Lula — the ‘Brazilian Biden’ — Prefers the World Over Washington

After a razor thin victory of under two percentage points, Brazil’s veteran leftwing politician Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will assume in January the presidency of a country deeply divided between left and right. Yet for Brazil, an increasingly mercantilist nation, foreign policy debates stop at the water’s edge.With the defeat of President Bolsonaro, who on Tuesday signaled cooperation with a transfer of power, a switch from the “Trump of the Tropics” to “the Brazilian Biden” is unlikely to move Brazil into the column of automatic Washington supporters. Brazil, a nation of 216 million people, sees itself as an autonomous power of the “Global South.”Brazilians see their identity intertwined with the 16-year-old club comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. “Our China trade is more important than our trade with the US and Europe together,” the chairman of the Brazilian Center for International Relations, José Pio Borges, told me by phone today.“BRICS has become very important for Brazil,” he said. “The most important position of Brazil will be in favor a multi-polar world.”A farming powerhouse, Brazil helps feed a billion persons around the world. Last time Mr. da Silva was president, between 2003 and 2010, he visited 80 countries to promote trade and investment.“We are Western, we are democratic, we are friends of the U.S., but we have our business interests in Asia,” Mr. Borges said. “There is not going to be a major change, a commitment to democracies against autocracies. These new narratives create antagonism against Russia, to China.”A key “continuismo” will be Brazil’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war. Partly due to the BRICS club, each of Brazil’s last five presidents has visited Moscow. Mr. da Silva visited twice. In return, President Putin visited Brazil twice. Both countries have economies of about the same size — $1.45 trillion — as New York State.Mr. Putin’s most recent visit to Brazil was the most controversial. One week before Mr. Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Bolsonaro brushed off warnings from Washington that war was about to break out. He went ahead with a pre-planned visit to Moscow, meeting with Mr. Putin for two hours.In a press conference in Moscow, Mr. Putin said Brazil was in “solidarity” with Russia. Mr. Bolsonaro, on his return to Brazil, told reporters in Rio that Brazil would “adopt a neutral stance on Ukraine.” In a snub to President Zelensky, Mr. Bolsonaro lamented that Ukrainians “entrusted a comedian with the fate of a nation.”Brazil then joined the three other BRICS nations in refusing to place trade sanctions on Russia. During the first six months of the war, Brazil’s average monthly trade with Russia ran at double last year’s level, according to calculations by the New York Times. Brazil’s imports of Russian goods are up by 166 percent year over year.Part of this could be explained by Mr. Bolsonaro’s pique over the electoral defeat of President Trump, his political soul mate. In Mr. Trump’s last year in the White House, Mr. Bolsonaro talked about Brazil joining NATO and allowing the American military to open a base in Brazil.For one year after Mr. Biden’s inauguration, the leaders of the two largest nations of the Americas never talked. In June, amid Mr. Biden’s fears that Mr. Bolsonaro could be re-elected, the two leaders held what Reuters called “an awkward, hastily arranged meeting,” at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles.On Ukraine, little policy change is expected after Mr. da Silva is inaugurated president. Last May, in a lengthy interview with Ciara Nugent of Time, Mr. da Silva blamed part of the war on America and the EU for not squelching Ukrainian ambitions to join NATO and the European Union.“Putin shouldn’t have invaded Ukraine. But it’s not just Putin who is guilty,” Mr. da Silva said. “The U.S. and the E.U. are also guilty. What was the reason for the Ukraine invasion? NATO? Then the U.S. and Europe should have said: ‘Ukraine won’t join NATO.’ That would have solved the problem.”“People are stimulating hate against Putin. That won’t solve things,” said Mr. da Silva, who as president visited Ukraine in 2009. “We need to reach an agreement. But people are encouraging [the war]. You are encouraging this guy [Zelensky], and then he thinks he is the cherry on your cake.”____________James Brooke worked for 10 years as a correspondent in Brazil, including seven years as Brazil Bureau Chief for the New York Times.

Lula — the ‘Brazilian Biden’ — Prefers the World Over Washington

Lula — the ‘Brazilian Biden’ — Prefers the World Over Washington

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