Middle East Maneuvering Suggests American-Israeli Hostilities Against Iran Will Be Sooner Instead of Later

As signs increase that a war in the Gulf is nearing, all eyes are on the ultimate decider — President Trump. Yet the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, could be just as consequential for shaping the upcoming events. “If last weekend I allowed myself to fly to Munich, I would think twice about flying this weekend,” a former army intelligence chief, Amos Yadlin, told N12 television when asked about the timing of an American-Israeli clash with Iran. Phone banks at the home front command reportedly nearly crashed under frantic calls from concerned citizens. Negotiations at Geneva between Mr. Trump’s envoys and Tehran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Tuesday seemed to yield little, if any, tangible progress. “The president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through,” Vice President Vance said.“The maximum the Iranian regime is prepared to give does not meet the minimum President Trump is prepared to accept,” the policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, Jason Brodsky, tells the Sun. Mr. Khamenei “rejects zero enrichment. He refuses limitations on the Islamic Republic’s missile program, and he refuses to end support for the terror proxies.”More than 50 fighter jets, including F-35s, F-16s, F-22s, E-3s AWACS, and refueling planes, arrived in the region Tuesday. The aircraft Gerald Ford strike group entered the Mediterranean on its way to the Gulf. At the same time, Iran closed the Hormuz Straits Tuesday for fire drills and is planning a joint naval exercise with Russia on Thursday. “Israel will be Iran’s first target if the US attacks,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps chief, Hossein Daghighi, told a Lebanese television station. Mr. Khamenei seems to prefer a war setback to making even the slightest diplomatic concessions. On Tuesday he vowed to sink an American aircraft carrier. “Khamanei increasingly believes his own propaganda,” a top Iran watcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Beni Sabti, tells the Sun. “In the past, he would follow an aggressive speech with a more conciliatory one. In the past he would balance his extremist advisers with more moderate voices. Now he is surrounded by extremists only.”In 2019 the Islamic Republic celebrated 40 years in power — a “significant, mystical number” in Farsi culture, Mr. Sabti says. He notes that in speeches and writings at that time, Mr. Khamenei started saying that the regime’s survival was proof that “God is with” the Islamic Republic. The regime survived despite the loss of the IRGC leader, Qassem Soleimani, to an American drone strike and Mr. Trump’s abandonment of the 2015 nuclear deal. President Biden’s easing of his predecessor’s “maximum pressure” policies strengthened the notion at Tehran that America can hardly harm the regime. Even last June’s 12-day war that significantly degraded the nuclear program and eliminated top regime operators made little dent in Mr. Khamenei’s perception of invincibility. “Trump made a mistake when he stopped Israel just as it started hitting IRGC targets, the Evin prison doors, and other symbols of the regime’s power,” Mr. Sabti says. “For Khamenei, that was an indication that America fears confrontation.”That false feeling of divine protection for a regime that in reality is besieged by military weakness and overwhelming internal pressures could well explain Mr. Khamenei’s refusal to ease tensions with America. As yet, the best nuclear concessions Tehran is offering are akin to a return to the 2015 deal. It also hints at a deal to allow foreign nuclear inspectors back into the country. In an X posting, Mr. Yadlin explained his prediction of a weekend war on the conclusion of several events, such as Thursday’s gathering of Mr. Trump’s Board of Peace and the ending of the Winter Olympics, as well as the amassing American military assets in the region. Renewed anti-regime protests could also raise the odds of war, as well as favorable weather conditions.“You’re seeing Israeli media buzz over the last 24 hours,” Mr. Brodsky says. “They have their antenna up. Something is cooking.” Since the 12-day war, Iran, aided by Russia, Communist China, and others, has rebuilt much of its ballistic missile arsenal. “I would not be surprised if they try to strike with missiles beyond the Middle East,” the chairman of Rafael, a top Israeli arms manufacturer, Yuval Steinitz, told a conference at Tel Aviv this week. “They may try to hit European countries — Berlin, Budapest, Vienna.”The Iranians, Mr. Steinitz added, “learned lessons from what happened in the 12-day war, and improved. But we also improved greatly and learned many things. And this time there is an additional element that did not exist in June: we have the big brother, the United States.”

Middle East Maneuvering Suggests American-Israeli Hostilities Against Iran Will Be Sooner Instead of Later

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