From Cuba to Iran, Russia Retreats to Middle-Power Status

After failing to protect three allies in 15 months — Syria, Venezuela, and now Iran — Russia looks more and more like a second-tier power. It may have the world’s largest landmass and the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, but it lacks a key attribute of a superpower: the ability to defend an ally.Despite signing last year in the Kremlin “strategic partnerships” with the leaders of Venezuela and Iran, Russia reacted only with words when President Trump gave President Nicolás Maduro and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the hook. Belying lavish signing ceremonies in glittering Kremlin halls, Russia now looks like a middle power.This “pummeling is embarrassing to Moscow,” Canadian-American foreign affairs analyst Diane Francis wrote yesterday. “The Kremlin was nowhere to be seen as American forces surrounded the Ayatollah’s regime, or when the U.S. recently assaulted its other allies, Venezuela and Cuba.”Presidents Assad and Putin at Damascus on January 7, 2020. Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin pool photo via APPosing as players, Russian leaders placed calls yesterday to the region. Since there was no one to pick up the phone at Tehran, President Vladimir Putin called Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and then the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, called his Saudi counterpart. According to a Kremlin readout, Mr. Putin told the crown prince that there is an urgent need to resolve this “extremely dangerous situation” through political and diplomatic means.To make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, Kremlin allies gloated yesterday that Russia would profit from higher oil and gas prices. The war has effectively stopped tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that controls 20 percent of globally traded oil and 30 percent of liquefied natural gas. Last night, a barrel of Brent oil was trading for $77.44, nearly a 6 percent jump over Friday, the day before the Israeli-US attacks on Iran.“$100+ oil per barrel soon,” Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted on X. “Not only an oil shock but also a natural gas shock. EU gas prices have already risen 22% since the attack on Iran and could more than DOUBLE soon. The EU’s strategic blunder of avoiding cheap and reliable Russian gas is backfiring. Europe once again will need Russia to survive.”An oil tanker is moored at the Sheskharis oil and petroleum complex on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Russia in 2022. APLeading state TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov told viewers that “for our budget” the attack on Iran “is a big plus.” He added that “if Trump strikes Iranian oil fields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we would become one of the few remaining producing countries.”It does appear, in the short term, that knocking Iran out of the oil market would help Russia, which depends on oil sales for about one quarter of its state revenue. However, if regime change does take place and Western sanctions are lifted, Iranian oil could displace Russian oil in many markets, notably Europe.Russia and Persia have been frenemies for the last 500 years. In the Putin era, blocking Turkey and the West are causes that brought the two neighbors together. Hemmed in by Western sanctions, the two nations tightened trade and investment links.After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, Iran became the leading supplier of kamikaze drones to Russia. In a $1.75 billion deal, Iran built an entire drone factory in Tatarstan, 700 miles east of Russia’s border with Ukraine.Tehran “chose to become Putin’s accomplice,” President Volodymyr Zelensky posted Saturday on X, referring to Iran’s low tech, but deadly Shahed drones. “Over the course of this full-scale war, Russia has used more than 57,000 Shahed-type attack drones against the Ukrainian people, cities, and energy infrastructure.”Iranians walk in a park with missiles in the background on January 20, 2024 at Tehran. Majid Saeedi/Getty ImagesIn return, Russia has been Iran’s primary weapons supplier. During last January’s crackdown that killed as many 30,000 protesters, Iranian security forces used Spartak armored vehicles and Orsis T-5000M sniper rifles — all acquired over the last two years from Russia.Today, American and Israeli aviators deal with Russia-supplied S-300 missile systems and Krasukha electronic warfare systems. In recent years, Iran’s billions of dollars of arms purchases included Yak-130 jet trainers and Mi-28 attack helicopters. In the fall, details emerged of an Iranian contract to take delivery by 2028 of 48 Su-35 advanced combat jets.Last week the Financial Times reported that Iran signed a nearly $600 million deal in December to buy 500 man-portable Verba launch units, 500 Mowgli-2 night vision sights, and 2,500 9M336 missiles. Ordered after America and Israel devastated Russia’s air defenses last July, the new equipment was scheduled for delivery through 2028. Since December, as many as 10 Russian heavy military transport planes have flown to Iran, Russia-Iran expert Nikita Smagin reported Saturday for Carnegie Politika.Further reflecting strong ties, Russia is building the North-South Transport Corridor, a dedicated rail line to link Russia with the Persian Gulf. In addition, Russia’s nuclear energy company Rosatom signed a memorandum last fall to build eight nuclear power plants in Iran by 2040. Fifteen years ago, Rosatom completed Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant, at Bushehr. After the bombing started last weekend, Rosatom evacuated hundreds of employees overland to Azerbaijan and on to Russia.Despite this aid and trade, the fate of the last pro-Russian regime in the Middle East now hangs in the balance. After investing heavily in Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Iran, Russia now seems to be pulling in its horns and retreating reluctantly to middle-power status.On Sunday, the world saw the latest evidence of Russia’s diminished standing. Belgium seized an oil tanker belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet. Russia’s population of 144 million is 12 times larger than Belgium’s. After Belgian special forces troops rappelled down to the deck of the Ethera, the Belgian defense minister, Theo Francken posted on X: “Without his shadow fleet Putin can’t wage war against innocent Ukrainians. So we take these vessels out. One by one. Till his war of aggression stops.”

From Cuba to Iran, Russia Retreats to Middle-Power Status

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