Democrats Face Likely Disappointment in Midterm Voting, Even Though a Well-Adapted GOP Has Grounds for Worry

As they look to the midterm elections, Republicans have reason to worry — but not despair.They’re going to be fighting uphill all the way to hold onto their majority in the House, which they currently control by the razor-thin margin of just six seats.That includes one member, Representative Kevin Kiley, who officially left the GOP but still caucuses with the party.“Fragile” hardly does justice to the state of the GOP’s House majority.Democrats look at President Trump’s approval ratings and exult:As of early May, six months before the midterms, Mr. Trump’s approval in the RealClearPolitics polling averages was an anemic 40.7 percent, and since then polls have shown him slipping further.Democrats took more than 40 House seats from the GOP in the 2018 midterms, when Mr. Trump’s numbers were a little better: RealClear’s aggregate notched him at 43.6 percent approval the day before the election.The House Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, is just counting down the days until he becomes speaker.What could go wrong?Two things might yet thwart Mr. Jeffries’ ambitions.One is the Supreme Court, which has overturned the race-based approach to drawing congressional districts that long served to protect Democratic incumbents and carve out blue seats in red states.The court also slapped down Democrats’ attempts to get the federal judiciary to toss out a Virginia supreme court decision that killed their dreams of gerrymandering away four Republican seats in that state.As things stand, when all the mid-decade redistricting across the country is finished, Republicans stand to gain up to 10 House seats.Though they have to remember what they’re actually getting is more Republican-leaning district maps — they still have to close the deal with voters.Even if they do, 10 more seats won’t stop a wave like the one that swept away the Republican House majority Mr. Trump enjoyed at the start of his first term.Yet the second barrier Democrats will have to overcome is that voters just don’t behave the way they used to:For nearly a quarter of a century, the American public exhibited wild swings in party preference in House elections, creating midterm waves in 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018.Yet 2022 broke the pattern:President Biden’s aggregate approval in the polls was at 42.2 percent, and Republicans expected a giant swing in their direction — yet they didn’t get it, just as Democrats got no boost in the House two years earlier despite their success in the 2020 presidential election.Mr. Biden claimed record numbers of voters in his race, yet Democrats actually lost seats in the House that year.Mr. Trump’s victory in 2024 also didn’t bring about much change in the House; Republicans lost two seats.In other words, the last three elections — in 2020, 2022, and 2024 — have told a tale of surprising stability, with only small adjustments to the numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the House, leading to nerve-rackingly narrow margins of control for each party.Mr. Jeffries should be careful for what he wishes. He might wind up with only a slender majority, one that could be lost if too many geriatric Democrats die in office.As of a year ago, more than 50 House Democrats were over the age of 70. Three have since died.Republicans don’t have quite as many elderly members in the House, but so small is the GOP majority that even a single maverick member like CongressmanThomas Massie can threaten to derail major legislation or trigger new elections for speaker.Pain has forced Republicans to get serious, however, and Mr. Trump has been relentless about imposing discipline on the party.Mr. Massie can attest to that, as can the five Republican state senators who lost their primaries on May 5 after Mr. Trump condemned them for opposing a plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts to give the GOP a greater edge.This is another reason to think Republicans have a fighting chance in November:Despite the headlines in hostile press, the Republican Party is remarkably unified behind Mr. Trump, who can end the careers of state senators in Indiana or a United States senator like Bill Cassidy in Louisiana.Mr. Trump can do that because — and only because — the voters are with him.If House elections have indeed reached a rough equilibrium since 2020, there will be no wave, and even a pickup of just eight to 10 seats through redistricting could save the Republican majority by the skin of its teeth.Democrats are counting on this November being a replay of 2018, or President George W. Bush’s disastrous second midterms in 2006.Yet look to the primaries so far for a clue: This is a very different Republican Party, and it’s well-adapted for the political landscape Mr. Trump has remade; in an era of close elections, it’s a party that can win.Creators.com

Democrats Face Likely Disappointment in Midterm Voting, Even Though a Well-Adapted GOP Has Grounds for Worry

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