New Sunni Alliance Shuffles Deck on Middle East Power With Implications for Israel and NATO

Analysts and diplomats are working to unravel the geopolitical implications of a new defense pact binding the world’s most prominent Sunni Muslim powers in a NATO-like agreement to support one another if attacked.While seen initially as a bulwark against aggression by Shia Iran and its Middle East proxies, the agreement signed Friday by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan also has major implications for Israel and for NATO, of which Turkey is a key member.Named for the city in which it was signed, the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement, or Mecca Pact, states that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be regarded as an attack on all three. However details remain vague and it is unclear what level of military response would be required and under what circumstances.Nevertheless, with a combined population of about 372 million and a combined military budget of $125 billion, the new alliance constitutes a significant bloc capable of reordering security considerations across the Middle East.The president of Israel’s Shahvand Think Tank, Raghu Kondori, notes in the Times of Israel that Saudi Arabia “contributes financial power, energy influence, and a central position in the Gulf” to the new alliance. “Turkey possesses a substantial military-industrial base and one of the region’s most capable conventional forces. Pakistan provides extensive military experience and the strategic weight of a nuclear-armed state.”A nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Turkey Program, Rich Outzen, writes on the council’s website that Saudi Arabia “sees important counterweights to Iran (as does) Pakistan to India, but for Ankara adding an economic giant and a nuclear power to its team sharply enhances deterrence against Israel, a neighbor whose leaders increasingly speak of enmity and potential conflict with Turkey.”“In the wake of last year’s Israeli airstrike on Doha,” he adds, “countries in the region may see the need for collective air defense and other security measures to counter both Iran and Israel.”Talks toward forming an alliance began following the conclusion of a Saudi-Pakistani mutual defense agreement in September 2025 but accelerated with the onset of the Israeli-American war on Iran, which has exposed countries across the Middle East to new risks.Several analysts are saying the deal reflects a desire by the member countries to reduce their security dependence on America, which has not fully protected its allies from Iranian counterattacks during the war.“This new agreement is also further evidence that Riyadh is abandoning its quest for an Article 5–like security guarantee from Washington,” writes the director of the Project for Middle East Integration at the Atlantic Council, Allison Minor.“But it should not be seen as a rejection of Riyadh’s partnership with the United States. In fact, it could be consistent with U.S. efforts to recalibrate its own military role in the region and shift from a security guarantor to an integrator.” Ms. Minor previously served as a deputy special envoy for Yemen and as director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the National Security Council.Indeed, that development may not be seen as unwelcome by President Trump, who has been pushing America’s allies in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere to take more responsibility for their own defense.However the pact also reduces pressure on Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel as a hedge against Iranian power — a step Mr. Trump has demanded as a condition for helping Riyadh to develop a nuclear power capability.“For Israel, the pact may reduce the diplomatic leverage that normalization with Saudi Arabia was expected to produce,” Mr. Kondori writes. “It does not necessarily end the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization, but it gives Riyadh an additional strategic option and greater bargaining power.”Mr. Kondori also points out that “any future Israeli operation affecting the Gulf or involving Iranian-linked targets would also have to consider the possibility of a coordinated response from three powerful regional states.”Analysts are also working through a thorny network of implications for NATO, given Turkey’s central role in both alliances.“A serious dilemma could emerge if Saudi Arabia or Pakistan enters a military confrontation, determines that the conditions for activating the ‘Makkah Agreement’ have been met, and calls on Türkiye to fulfill its collective defense commitment while NATO members take a different view of the conflict,” explains an unsigned analysis on the Voice of Emirates website.“The situation would become even more sensitive if the confrontation involved a NATO member, a country closely aligned with an Alliance member, or a conflict in which Turkish military action directly affected broader NATO security interests.”

New Sunni Alliance Shuffles Deck on Middle East Power With Implications for Israel and NATO

New Sunni Alliance Shuffles Deck on Middle East Power With Implications for Israel and NATO

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