Netanyahu Flips the Script on Election Night Projections

Israelis who went to sleep believing change was coming, woke up on Wednesday morning sensing that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ever closer to keeping his hold on the country’s leadership. Mr. Netanyahu is yet to reach the magic number of 61 supporters among the 120-member Knesset. The leader of the “change bloc,” the former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, could be the next premier if he coalesces with the largest Arab party. Doing so, though, would violate his vow to rely only on Zionist parties.If Mr. Netanyahu prevails, it would not be the first time in Israel’s history that the right seemed to have lost an election when voting ended, only to emerge victorious hours or days later. Early evening in 1981, for one, the Labor party leader, Shimon Peres, declared himself the next prime minister. Hours later Likud chief Menachem Begin ridiculed Peres, famously saying “he was premature.”Mr. Netanyahu is “probably winning or tied, but I heard he’s doing pretty well,” President Trump said Tuesday. While the president endorsed the Israeli premier, the White House reportedly favors a future government that would unite the rivaling parties. The animosity between the two blocs could prevent such a coalition. To capture the leadership Mr. Eisenkot might try to lure dissenting Likud members to his side. Similarly, some in the change bloc might be tempted to defect if Mr. Netanyahu promises them plum government posts. The other scenario, a large Jewish coalition uniting Messrs. Netanyahu and Eisenkot could help Washington promote Mr. Trump’s Mideast goals. With 77 percent of the votes counted, Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party commands 27 Knesset seats, a significant lead over the runner up, Mr. Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which captured 22 seats. The largest Arab faction, known as the United party, is the fourth largest Knesset power, with 12 seats. Another Arab faction, Raam, has six seats.The election results could flip once again. The count of a large number of votes — soldiers, diplomats, and others who cast ballots away from official polling stations — will only be finalized by Thursday. For now, though, the Netanyahu-led bloc commands 54 Knesset seats, to the change bloc’s 49. The two Arab majority parties have 19 seats.Voters seem to have sent a conflicted message on their desired leadership. On the one hand, a large majority desires an end to Mr. Netanyahu’s political career: The change bloc and the two Arab lists command a majority of 66 Knesset seats. On the other hand, a majority of Likud and several members of the change bloc, reject a coalition that would rely on the Arab parties. How, then, could this deadlock end? Mr. Eisenkot had declared that to rule he would only rely on Zionist parties that recognize Israel as a Jewish-majority state and are committed to obliterating Hamas. The Joint Arab list contains members who reject those conditions. The smaller Arab party, Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, might satisfy Mr. Eisenkot’s demands, but its six Knesset seats would still be short of a majority for the change bloc. The deadlock could be broken if Mr. Eisenkot reneges on his election promises by coalescing with both Arab parties. Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, could lure the smaller Arab party to his side by promising significant government role to Mr. Abbas. Yet the premier too will meet significant resistance for such a move from his coalition partners.

Netanyahu Flips the Script on Election Night Projections

Netanyahu Flips the Script on Election Night Projections

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