Just 17 Weeks Left Before the Playoffs

As we enter the 2008 NFL regular season, one question is on everyone’s minds: Does the NFL regular season even mean anything anymore?For three straight years, a team has emerged as Super Bowl champion despite not owning one of the best records in the league. In two of those years, the team that won it all began the playoffs as the last seed in the conference. The Giants barely made the playoffs and had a regular-season turnover margin of minus-9, but went on to beat a Patriots team that many people thought was the greatest in league history.Despite that shocking result, however, it is too early to say that the NFL regular season has reached NHL-like levels of meaninglessness. The 2005 Steelers may have been a wild card, but they played better than their 11-5 record, and their championship was not a surprise. The 2006 Colts may not have had the best regular season, but they were in the middle of a string of championship-quality years.So while the Giants showed us that any team can win a title, that doesn’t mean any team should be expected to. The favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII are generally the same teams that have been favorites for the past few years. The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have the best organizations in football, the best coaching, and the best quarterbacks. The San Diego Chargers have the best talent up and down the roster. The NFC favorites once again include the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys.The Giants? They’ll be eclipsed in the headlines by the dramatic trade of Brett Favre to the Jets, and struggling for a wild card after losing their two top pass-rushers. Once again, they’re the underdogs. It’s okay; they did pretty well in that role a year ago.AFC EASTBuffalo BillsYOU KNOW Buffalo has not made the playoffs since 1999, the longest such streak in the league. The Bills have gone 7-9 for two straight seasons, with average offense and average defense, and they may want to consider changing the team colors to beige and off-white.YOU DON’T KNOW The Bills have drafted very well in recent years, and under the unexceptional 7-9 exterior is a roster filled with promising young talent. Nearly the entire starting lineup comes from the last four drafts.X-FACTOR The Bills haven’t been able to put a starting-quality receiver opposite Lee Evans since Eric Moulds got old. Is rookie James Hardy the answer?Projected Finish: 7-9 (again), ThirdMiami DolphinsYOU KNOW The Dolphins crashed and burned with a 1-15 season, but gave their fans hope by bringing in Bill Parcells as their top executive. Parcells has turned around four different franchises in the past, but each of those teams had something that the Dolphins lack: Bill Parcells as head coach.YOU DON’T KNOW The Dolphins actually weren’t that bad last year until the aborted “John Beck as starting quarterback” experiment. Six of their first 12 losses came by just a field goal. A team that scores 267 points and gives up 437 would normally expect to go 4-12, not 1-15.X-FACTOR How healthy is running back Ronnie Brown, coming off ACL surgery — and are the Dolphins serious about starting the far less effective Ricky Williams instead?Projected Finish: 5-11, FourthNew England PatriotsYOU KNOW The 2007 Patriots were one of the greatest teams in NFL history — until the defense gave up a touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress with less than a minute left in Super Bowl XLII. With the exception of cornerback Asante Samuel, all the major players are back for another go.YOU DON’T KNOW NFL schedule roulette has the AFC East playing the two Western divisions — which are also the league’s two weakest divisions. Add six games against their mediocre division rivals, and the Patriots end up with the easiest schedule in the league. It’s practically unfair.X-FACTOR What happens to the cornerbacks without Samuel? The Patriots are counting on a mixture of youngsters with injury issues (Ellis Hobbs, Brandon Meriweather) and free agent veterans whose histories can politely be called “subpar” (Fernando Bryant, Lewis Sanders).Projected Finish: 13-3, FirstNew York JetsYOU KNOW As you may have heard, the Jets acquired future Hall of Famer Brett Favre to play quarterback. They hope he can combine the arm strength of Kellen Clemens with the accuracy of Chad Pennington and the experience of Vinny Testaverde. Favre is just one of a number of veterans brought in this offseason — and he may not be the most important. That title probably goes to longtime Pittsburgh All-Pro Alan Faneca, who will fill the canyon-size hole at left guard created by the departure of Pete Kendall a year ago.YOU DON’T KNOW In general, NFL offense is far better when the quarterback lines up in the shotgun, but that’s actually not the case when you are playing against the Jets. New York had the league’s worst defensive DVOA against formations with a quarterback under center, but ranked second in defensive DVOA against shotgun formations. Perhaps they were so good against the