‘Statistically Impossible’? Raman’s Rise in L.A. Mayor’s Race Feeds Doubters New Grist Over California Election Integrity

Accusations of fraud are tainting the credibility of the Los Angeles mayoral election as late-breaking returns raise questions about statistical probabilities following the dramatic ascendance of Councilwoman Nithya Raman in the drawn-out vote-counting process.Ms. Raman had trailed eight points behind insurgent candidate Spencer Pratt on election night, a full week ago. The two were fighting for the second-place spot to challenge incumbent Karen Bass in the general election. California’s blanket primary pits all candidates regardless of party in the primary with the top two going to a November head-to-head.Though the primary is nonpartisan per se, Mr. Pratt, a Republican who was running as an independent, was seeking to eliminate one of his Democratic challengers for a position in the finals. Republicans make up fewer than 15 percent of registered voters in the city, but Mr. Pratt’s enthusiastic campaigning pushed him to within the margins of error and even over Ms. Raman in some pre-election polling. However, with more than 80 percent of voters using mail-in ballots, Mr. Pratt’s eight-point lead rapidly dwindled over the week — by a sum that Pratt supporters say is a statistically improbable turn of events. Ms. Raman is now projected to finish second.According to the vote tally, Ms. Raman had a net gain of more than 55,000 votes over Mr. Pratt since Election Night — earning nearly 40 percent of all mail-in votes counted since last week. That far outpaced her competitors, including Ms. Bass who remains in pole position. It is also well beyond pre-Election Day polling numbers showing Ms. Raman with about 25 percent of the public’s support. California’s voting laws allow ballots that arrive by mail up to six days after an election to be counted. The reliability of the ballot collection process has been marred by accusations of ballot harvesting on Skid Row and questions about election integrity since every registered voter receives a ballot in the mail whether they request one or not.“No way this could have happened. Rigged Election!” the nation’s election-skeptic-in-chief, President Trump, wrote on Truth Social about the numerical differences from a week ago. He shared a screenshot of an X post from Congressman Abe Hamadeh saying California is incapable of running free and fair elections.“What’s happening in LA is extremely abnormal. How did Spencer Pratt go from a 77% chance of advancing to now a 0.5% chance?” wrote conservative influencer and independent journalist, Nick Shirley, who gained prominence after his 2025 video exposed fraud at Somali-run childcare centers in Minnesota. The vote-counting process can take up to 30 days. County elections officials must report their final results by July 3, 2026. The secretary of state, Shirley N. Weber, will certify the results by July 10, 2026.“Accuracy comes before speed. California is the nation’s largest voting state, with millions of ballots to process and count. Taking the time to do this work correctly protects voters’ rights and ensures the integrity of our elections,” Ms. Weber said in a news release. “California has built a strong system that expands access, empowers voters, and ensures more Californians can fully participate in our democracy,” she continued. Mr. Pratt joined the race after frustrations over the Bass administration’s response to last year’s Palisades Fire. He blamed ineptitude for allowing reservoirs to run dry, which contributed to his house, and thousands of others, burning down.After a strong performance in a candidate’s debate, Mr. Pratt ran an unexpectedly viral campaign based on fixing Los Angeles — from taking care of potholes to taking a harder line on crime and homelessness. The former reality star and animal lover made appearances across a spectrum of news outlets, gaining attention across the nation. The popularity of Mr. Spratt’s AI-generated campaign ads left even Ms. Raman, a little-known progressive and a late entry into the race, reluctantly accepting her third-place finish on election night in what C-SPAN called a “concession speech.”Though Ms. Raman did not explicitly concede as the ballots were still being counted, she told her supporters, “We may not get an answer we like, but regardless of what happens next, nobody, nobody can take away what all of us have built together.”Her outlook sounded very different on Monday evening as election officials suggested her second-place finish was a done deal. “I’m incredibly honored that voters have given us the opportunity to advance to the general election for Mayor of Los Angeles,” Ms. Raman said in an X post that was met with considerable skepticism.“Democrats overwhelmingly vote late and by mail — but only Nithya Raman Democrats, not Karen Bass Democrats. Just totally insane stuff,” one poll-watcher posted.The turnabout is indeed dramatic. At 10:30 p.m. local time on the night of the election Ms. Raman had secured 79,133 votes in the tally, according to the Associated Press, far behind Mr. Pratt’s 112,949. Ms. Bass had secured 139,172 votes. Several other also-ran candidates lagged far behind.As of Monday evening, however, Ms. Raman had surged by 150,443 votes, nearly tripling her take. Mr. Pratt gained an additional 94,626 votes or a nearly 84 percent increase while Ms. Bass almost doubled her numbers to 275,172 as of Monday evening.Actor and producer, Kevin Sorbo, described Ms. Raman’s rise in the vote count as implausible. “Nithya had single digit support and conceded the election. Now she has more mail-in ballots than Pratt AND Bass. Make that one make sense,” he said.Others called the turn of events more than implausible. “The likelihood that Raman, a candidate who got 24% of the in-person votes, magically received 40% of the mail in votes, is statistically impossible. It is statistically equivalent to correctly calling 6,053 coin tosses… …IN A ROW,” said a former nuclear scientist with the Department of Energy and commentator Matt van Swol.While Democrats say claims of statistical impossibility are the ravings of election deniers and remedial math students, disparities of that magnitude have raised questions about the integrity of California’s elections. Mr. Trump’s assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, Bill Essayli, who has called the state a “fraudster’s paradise,” said his office is investigating multiple cases of election fraud though state officials are obstructing a federal audit of its voter rolls. “Transparency and oversight is the best way to instill confidence and trust in the election system,” Mr. Essayli said on X. ” California is the only state that allows unfettered third-party ballot harvesting: no ballot limit, no collector restrictions, and no chain of custody.”A Democratic congressman from California, Ro Khanna however, rejected fraud accusations even as he acknowledged that the drawn-out post-election count is eroding trust in the system and spawning conspiracy theories. “We need to figure out in California how we can get the vote counted faster and results tabulated so it does not drag on,” Mr. Khanna said in an X post. “It is worth spending the resources to get the vast majority of the vote counted within 48 hours,” he went on to say.

‘Statistically Impossible’? Raman’s Rise in L.A. Mayor’s Race Feeds Doubters New Grist Over California Election Integrity

‘Statistically Impossible’? Raman’s Rise in L.A. Mayor’s Race Feeds Doubters New Grist Over California Election Integrity

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