The Winningest Wild Card Weekend

Not a single team in the AFC South or NFC East finished the 2007 regular season with a losing record, and those divisions provided all four of this year’s wild card playoff teams. Jacksonville is the hot wild card team nobody wants to play, while Washington and Tennessee want to prove they didn’t “sneak in” to the playoffs in order to quickly disappear.REDSKINS (9–7) AT SEAHAWKS (10–6) SATURDAY, 4:30 P.M.The first game of the weekend is all about feeling: Washington is riding an emotional four-game winning streak, playing in memory of their late teammate, Sean Taylor. Seattle rides on the passion of its fans, who cause more opponent false starts at Qwest Field than at any other NFL stadium.Both Seattle and Washington are known for their big-name running backs, but both teams are actually more efficient when passing the ball. Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) (which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent) rank the Seattle offense ninth in passing and 22nd in rushing, while the Washington offense is 12th in passing and 23rd in rushing.Clinton Portis has excelled recently, but he’s still averaging less than four yards per carry during the Redskins’ streak. Seahawks’ star Shaun Alexander is averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry this season, while his backup, Maurice Morris, gains 4.5 yards per carry. At the same time, Matt Hasselbeck will distribute the ball to Seattle’s deep wide receiver corps, while Todd Collins will try to continue his magical season for Washington. The longtime backup has led the Redskins to all four of their recent wins following an injury to starter Jason Campbell.Both teams have above-average defenses, roughly equivalent with different strengths. The Seahawks depend on their front seven to stop the run and rush the passer; behind that, they play the kind of cover 2 zone that veterans such as Collins often excel at manipulating. The Redskins have much better cornerbacks, such as the great Shawn Springs, but are just average against the run and have one of the worst pass rushes in the league.Over the course of the whole season, Seattle has been the better team, but not by much. Who wins this game will come down to execution and what each team believes in more: home-field advantage, or the emotional power of memorializing a fallen teammate.JAGUARS (11–5) AT STEELERS (10–6)SATURDAY, 8 P.M.Since midseason, no team has improved more than Jacksonville, and no team has declined more than Pittsburgh. The signature win in Jacksonville’s recent string of success came three weeks ago, when they beat the Steelers 29–22 in Pittsburgh. Now they return to the Steel City for a rematch.Our DVOA ratings show the path of each team’s trajectory. After nine weeks, Jacksonville ranked 13th in offense and 19th in defense. Since Week 10, the Jaguars are second in offense (behind New England) and sixth in defense.On the other hand, the Steelers ranked fourth in offense and second in defense at midseason. Since Week 10, the Steelers are 18th in offense and 14th in defense.Pittsburgh’s troubles have come from a combination of sloppy defense and injuries. The defense has struggled without defensive end Aaron Smith and safety Troy Polamalu, who should now be healthy for the postseason. On offense, the Steelers are now down to their third-string left tackle, Trai Essex. This is a problem because only one offensive line gave up more sacks per pass play than the Steelers’ this season. Some say the Steelers’ most important injury was to running back Willie Parker’s broken leg, but that’s not actually as big of a problem: Backup Najeh Davenport was far more effective this season.The Jaguars are also known as a run-first offense, and their running game has been spectacular in recent weeks. Veteran Fred Taylor is averaging 6.6 yards per carry over his past seven games, and Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 216 yards on 37 carries in Jacksonville’s first head-to-head with Pittsburgh. But the Jaguars pass as well as they run, and they like to throw deep. Quarterback David Garrard threw 18 touchdown passes with just three interceptions this season.Jacksonville’s defense is also good, but it can be exploited. The Jaguars struggle to stop runs up the middle — Davenport’s specialty — and they’ve given up some big pass plays to slot receivers when the opposition goes to three or more wideouts.Some think this first game will be a Jacksonville blowout. In fact, the Jaguars only won by a touchdown against Pittsburgh three weeks ago. This game has a good chance of being just as close.TITANS (10–6) AT CHARGERS (11–5)SATURDAY, 4:30 P.M.Like the other AFC wild card game, this is a rematch of a recent contest. Back in Week 14, San Diego came back from a two-touchdown deficit and beat the Titans 23–17 in overtime. That game established a basic theme: There’s only so long you can hold down a talented team such as San Diego, and there’s only so long the Tennessee defense can hold out without help from the offense.Tennessee finished with the top defense of the year according to DVOA, and they look even better if we don’t consider the times when massive defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth was injured. Haynesworth requires a double team, and when he was on the field, the Titans rated as one of the top 10 defenses of the past dozen years. There is one important place where the Tennessee defense has problems: They can’t stop the run on third down. San Diego’s offense was the second-best in the league running on third down.The Titans have the best defense measured over a full season, but over the second half of the year, the best defense belongs to San Diego. The defense started to turn around when cornerback Antonio Cromartie finally entered the starting lineup in Week 10, and improved cornerback play has combined with an excellent pass rush to create a defense heavily weighted toward stopping the pass. For the season, the Chargers rank second in DVOA against the pass, but 19th against the run.That could be an issue, since Tennessee’s offense is built around the ground game. Tennessee is just mediocre running the ball, but the Titans were one of three teams to run on more than half of all plays because their passing game was even worse. Tennessee isn’t even sure who their quarterback will be this Sunday. If Vince Young can’t play because of a strained quad, veteran Kerry Collins will run the offense. That may not be such a bad thing, because Young regressed as a passer this year. On the other hand, without the threat of Young scrambling to the outside, it is easier to concentrate on shutting down running backs LenDale White and Chris Brown.In the first game, Tennessee controlled San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers for three quarters, but the offense couldn’t get drive-extending first downs to close out the upset. It’s hard to imagine that getting any easier now that Tennessee will be on San Diego’s home turf.Mr. Schatz is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

The Winningest Wild Card Weekend

The Winningest Wild Card Weekend

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