shotgun because they saw it all the time in practice: The Jets’ offense used the shotgun more than any offense except for New England’s.X-FACTOR Is Kris Jenkins the impact defensive lineman this team needs, or just another player who doesn’t fit into Eric Mangini’s 3-4 defense?Projected Finish: 8-8, SecondAFC NORTHBaltimore RavensYOU KNOW For years, the Ravens have combined a terrible offense with a great defense. In 2006, they traded for quarterback Steve McNair, finally put together an average offense, and went 13-3. In 2007, McNair got injured and the offense collapsed — and when numerous defensive backs got injured, the defense struggled as well. The Ravens finished outside the top five in defensive DVOA for only the second time since 1999.YOU DON’T KNOW The Ravens fumbled 25 times on offense, but only recovered five of those fumbles. Those fumbles turned into 20 turnovers, where the average team would only have 12 or 13 turnovers. Fumble recovery rates show no consistency from year to year, so the Ravens are likely to have far fewer turnovers this year, even if they fumble the same number of times.X-FACTOR Who will play quarterback? Veteran Kyle Boller, who is currently suffering from a partially torn shoulder? Former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, who has leadership skills, but not NFL starter-quality passing skills? First-round pick and franchise quarterback of the future Joe Flacco? No matter how bad the offense is, the defense should rebound enough to make the Ravens competitive in a down year for the AFC North.Projected Finish: 9-7, FirstCincinnati BengalsYOU KNOW Keeping with recent Cincinnati tradition, the 2007 Bengals had a good offense and a terrible defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air. In the offseason, star receiver Chad Johnson demanded to be traded, made a huge stink in the press, then changed his mind and reported to camp as if nothing had ever happened. Unfortunately, he can’t play linebacker.YOU DON’T KNOW On the surface, it seems like the Bengals really struggled to get to the quarterback last year. They had a league-low 22 sacks. But they didn’t necessarily struggle to get near the quarterback. The Bengals hurried opposing quarterbacks on 13.5% of all pass plays, which is actually above the NFL average.X-FACTOR The Bengals started two recent first-round picks at cornerback. Johnathan Joseph is in his third season,;Leon Hall is in his second. Both struggled last year, but top-rated cornerbacks generally don’t mature until around their fourth season. If Joseph and Hall blossom a bit early, the Bengals might have an actual NFL-quality defense.Projected Finish: 6-10, FourthCleveland BrownsYOU KNOW The Browns finally had a young quarterback who could lead an offense filled with weapons such as receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow. Of course, the surprise was that the quarterback was former third-stringer Derek Anderson, not first-round rookie Brady Quinn.YOU DON’T KNOW The real reason for Cleveland’s improvement in 2007 was the offensive line, thanks to third overall pick Joe Thomas and free agent guard Eric Steinbach. No team had fewer blown blocks that led to sacks. Thomas had only one all year — early in the first game, when Charlie Frye was still playing quarterback.X-FACTOR The Browns allowed 4.5 yards per carry last year, 29th in the NFL. Desperate to stop the run, they went out this offseason and traded for two star defensive linemen, Shaun Rogers from the Lions and Corey Williams from the Packers. How will they make the transition to Cleveland’s 3-4 defensive scheme?Projected Finish: 7-9, ThirdPittsburgh SteelersYOU KNOW The Steelers were humming along at 6-2 midway through last year, then crashed in the second half thanks to poor play from their younger players and a cascade of injuries to their stars. Pittsburgh ranked fourth in DVOA from Week 1 through Week 9 — but then ranked 18th from Week 10 through Week 17. The Steelers had the largest second-half collapse of any team in the 13 years, for which we have DVOA statistics.YOU DON’T KNOW Last year, Ben Roethlisberger had to scramble on 15% of pass plays, the highest percentage in the league and more than twice the league average. The offensive line is going to be even more porous in 2008 now that All-Pro guard Alan Faneca has departed for New York.X-FACTOR The overrated Willie Parker is a boom-and-bust runner whose frequent stuffs at the line force Roethlisberger to constantly convert third-and-long. