Democrats Poised To Control Supreme Court — and Possibly Pack It, Undoing One of Trump’s Signature Achievements

The consequences of the Democratic rout of Republicans could extend all the way to One First Street in Washington, D.C. — home of the Supreme Court, where the election results could end President Trump’s chances of reshaping the high bench.The so-called “blue tsunami” has delivered the opposition party control of the Senate. Democrats will hold at least 54 seats in the upper chamber, and that number could climb to 56 as votes are counted on Wednesday. That stranglehold effectively means that Mr. Trump’s effort to confirm new federal judges — and Supreme Court justices — will have to pass through a blue wall.The New York Sun spoke to a Supreme Court watcher, Josh Blackman, who predicts that Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas may not retire while a Republican president enjoys a Republican Senate, at least not for another seven years or so. Mr. Blackman predicts that “should the Democrats clear 60 votes in 2028, I think court packing is very likely. If they are close to 60, the filibuster may be abolished to achieve court reform.”The Constitution ordains that “Judges of the Supreme Court” are to be nominated by the president and confirmed “with the Advice and Consent of the Senate.” Federal jurists serve for life unless they retire, resign, or are removed through impeachment. The Senate’s task of providing advice and consent means that confirmation requires a simple majority vote. The most recent justice to be confirmed was President Biden’s appointee, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, in 2022.Mr. Trump has named three justices to the high bench — Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and Amy Coney Barrett in 2020. Justice Barrett took the seat that had been occupied by a liberal lioness, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Despite widespread concern over her health, Justice Ginsburg persisted on the court until her death in September 2020. Justice Barrett was confirmed by the Senate on October 26 of that year — just a week before the election won by President Biden.Now advancing age has come for two of the Supreme Court’s conservative stalwarts. The court’s senior jurist, Justice Thomas, is 78, and Justice Alito is 76. Among the court’s liberals, Justice Sonia Sotomayor leads the pack at age 72. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida took to X as results rolled in on Tuesday evening to reckon that the “Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and/or Alito during President Trump’s term: Zero.”Mr. DeSantis elaborated at a press conference on Wednesday morning, declaring that “no Supreme Court justice will be confirmed under President Trump’s administration unless something happens in the next six weeks.” While a lame-duck confirmation could technically be possible, it appears unlikely. If Justice Thomas serves another 564 days, he will pass Justice William O. Douglas as the longest-serving justice in history.Mr. DeSantis added on X that the “chance of confirming a worthy successor” to Justices Alito or Thomas “during a hypothetical GOP admin 2029-2033: probably zero (GOP won’t be able to recapture enough seats in 28).” Even that hypothetical, though, depends on Republicans retaining the White House in an election without an incumbent — Mr. Trump is barred from running again by the 22nd Amendment.Justice Alito told CBS News last month, with respect to the possibility of retirement, “It’s something that I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term. But I thought that I could still make a valuable contribution, which is why I became a justice and a judge in the first place.” He pushed back on the implication that politics ought to play a role, reckoning that “It’s too hard to predict what the political situation will be and what any president might do with respect to a replacement.”If Democrats hold both chambers of Congress and capture the White House in the 2028 election, structural change to the high court could be in the offing. The liberal law professor Steven Vladeck wrote on Wednesday morning, “Court reform is no longer a niche cause for the Democratic Party’s progressive flank.” Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, in line to serve as Speaker of the House, has endorsed “dramatic reform.” Vice President Kamala Harris and Congressman Jim Clyburn also back expanding the number of court seats.The Constitution is mum on the number of justices on the high court, which has stood at nine since 1869. A simple statute would be enough to expand its ranks, though in practice 60 votes would be needed to overcome the filibuster. If the Democrats claim the White House in 2028, Chief Justice John Roberts’s court could lurch left.

Democrats Poised To Control Supreme Court — and Possibly Pack It, Undoing One of Trump’s Signature Achievements

Democrats Poised To Control Supreme Court — and Possibly Pack It, Undoing One of Trump’s Signature Achievements

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