mr. Cornyn was widely seen as the underdog in the race last year when he announced he would seek a fifth term in the Senate. Primary polling showed Mr. Paxton with a double-digit lead early in the race, and the entrance of another Republican, Congressman Wesley Hunt, threatened to split the primary field and leave Mr. Cornyn out of the runoff election. By the time the first round of voting was over, however, Mr. Cornyn ended up placing 1.5 points ahead of Mr. Paxton, 42 percent to 40.5 percent. In order to avoid the runoff, a candidate needed to receive a majority of the vote, which Mr. Talarico did on the Democratic side. “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years. There’s simply too much at stake,” Mr. Cornyn told reporters after he secured a place in the primary runoff. Not only has he said he is the only candidate who can beat Mr. Talarico in November, but he also says Mr. Paxton would put several must-win House seats in play should he become the nominee. Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional maps last summer, relying on 2024 results among Hispanic voters, a demographic that moved sharply to the right. If that same cohort moves back in a significant way toward Democrats, the redistricting fight risks the GOP netting two or three seats instead of the five they set out to win. If he does win the primary, Mr. Cornyn’s victory is far from guaranteed. Democrats are exceptionally motivated to get out and vote, with more Democrats casting ballots than Republicans in the first round of the Senate primary in March. As of the most recent Federal Election Commission data, Mr. Talarico has more than $9 million in his campaign account after raising more than $40 million during the course of his campaign. Polling shows that Mr. Cornyn is only a marginally better candidate than Mr. Paxton against the Democrat. A poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research shows Mr. Cornyn trailing Mr. Talarico by three points, 41 percent to 44 percent, while Mr. Paxton is trailing by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. That poll had a margin of error of 3.3 points.

Cornyn Within Striking Distance in Texas Republican Primary Runoff as Trump Stays on the Sidelines, Poll Shows

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