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall is a straight-ahead runner who should have more success getting steady gains — particularly given the struggles on the line that will block for both backs.Projected Finish: 8-8, SecondAFC SOUTHHouston TexansYOU KNOW In the first year under head coach Gary Kubiak, the Texans managed an 8-8 record thanks to an offense that put up points despite missing quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson for a few weeks due to injury. The defense played poorly, but all the defensive talent this team has accumulated over the past couple years — defensive end Mario Williams, defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, and linebacker DeMeco Ryans — means Houston’s defense could take a dramatic leap forward at any time.YOU DON’T KNOW Perhaps the best player on that young defense isn’t Williams, the 2006 first overall pick, or Ryans, the linebacker who led the NFL in tackles as a rookie two years ago. It might be cornerback Fred Bennett, a fourth-rounder from South Carolina who stepped into the lineup as a rookie when Dunta Robinson tore his ACL halfway through last year. In half a season, Bennett allowed fewer yards per pass in coverage than any other starting cornerback in the NFL.X-FACTOR Robinson’s health. If Bennett continues to play well, and Robinson can come back healthy, Houston will suddenly have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league.Projected Finish: 10-6, Third (wild card)Indianapolis ColtsYOU KNOW The less things change, the more they stay the same. The Colts’ offense was electric despite losing star receiver Marvin Harrison for most of the year, and the defense played as well as it did during the team’s Super Bowl run the year before. Unfortunately, another great year ended without a postseason win, after a bitter upset loss to San Diego.YOU DON’T KNOW As consistently good as the Colts’ offense is, their special teams are just as consistently bad. Indianapolis ranked dead last in the Football Outsiders special teams ratings last year. Highly-paid Adam Vinatieri isn’t even close to being the league’s best kicker anymore, and the kickoff and punt coverage teams are abysmal.X-FACTOR Injuries. The Colts usually have a lot of them, more than almost any other team, but not always to their most important players. Harrison seems to be back at full speed, and while Peyton Manning’s offseason knee surgery kept him out of the preseason, he should be fine to start in Week 1. But center Jeff Saturday could miss significant time after a knee injury suffered in last week’s preseason game. And will pass-rush superstar Dwight Freeney still have the same explosion off the edge after the foot surgery that ended his 2007 season early?Projected Finish: 12-4, FirstJacksonville JaguarsYOU KNOW Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio made the controversial decision to make David Garrard his starting quarterback while releasing quarterback Byron Leftwich right before the 2007 regular season. Garrard made Del Rio look like a genius with a season that far surpassed his previous performance as a backup: He completed 64% of passes with 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Add that to running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, and the good-as-usual defense, and by the end of the year some people thought the Jaguars might be good enough to keep the Patriots out of the Super Bowl.YOU DON’T KNOW The Jaguars signed Drayton Florence (ex-San Diego) to start at cornerback and moved incumbent starter Brian Williams to safety, but the numbers say that was the wrong decision. Last year, Williams had more passes defensed than Florence, allowed fewer yards per pass in coverage, and made his run tackles closer to the line of scrimmage.X-FACTOR The Jaguars were counting on first-round pick Derrick Harvey to help take their pass rush from good to great. He held out for all of training camp and didn’t sign until Wednesday. How long will it take him to get ready for the NFL?Projected Finish: 11-5, Second (wild card)Tennessee TitansYOU KNOW Despite having almost no passing game whatsoever, the league’s top defense (according to DVOA) dragged the Titans into the second AFC wild card spot. Everything revolved around defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who dominated the line of scrimmage like no other player in 2007. Unfortunately, defensive performance isn’t as consistent from year to year as offensive performance is.YOU DON’T KNOW The Titans have used a first- or second-round pick on a running back for three straight years, but they may finally have a superstar in rookie Chris Johnson. The East Carolina product ran an astonishing 4.24-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, and excels as both a runner and a receiver. Expect to see a number of plays with Johnson split out wide while LenDale White lines up behind the quarterback.X-FACTOR Vince Young didn’t really take a step backward in 2007 — he just didn’t take the step forward you would expect from a highly-drafted second-year quarterback. This year, will he finally make the improvements on his game that he should have made last year?Projected Finish: 6-10, FourthAFC WESTDenver BroncosYOU KNOW The Broncos missed the playoffs for the second straight year and suffered only their second losing season since 1999. A major offseason overhaul got rid of veterans such as John Lynch and Javon Walker, plus defensive coordinator Jim Bates and general manager Ted Sundquist. They also brought in a chorus line of subpar veteran receivers — Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, the