Unlikely National League Contenders Alive and Kicking

By the time you read this, there will be only five games to play. Only last September, the Senior Circuit gave fans a photo finish, as the Phillies surprised even themselves by getting back into the race for the NL wild-card race. The Astros mounted a seemingly impossible rally in the NL Central to win nine straight with three to play, only a half-game back on the desperately slumping Cardinals.This year, the Phillies are again making a late charge. But this time it’s being mounted simultaneously at the Mets and the wild-card slot. The Colorado Rockies and even the Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, have both come back into the playoff picture within seasons that seemed over only a few short weeks ago. The Phillies and Rockies both have some interesting similarities — quality lineups in their primes that depend on home-grown stars, veterans knocking around in the pen, and serious problems in their rotations that they’ve managed to patch with some rookie help.The Rockies may well rank as the league’s biggest surprise — but playing .500 and then rattling off an eight-game winning streak is enough to elevate a team into contention in today’s wild-card-enhanced format. That run has been generated by the team’s core of talent that they’ve nurtured and produced, whether it’s veteran first baseman Todd Helton, the blossoming of young veteran outfielders Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, or the arrival of rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Add in the contributions of outfielders Ryan Spilborghs and Cory Sullivan, and the payoff on Kazuo Matsui (who wasn’t quite as done as Mets fans may have believed last summer), and you’ve got a lineup delivering enough runs to not just make the continuing excellence of lefty Jeff Francis stand up, but also to exploit the recent hot streaks of youngsters Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Beyond that, the Rockies get into trouble, as veterans Josh Fogg and Mark Redman don’t have a whole lot to offer. But single-game success might make enough of a difference to put Colorado in its first postseason since 1995, the perfect cap to an already-achieved franchise record for wins in a season.The Phillies have broken with last year’s premature surrender, even patching up their infield when MVP candidate Chase Utley missed a month with injury, by picking up White Sox secondsacked Tadahito Iguchi. Past problems with depth might have meant serious problems down the stretch when they also lost right fielder Shane Victorino to a strained calf. But GM Pat Gillick had Jayson Werth on deck. A former Orioles prospect that Gillick drafted while running Baltimore in 1997, Werth proved to be talented enough to reach base at a better than .400 clip down the stretch in Victorino’s place. Gillick’s same flexibility and long memory have also delivered rewards in the club’s third baseman, another relative unknown, Greg Dobbs — a former Mariners farmhand Gillick knew from his time fronting Seattle’s operation. Plugging those add-ons to a lineup that already boasted sluggers Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard, shortstop Jimmy Rollins, and left fielder Pat Burrell secured the Phillies’ status as having the league’s best offense. Even with the helpful dimensions of Citizens Bank Park factored in, the Phillies rank second only to the Yankees in team Equivalent Average, .277 to .279 — and that’s counting their pitcher’s hitting.The problem remains their doubtful rotation, where staff ace Cole Hamels’s ailing arm might be the difference between glory and golf. If he can make his next start on Friday, the Phillies will have to consider that a boon. Patched in around him are journeymen Jamie Moyer, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton, as well as rookie surprise Kyle Kendrick. All of them aren’t reliable enough to keep manager Charlie Manuel from playing Captain Hook any time after the fourth inning, with the only incentive to avoid pulling anybody being a relatively shallow pen. It will make for some hair-raising decisions in the days to come, where the danger is that one of the overworked relievers who’ve helped get them this far — someone like Geoff Geary or J.C. Romero — unfairly becomes a goat.The Braves’ chances are slight. But they’re a direct product of their schedule, so they have the one advantage of being able to do something about their slim shot by gunning for a sweep of the Phillies during the week — taking a top rival for the wild-card down a few pegs in the process — and then taking their chances against the still-dead Astros this weekend, where the only thing Houston has left to play for is avoiding last place in their division. Still, manager Bobby Cox will get to use his three best starters against the Phillies’ fearsome offense — in order, Chuck James (4.23 Fair Runs Allowed, 3.6 Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement), Tim Hudson (3.33, 6.7), then John Smoltz (3.14, 6.2). Even if they sweep, and even if they decide to start the trio on three days’ rest (setting up Smoltz to pitch in any tie breaker next week), they’d still have to decide which journeyman right-hander — Buddy Carlyle or Jeff Bennett — to risk throwing in Houston’s bandbox on Thursday. Add into that the backstory that this should be the end of center fielder Andruw Jones’s affiliation with the team as he heads into free agency, and there’s an extra element of pride in play as the franchise tries to recapture some shred of the glory of its 11-year run of consecutive playoff appearances.Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.

Unlikely National League Contenders Alive and Kicking

Unlikely National League Contenders Alive and Kicking

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