Owens May Bring Denver Some Rocky Mountain Refreshment

Terrell Owens has not played football since October 30, but perhaps more importantly to him, he hasn’t been front page news since his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, botched the press conference eight days later and one day after the Philadelphia Eagles suspended him for “conduct detrimental to the team.”This week Owens made his return to the headlines when he and Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan met to discuss a possible role for the troubled wide receiver in Denver. If a deal can be worked out, the Broncos immediately become prohibitive favorites to represent the AFC in next year’s Super Bowl.But let’s not hand Broncos owner Pat Bowlen the Lombardi Trophy just yet. For starters, Owens still has five years remaining on the $49 million contract he signed with the Eagles in 2004. Philadelphia has encouraged Owens to seek a trade, and in addition to Denver, the Redskins, Falcons, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Dolphins have all expressed interest. The Eagles would prefer to trade Owens, but this will depend on how the market sets itself over the next few weeks. If nothing is worked out by the end of February, Philadelphia will likely cut Owens rather than hand him the $5 million roster bonus he’s due in early March. One way or the other, the organization has made it clear he will not be back for the 2006 season.If the Broncos do decide they want Owens, they might be willing package their no. 2 receiver, Ashley Lelie, in a deal with the Eagles, though a late round draft pick seems more likely. For Philadelphia, a trade involving Lelie would solve the immediate problem of getting something in return for Owens, but the lingering issue of an offense without a true no. 1 receiver would remain. For the Broncos, whether they acquire Owens through a trade or free agency, the stakes are even higher, but the risk might be worth it.No one doubts Owens’s game-changing ability, just as no one doubts his ability to divide a locker room. Shanahan does have a history of taking chances on so-called risky players, though. Some, like Gerard Warren and Todd Sauerbrun, have worked out. Others, like Maurice Clarett and Dale Carter, haven’t. One reason the coach might take a chance on Owens is that the Broncos are particularly well-suited to give him what he wants: a chance to catch a lot of passes for a championship caliber team.Broncos wide receivers caught a total of eight touchdowns this season. In the seven games Owens played, he caught six. If Owens ends up in Denver, he will presumably replace Rod Smith as the no. 1 receiver, with Smith replacing Lelie as the backup.According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement system (DPAR) – which measures the total number of points scored on plays when a wide receiver catches the ball compared to a replacement-level receiver in the same situation – Lelie ranked 47th among wideouts. Despite his shortened season, Owens was 27th, ahead of players like Amani Toomer (35th) and Keyshawn Johnson (32nd). It’s no wonder the Broncos’ receivers need help.Thanks to their superb running game and the fact that they rarely trailed this season, the Broncos were able to mask the shortcomings of their wide receiver corps. The 35-year-old Smith (who ranked 10th in wide receiver DPAR) had another strong season on the surface, but his stats betrayed a startlingly thin passing game. Smith had more than twice as many receptions (85) as Lelie (42) and accounted for half the receiving yards and three quarters of all receiving touchdowns for Broncos.But when the AFC title game rolled around, the Pittsburgh Steelers set out to contain Smith, stop the run, and make the other offensive players beat them – in that order. Denver fell behind early, was forced to abandon the run, and tried unsuccessfully to win the game on the arm of Jake Plummer.Another measure of consistency tracked by Football Outsiders is the percentage of completed passes to a receiver. In Owens’s last full season, 2004, he caught 61% of the passes thrown to him. In 2005, Smith caught 67%, while Lelie only managed to grab 48%. It’s not unreasonable to suggest, then, that Owens’s presence would have been the difference against Pittsburgh.Still, don’t expect the Broncos to trade Lelie. Even if Denver acquires Owens, Lelie would still be an important part of the offense. With Owens and Smith as the no. 1 and no. 2 options, Lelie and his gaudy 18.3 yards per reception could move to the slot position. At 6-foot-3, Lelie would give most nickel backs and safeties nightmares, and his ability to stretch the field would open up underneath routes for Jeb Putzier, who has quietly emerged as one of the AFC’s best pass-catching tight ends.Would Owens fit in in Denver and improve the Broncos? All else being equal, absolutely. In 2003, the season prior to the Eagles acquiring Owens, Philadelphia’s top two wideouts ranked 38th and 72nd in DPAR. With Owens the following season, they improved to 10th and 43rd. Owens’s talent is obvious, but his ability to create opportunities for his teammates by dictating how teams defend him is frequently underrated. Lelie, Putzier, Plummer, and the rest of the Denver offense will all become better simply by having him on the field.Mr. Wilson is a regular writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

Owens May Bring Denver Some Rocky Mountain Refreshment

Owens May Bring Denver Some Rocky Mountain Refreshment

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