already-waived Samie Parker — in a desperate attempt to find someone who can play opposite budding superstar Brandon Marshall. In the end, they’ll end up going with rookie Eddie Royal, who was drafted as a return specialist and still needs to develop the technique to be a starting NFL receiver.YOU DON’T KNOW Denver’s success over the past decade has always been built on the offensive line, but this year’s Denver line is the most inexperienced in at least a dozen years. With left tackle Matt Lepsis retired and veteran center Tom Nalen on the shelf after knee surgery, left guard Ben Hamilton will likely be the only starting Broncos lineman who has been with the team for more than two seasons.X-FACTOR Quarterback Jay Cutler struggled in his second season, and inexplicably lost 35 pounds during the season. This offseason produced an explanation: Cutler was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. We don’t know if the diabetes affected Cutler’s stamina and overall performance in 2007, but if it did, Cutler should improve significantly in 2008 — unless the inexperienced line can’t keep him upright.Projected Finish: 8-8, SecondKansas City ChiefsYOU KNOW The aging Chiefs finally disintegrated after a five-year run of playing good football — and, in particular, good offense. The team is in heavy rebuilding mode, but did a great job of snagging offensive and defensive linemen in this year’s draft.YOU DON’T KNOW Quarterback Brodie Croyle was chosen 85th overall in the 2006 draft. Between 1990 and 2005, 51 quarterbacks were drafted between the 50th and 120th selections. Those 51 quarterbacks combined for just six Pro Bowl appearances: three by Mark Brunell and one each by Neil O’Donnell, Brian Griese, and Kordell Stewart.X-FACTOR What does running back Larry Johnson have left after overuse in 2006 (an NFL-record 416 carries) led to a subpar, injury-riddled 2007 (just 3.5 yards a carry)?Projected Finish: 5-11, ThirdOakland RaidersYOU KNOW The circus continues in Oakland, where head coach Lane Kiffin and owner Al Davis spent the offseason fighting through press quotes over whether Kiffin would resign or not. The Raiders are coming off another dismal season, during which the passing game was terrible and the defensive line imploded. The Raiders have decent linebackers and possibly the best cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha, but those guys can’t stop the other offense when the defensive line is giving up a ridiculous, league-worst 4.8 yards a carry.YOU DON’T KNOW Over the last couple years, the Raiders have actually adopted the zone-blocking style popularized by their archrivals in Denver — and while the offensive line still struggles to pass-block, the run-blocking was good last year. Now the linemen will get to clear holes for electrifying rookie Darren McFadden, selected by Oakland fourth overall.X-FACTOR Was quarterback JaMarcus Russell really worth the top pick in last year’s draft — and how raw will he be in his first season as the starter?Projected Finish: 3-13, FourthSan Diego ChargersYOU KNOW The Chargers have so much talent that not even hiring Norv Turner as head coach could screw this team up. After struggling somewhat in the early season, the Chargers went on a big second-half run, and then upset the Colts before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. This team is still loaded with star talent, from running back LaDainian Tomlinson to tight end Antonio Gates to last year’s NFL interception leader, cornerback Antonio Cromartie.YOU DON’T KNOW One of the big reasons for San Diego’s success over the past couple seasons has been special teams. The kick and punt coverage is strong, punter Mike Scifres gets the best hang time in the business, and Darren Sproles is an excellent return man who also replaces Michael Turner as Tomlinson’s backup.X-FACTOR All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman is going to try to play the season with two torn knee ligaments, despite visiting countless doctors who told him he needed season-ending surgery.Projected Finish: 12-4, FirstNFC EASTDallas CowboysYOU KNOW The Cowboys surged in Wade Phillips’s first year as head coach, winning 13 games en route to the NFC East crown and a first-round bye — only to fall apart against an inspired Giants team in the playoffs. An NFL-record 13 Cowboys weare selected to the Pro Bowl, led by linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who emerged as the league’s best pass rusher. The Cowboys sent three members of their secondary to the Pro Bowl, but still considered it a weak enough spot this offseason to import troubled Titans cornerback Pacman Jones and spend a first-round pick on corner Mike Jenkins.YOU DON’T KNOW The 2008 Cowboys were one of the five healthiest teams in the league for a fifth straight season. No other team in the league has been able to keep up anything close to such a remarkable run of health, which points to a medical staff worthy of the Hall of Fame, an astounding run of luck, or a mix of both. Left guard Kyle Kosier has already gone