Can Hot Florida Teams Keep Up the Pace?

With the 2008 MLB season just past the quarter pole, events are starting to return to their natural order. The Angels, , Cubs, and Diamondbacks are leading their divisions, as many expected. C.C. Sabathia has gone from 2007 Cy Young winner to early-season pumpkin and back to Cy Young form. We’ve even got a Steinbrenner bending the ear of anyone in the press who’ll listen to him agitating for change.But head southeast and you’ll find the two biggest surprises in baseball: The Rays and Marlins are contending for first place.Heady times in Florida, no doubt. But baseball history is littered with examples of surprise teams that started fast, only to flame out and finish nowhere near the top of the heap. Can these two Sunshine State upstarts keep winning all year long?In the case of the Rays, the answer could very well be yes. Several advanced projection systems pegged Tampa to post its first winning season in franchise history this year. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecaster went a step further, calling an 88-win season and contention for the wild card.PECOTA saw the Rays making their biggest improvement on defense. In acquiring slick-fielding Jason Bartlett to replace the mishmash of Brendan Harris, Ben Zobrist, and company, the Rays found a big upgrade at the most important position on the diamond. Evan Longoria has been a big upgrade at third base, moving Akinori Iwamura over to second, where he’s become a bigger defensive asset. Subtracting Delmon Young from the outfield has also helped.Indeed, much of Tampa’s perceived pitching problems last year were actually the result of their defense failing to turn balls in play into outs. Last year, the Rays were dead last in the majors in that category (also known as Defensive Efficiency), converting just 66.2% of balls in play into outs. It should have been no surprise, then, to see Tampa post the worst team ERA last year, at 5.53. The Rays’ starters were the third-worst group in the game at 5.20; the bullpen was the worst in baseball by a wide margin, at 6.16.This season, the Rays have jumped to second in Defensive Efficiency, at 72.5%. It’s no surprise that their run prevention has also improved dramatically — a 3.68 team ERA, fifth-best in the majors.It isn’t only the defense, though. A combination of better luck and new personnel has given the pitching staff a big lift, especially in the bullpen. New closer Troy Percival sports a 2.12 ERA, with 15 strikeouts and just nine base runners allowed in 17 innings. After getting shuttled from the minors to the majors and from starting to relieving last year, J.P. Howell has emerged as a solid multi-inning reliever. Dan Wheeler, Kurt Birkins, and others have also pitched well. Credit management’s patience with young talent for the starting rotation’s improvement. When Scott Kazmir missed the first few weeks of the season due to injury, Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine stepped up — both have improved dramatically since last season.The clearest indicator of the Rays’ success has been its run differential. Through Sunday’s game, Tampa has scored 201 runs and allowed 176. Those totals give the team an expected won-lost record of 25-18 — almost matching their actual record of 25-19. With a balanced offense featuring B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Eric Hinske to complement the improved pitching and defense, plus a team budget that the front office is willing to expand to take on needed talent, expect this Rays team to contend all season long.On Florida’s other coast, the Marlins have found their early success thanks to the highest-scoring offense in the NL East. That seemed like a long shot given their blockbuster trade of franchise player Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers in the offseason. Fortunately, the Marlins kept their other franchise player. Hanley Ramirez has picked up right where he left off after last season’s breakout, adding an early .310 AVG/.395 OBA/.524 SLG to 2007’s line of .332/.386/.562 (meanwhile, Cabrera’s off to a slow start in Detroit and concerns about his doughy physique have resurfaced).If the Marlins only had Ramirez, that wouldn’t be enough to produce the division’s best offense. Fortunately, several other support players have stepped up this year. Dan Uggla has been every bit as dominant as second-base poster boy Chase Utley, posting a massive .316/.396/.671 line (fourth in MLB in OPS, third in SLG after Sunday’s game). Josh Willingham also put up an OPS over 1.000 before nagging back injuries knocked him out of the lineup. Mike Jacobs owns a subpar .298 OBA, but 11 homers and a .644 slugging average after Sunday’s game still make him a plus at first base. Support players such as Jeremy Hermida and Jorge Cantu have all come through at times.Unlike the Rays, though, the Marlins may be headed for a fall. It’s hard to see Uggla and Willingham imitating Lou Gehrig all season, especially with Willingham’s health a question mark. Moreover, Florida’s pitching looks pretty questionable after young ace Scott Olsen, with a mix of raw newcomers (Andrew Miller) and mediocre veterans (Mark Hendrickson) either already struggling or likely to regress. Olsen’s own 2.82 ERA looks likely to expand, too, given his ugly 27:26 strikeout-to-walk rate and his extremely lucky .196 batting average allowed on balls in play (second-lowest in the majors and some 100 points below typical league averages). The Marlins’ +7 run differential also suggests they’re not as good as their record — the Braves and Phillies have both fared much better in that category, with the Mets right behind.When all’s said and done, the biggest factor could be the play of both teams’ division and league rivals. As great as the Rays have looked, holding off the loaded defending champs will be a huge challenge, let alone topping the Yankees, should the Bombers ever get going. Contending for the wild card against a weaker field, on the other hand, looks like a good bet. As for the Marlins, they share a division with three enigmatic teams: the underachieving Mets, the loaded but erratic Phillies, and a Braves team that could easily win either 92 games, or 82, depending on how their young players fare.Regardless, they’re buzzing about baseball in the Sunshine State as we approach Memorial Day. That’s more than we’ve been able to say in years.Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.

Can Hot Florida Teams Keep Up the Pace?

Can Hot Florida Teams Keep Up the Pace?

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