Leader of the Second Intifada or Hamas Could Win If Palestinian Elections Go Ahead

Under pressure from donors, the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, has scheduled late fall elections, which, if they happen are likely to backfire and empower terrorists. Mr. Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, was convinced by European and Arab backers to announce a November 28 parliamentary election, followed by a presidential election early next year. Donors to the Fatah party-led Authority are hoping that even the announcement could be presented as Palestinian “reform.”While left-leaning Israelis contend that an election would promote a fast-fading peace process, they are a small minority. “The Israeli interest is that Palestinian elections won’t happen, as they will strengthen Hamas,” a senior Arab affairs analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Yoni Ben Menachem, tells The New York Sun.Opinion polls show that in a possible presidential election a convicted terrorist, Marwan Barghouti, would lead far ahead of any other candidate. Mr. Abbas, meanwhile, is extremely unpopular. “Top advisers within Fatah are pressuring Abu Mazen to postpone the election,” Mr. Ben Menachem says. “Abbas will make a decision only after the Israeli election” on October 27. Israel’s current right wing coalition is the first since 1988 to last its entire four-year term in power. Past governments collapsed in Knesset no-confidence votes, leading to frequent election cycles. The 90-year-old Mr. Abbas, in contrast, won a four year term as president in a January 2005 election, and he is yet to relinquish power.Hamas won a 2006 parliamentary majority, after which it violently evicted its rival, Fatah from Gaza, where it ruled for the next 20 years. Fearing a similar Hamas victory in a scheduled 2022 legislative election, Mr. Abbas abruptly cancelled the vote. He cited Israel’s refusal to allow Arabs living in its unified capital, Jerusalem, to participate. That ban will likely persist even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netayahu loses power in October. Jerusalem’s Arab residents can vote in polling stations outside the capital. Yet if Mr. Abbas decides to once again forgo an election, he can use the Jerusalem ban as pretext. Additionally, conducting an election in Gaza, where Hamas controls the cities, might present a challenge.Demand for Palestinian ‘Reform’European and Arab countries are eager to start the reconstruction of Gaza — and end Israel’s control of more than half of the Strip. A major cornerstone in President Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza’s rehabilitation, though, demands a Ramallah “reform.”“Palestinian elections now,” is how France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, put it in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. Scheduling an election, he writes, is “in line with the commitment of President Mahmoud Abbas to President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a year ago.” The United Nations is always “for elections,” its chief spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, tells the Sun. “We stand ready to assist in whatever way we can in these elections.”The UN is Mr. Abbas’s natural playground. After Washington denied the Palestinian leader a visa to participate in this week’s gathering of heads of state, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to allow him to address the session via video from Ramallah.America, though, demands more substantial reform than just an announcement of election — including an end to Mr. Abbas’s use of donor funds to pay off families of dead Arab terrorists. Yet some in the White House are eager to start the reconstruction of Gaza under President Trump’s 20-point plan.Palestinian control of Gaza, according to the plan, would not start before “such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program.” Is an election part of that reform? According to Mr. Barrot, only candidates that accept “right of Israel to exist and the renunciation of armed struggle,” will be allowed to participate in the upcoming elections. And that “excludes terrorist organizations like Hamas,” the French minister says. Who Will Participate — And Win?Even as polls show public disappointment with Hamas and decreased approval of the war it launched on October 7, 2023, massacre, Mr. Abbas often calls for unification of Palestinian factions, including Hamas. “Fatah’s hands are always extended for unity,” its secretary-general, Jibril Rajoub, said in July.Meanwhile Barghouti, the most popular Palestinian leader, was convicted by an Israeli court in 2004 of leading a series of terrorist attacks in the early 2000s violence known as the second intifada. He was sentenced to five lifetime prison terms plus 40 years, and Israel is unlikely to release him to run for the presidency. While a former Fatah stalwart, Barghouti is admired by Hamas, which has demanded his release from prison in exchange for Gaza-held Israeli hostages. He is popular in Gaza and the West Bank. If a presidential election were held today, Barghouti would win 48 percent of the vote, according to an August opinion poll conducted by the People Company for Polls and Survey Research, an independent Palestinian outfit founded by pollster Khalil Shikaki. Far behind in second place with 16 percent support, is Hamas leader, Khalil al-Hayya. According to the PCPSR poll, 97 percent of Palestinians are calling on Mr. Abbas to resign. In the 21st year of his 4-year term, Mr. Abbas is positioning his 64-year-old son, Yasser, to succeed him as leader. The nanogenrean Mr. Abbas, though, is a life-long smoker with a chronic heart condition, which could cloud the Palestinian Authority succession picture.Internal rivalries and factions are likely to become intense in the post-Abbas era. An election can guarantee a life-time leadership, which might be decided by bullets, rather than ballots.

Leader of the Second Intifada or Hamas Could Win If Palestinian Elections Go Ahead

Leader of the Second Intifada or Hamas Could Win If Palestinian Elections Go Ahead

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