down with a foot injury, which doesn’t bode well for the season.X-FACTOR Rookie halfback Felix Jones averaged an astounding 7.6 yards a carry at Arkansas while living in the shadows of Darren McFadden. While Jones showed off elite speed in college, his 4.47 40-yard-dash at the scouting combine was unimpressive, and there are concerns that the trick offense he played in didn’t properly prepare him to be a pro back. If Jones isn’t ready, Pro Bowl back Marion Barber will have to carry the load all by himself — something he’s never done before.Projected Finish: 9-7, Second (wild card)New York GiantsYOU KNOW The Giants went on arguably the most remarkable playoff run in the history of American professional sports, culminating in a win over the heavily favored Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Since then, Michael Strahan retired, Jeremy Shockey was traded, and Osi Umenyiora blew out his knee. A Giants defense predicated upon an elite defensive line can’t afford to lose two linemen such as Strahan and Umenyiora.YOU DON’T KNOW The Giants went 7-1 on the road last year (10-1 if you include playoffs). Since 1986, 11 teams have won three or more games on the road more than they did at home in a given season. The season before, the Giants were an average of two wins worse on the road than they were at home, and in the season after their remarkable road work, they were a half-win worse. Those teams, as a whole, averaged two fewer wins in that season.X-FACTOR Mathias Kiwanuka moves to defensive end across from Justin Tuck after spending a year as a fish out of water at linebacker. If he’s a good enough pass rusher to take some of the heat off Tuck, the Giants’ defensive game plan is salvageable. If not, it may be a long year in the Meadowlands.Projected Finish: 9-7, SecondPhiladelphia EaglesYOU KNOW Philadelphia’s veterans aged rapidly in 2007, with mediocre seasons put in by longtime contributors Donovan McNabb, Tra Thomas, Lito Sheppard, and Brian Dawkins. Halfback Brian Westbrook dazzled as a one-man show at times, willing the Eagles’ offense forward on the ground and through the air more often — and more effectively — than ever before. In the offseason, they signed the league’s top free agent, ex-New England cornerback Asante Samuel.YOU DON’T KNOW The Eagles’ fall from grace has been correlated with the demise of their performance on special teams. The team ranked in the top five from 2000 through 2004 in special teams Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, but over the last three years, they’ve seen that ranking fall to 17th, 22nd, and, in 2007, 31st.X-FACTOR Westbrook. If he can stay healthy and produce the way he did last year, the Eagles have a threat that can keep them in any game; if he misses any length of time, the Philadelphia offense is likely to look very ordinary.Projected Finish: 11-5, FirstWashington RedskinsYOU KNOW The tragic death of Sean Taylor sent this team on a four-game surge that pushed them into the playoffs, with a huge help coming from the sterling quarterback play of career backup Todd Collins. The Cinderella ride came to an end in a miserable loss at Seattle in the playoffs. Head coach Joe Gibbs retired, and after a farcical interview cycle, the team hired an expected candidate, offensive coordinator Jim Zorn, to be the team’s new coach. Zorn becomes the first head coach in more than 20 years to be hired despite not serving as an NFL coordinator or college head coach beforehand. A season-ending injury to defensive end Phillip Daniels caused the team to trade for Jason Taylor, who spent the offseason dancing with people who might be considered stars.YOU DON’T KNOW Despite being the team that most frequently rushed six, seven, or more players on passing plays, the Redskins ranked last in the league in quarterback hurries.X-FACTOR Quarterback Jason Campbell physically looks like an elite NFL quarterback, but he’s had to endure seven different offensive coordinators in eight seasons above the high school level. As goes Campbell, so goes the team.Projected Finish: 7-9, FourthNFC NORTHChicago BearsYOU KNOW Operating under the “We Were Awful With You, So We Can’t Be Worse Without You” principle, the Bears benched their starting quarterback, cut their starting running back for off-field indiscretions, and didn’t make an effort to sign either of their starting wide receivers in free agency. The tackle they drafted in the first round had a herniated disc in his back, and when it flared up and he scheduled season-ending surgery, the general manager denied the injury existed at draft time — only for the player to tell the press the truth. We’re not naming names because no one involved wants to be attached to this disaster of an offense.YOU DON’T KNOW The Bears were 14th in the league in defensive DVOA on first down, and 16th on second down, but second on third down: That sort of difference is almost always a fluke, and an indicator that the team’s performance will regress in the following year.X-FACTOR Obviously Devin Hester, who the Bears hope will continue his