Intelligence Agency Warns of Growing Risk of Russian Attack on Western Europe

Danish intelligence officials say there is a growing risk of an attack by Russia on one of its Western neighbors, as the CIA has reportedly warned several countries that Moscow could target them with drones hidden in ships in the Mediterranean Sea.A Danish threat assessment released Thursday stated that the security situation is deteriorating as Russia has intensified a hybrid war with its use of sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone attacks in Europe. It also claimed there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the unclassified report said. The purpose of the attack, according to the Danes, would be to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response.The report said the attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support for Ukraine. Russia might then claim that the weapons struck NATO territory only because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country.The report said the attack could happen even if Russia has not yet built up the military capabilities necessary to wage a wider regional war.Russia could also deploy a limited number of military forces, possibly without national insignia, into NATO countries bordering Russia, according to the intelligence service. The report said that remains unlikely in the near term because Moscow would likely need to conduct a difficult-to-conceal buildup of regular forces near the border ahead of time in order to counter a potential NATO response.Danish intelligence said it saw no indication that Russia will launch an outright invasion of one or several NATO countries but that it could not be ruled out. The report found that Russia would likely carry out military attacks only if it assessed that such attacks would not trigger a collective NATO military response.Denmark is not alone in warning about possible Russian drone or missile attacks. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament last week that Moscow could try to frame an attack as an accidental strike.The CIA also reportedly warned European governments about the possibility of a Russian drone attack on Spain, France, or Italy. A source close to Lithuania’s defense ministry told the Spanish daily El Mundo that the drones could be hidden in a shipping container and launched from the Mediterranean.The report claimed the Russians would use 2-meter-long Gerbera drones that can reach speeds of around 100 miles per hour and carry explosive payloads. Those explosives would not be enough to destroy a large facility, but could cause a fire, damage equipment, or temporarily close a port or airport.European countries were reportedly warned of the threat shortly after the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, made an unannounced visit to Moscow in August.El Mundo said the CIA information was very precise in its description of the potential attack and that the French gave it considerable credence. President Emmanuel Macron held a closed-door Elysée Palace security briefing last week with leaders from the political right, left, and center after the warning. The attendees were told that the security situation in Europe was “worrying, even very serious,” the French communist party leader, Fabien Roussel, said.The Spanish paper said Spain, France, or Italy had been identified as possibly Russian targets because they have elections scheduled next year and an attack could benefit factions that advocate reduced support for Ukraine.Predictions of Russian sea-launched drone attacks are not new. The Ukrainian outlet Defense Express reported a year ago that Russia could launch Gerbera rockets from tankers in its “ghost fleet” that secretly transports sanctioned oil.Russia is already carrying out an escalating hybrid war, according to the Danish Security and Intelligence Service. It cited a failed August 4-5 drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport that German authorities say was planned over a period of several months.The intelligence service predicted that Russia will intensify its attacks against the West and NATO, including destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties.The intelligence service has previously warned publicly that Russia is planning and preparing sabotage against defense companies on Danish soil. “Russia has become more willing to take risks,” the assessment stated.Russian forces are also exhibiting increased aggression toward NATO military units in the Baltic Sea region, according to the Danish Defense Intelligence Service. On September 14, a Russian frigate in the waters off Gedser fired flares at a Danish military helicopter in one incident.The assessment found that Russia is under more pressure than it has been at any previous point since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The report said the Russian economy is on the brink of a major crisis because of military expenditures, international sanctions, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Long‑range attacks are causing extensive damage deep inside Russia and it is suffering heavy troop losses for marginal territorial gains in Ukraine.“There is no prospect of Russia achieving any major breakthroughs in the war against Ukraine over the next six months,” the report stated. “At the same time, it is highly unlikely that President Putin will be willing to compromise on his fundamental objectives for the war.”Russia’s hybrid attacks against Western targets have mainly been aimed at creating fear and weakening public support for aid to Ukraine, but the Danish report said Moscow has begun to directly seek to prevent support from reaching Ukraine. It cited sabotage against defense companies and a train carrying military equipment to Ukraine.Intelligence reports claim Russia might have a narrow window of opportunity to launch attacks on Western Europe. Danish intelligence officials say Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability which, by 2030, will pose an increasing threat to Russia. That could convince Mr. Putin that it is worth the risk to try to drastically change the security order in Europe now.

Intelligence Agency Warns of Growing Risk of Russian Attack on Western Europe

Intelligence Agency Warns of Growing Risk of Russian Attack on Western Europe

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