unprecedented return work while emerging as a full-time wide receiver. The list of starting NFL wide receivers who didn’t play the position in college numbers exactly one: Antwaan Randle El.Projected Finish: 7-9, ThirdDetroit LionsYOU KNOW The Lions continue to serve as a cautionary tale for anyone who might consider becoming a fan of a football team: They move to another new offensive scheme this year, one where the two elite wide receivers they’ve selected will spend the majority of their time blocking on the outside.YOU DON’T KNOW According to Football Outsiders’ defensive stats, when the Lions didn’t pressure the quarterback, they had the worst pass defense in football. When they did, they had the best pass defense in football. So, of course, they traded All-Pro tackle Shaun Rogers away to Cleveland.X-FACTOR Kevin Smith ran for 2,567 yards in college last year, but the 450 carries he took to get them may have put too many punches on his carry card.Projected Finish: 4-12, FourthGreen Bay PackersYOU KNOW Brett Favre’s gone. In his place stands 2005 first-round pick Aaron Rodgers, who has the benefit of a strong offensive line and multiple emerging receivers. The expertly-drafted team has depth up and down the lineup, led by a defensive line that takes the title of best in football away from the Giants starting this year.YOU DON’T KNOW Although he’s only dropped back to pass in a Packers uniform 68 times, Rodgers has been sacked nine times — a frightening 13.2% of the time. Over the same time frame, Favre was sacked on 3.4% of all dropbacks.X-FACTOR It has to be Rodgers. The tone of the man’s obituary is likely to be determined by how he performs on 16 weekends this year. That’s a pressure no quarterback of his generation has had to go through, and although it’s not quantifiable, it’s as real as any number.Projected Finish: 11-5, FirstMinnesota VikingsYOU KNOW The Vikings dominated on the ground, as rookie Adrian Peterson emerged as the league’s most exciting running back in 2007, setting the league record for most rushing yards in a single game; defensively, the unrelated Kevin and Pat Williams kept the team toward the top of the leaderboard in run defense. Concerned about their ability to rush the passer, the team traded their first-round pick for NFL sack leader Jared Allen, and gave him a $74 million contract that required primary owner Zygmunt Wilf to put out a cash call to his ownership group to finance the deal.YOU DON’T KNOW The Vikings’ starting defensive linemen have been the healthiest in football by a large margin since the arrival of Kevin Williams in 2003. Williams has only missed two games in a stellar career.X-FACTOR Quarterback, where Tarvaris Jackson is the one obvious part of the team that isn’t among the NFL elite. If Jackson can merely achieve adequacy, the Vikings are the favorites in the NFC.Projected Finish: 10-6, Second (wild card)NFC SOUTHAtlanta FalconsYOU KNOW The jailing of Michael Vick was the beginning of a nightmare season that few NFL teams have experienced, with the nadir occurring as head coach Bobby Petrino gleefully burned his NFL bridges to head back to Arkansas. The team started a painful rebuilding process by selecting Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan with the draft’s third pick.YOU DON’T KNOW The Falcons spent three consecutive first-round picks on wide receivers in 2003 (used to acquire Peerless Price), 2004 (Michael Jenkins), and 2005 (Roddy White). White’s 2007 was the first year in which any of the receivers mustered more than 1,000 yards.X-FACTOR Running back Jerious Norwood averaged an impressive 6 yards a carry despite running behind the league’s worst offensive line in 2007. The team was so impressed that they signed Chargers back Michael Turner. Norwood’s criminally underrated talent could lead him elsewhere as a restricted free agent following the season.Projected Finish: 3-13, FourthCarolina PanthersYOU KNOW A season-ending injury to Jake Delhomme forced the Panthers to start David Carr at quarterback. Injuries to Carr then forced them to start Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore. At least there was an explanation for the problems on offense; on defense, star pass rusher Julius Peppers had just 2.5 sacks for no discernible reason.YOU DON’T KNOW Delhomme was having a fantastic season when he got hurt — he had completed 64.7% of his passes while throwing eight touchdowns against only one interception.X-FACTOR Wide receiver, where the failure of 2007 second-round pick Dwayne Jarrett to act professionally off the field led the Panthers to bring in former star Muhsin Muhammad and injury-prone dynamo D.J. Hackett on short-term deals. One needs to emerge across from Smith to take the heat off him.Projected Finish: 9-7, SecondNew Orleans SaintsYOU KNOW The hangover from an exhilarating 2006 season saw both starting halfbacks suffer injuries and key free-agent signing Jason David showing himself as the worst cornerback in football, giving up an average of 12.4 yards per attempt in his direction.YOU DON’T KNOW Despite suffering a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and a dislocated elbow in the 2005 playoffs and 2006 Pro Bowl, respectively, quarterback Drew Brees has taken more than 98% of the snaps from center in his two seasons as a Saint.X-FACTOR Rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis has a rare combination of size and motor, and the Saints definitely need to improve when it comes to rushing the passer.Projected Finish: 8-8, ThirdTampa Bay BuccaneersYOU KNOW Jeff Garcia and company rode an easy schedule to the NFC South title — only to fall to the Giants in the playoffs. After flirting with the idea of trading for Brett Favre in the offseason, the team ended up sticking with Garcia, which was indicative of a trend: Despite having more than $30 million in cap room entering the offseason, the team made only one signing in free agency, adding center Jeff Faine from division rivals New Orleans.YOU DON’T KNOW A huge factor driving the Buccaneers’ return to prominence was defensive health. After being 27th in the league in defensive injuries in 2006, they were up to fifth in 2007.X-FACTOR Left tackle Donald Penn was expected to return to the bench after former Giant Luke Petitgout returned from injury, but the Buccaneers cut Petitgout after he failed a physical last week. Now, the undrafted second-year player isn’t the stopgap — he’s the stopper.Projected Finish: 11-5, FirstNFC WESTArizona CardinalsYOU KNOW Kurt Warner’s been named the starting quarterback ahead of former USC star Matt Leinart (for now), while the contract status of star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald prevented the team from retaining several of its free agents, notably linebacker Calvin Pace, who signed with the Jets. Fitzgerald eventually received a new deal, which upset fellow wideout Anquan Boldin enough to make him request a trade.YOU DIDN’T KNOW Arizona’s quarterbacks were hit in the act of throwing (without being sacked) more often than any other team in football.X-FACTOR Head coach Ken Whisenhunt seems to change his mind on the quarterback situation series to series. That sort of quarterback fluctuation has never worked for an NFL team on a regular basis.Projected Finish: 7-9, SecondSt. Louis RamsYOU KNOW A rash of injuries decimated St. Louis, particularly on the offensive line, where the five projected starters managed to make it through a combined total of 15 starts in their expected positions. The team as a whole saw 14 of 22 offensive and defensive starters miss time due to injury.YOU DIDN’T KNOW Despite having speedy receivers such as Torry Holt and Drew Bennett, the Rams’ receivers averaged only 3.6 yards after the catch in 2007, the worst average in football.X-FACTOR Left tackle Orlando Pace is already a lock for the Hall of Fame, but at 32, he has little to play for and has suffered season-ending injuries each of the last two years. If he can’t go, the Rams will have to start Alex Barron out of position at left tackle. Barron has led the league in penalties over the past three years.Projected Finish: 5-11, ThirdSan Francisco 49ersYOU KNOW The team’s given up on quarterback Alex Smith after three seasons and three offensive coordinators, with avowed offensive guru Mike Martz choosing journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan to take over the 49ers’ new offensive attack. The bigger question is who the quarterback will throw to, with highly-touted tight end Vernon Davis failing to develop and no wide receiver of significant consequence on the roster.YOU DIDN’T KNOW The 49ers’ offense was consistently awful last year. Their offensive DVOA was 31st in the league on first down, last on second down, and last on third down.X-FACTOR Outside linebacker Manny Lawson, whose torn ACL cost the team its best pass rusher last year. Lawson will need to combine with free agent signing Justin Smith to give the team a desperately needed pass rush.Projected Finish: 4-12, FourthSeattle SeahawksYOU KNOW The Seahawks have emerged as the Atlanta Braves of the NFL, consistently winning a weak division year after year, but struggling in the playoffs short for a run that’s dramatically affected by an awful officiating job on the biggest stage. Unlike the Braves, though, the Seahawks haven’t made it back to the title picture to win. With Mike Holmgren retiring, this could be their last chance.YOU DIDN’T KNOW Deposed running back Shaun Alexander is the third Associated Press MVP to lose his job two years after winning the award — both Kurt Warner and Steve McNair suffered the same fate. Not a single team came forward to sign Alexander after Seattle waived him in the offseason.X-FACTOR Wide receiver, where injuries to starters Bobby Engram and Deion Branch leave the team dangerously thin. Nate Burleson’s had success in the past, but the onus is on former seventh-round pick Ben Obomanu to emerge across from him as a viable target.Projected Finish: 10-6, First

Just 17 Weeks Left Before the Playoffs

Just 17 Weeks Left Before the Playoffs

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